Patrick Hosking
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From Leeds to Leicester and Nottingham to Ipswich they have sprung up. Block upon block of new apartments in the centre of town. The acres of timber flooring could surface a medium-sized county. Countless Smeg fridges, Brabantia rubbish bins and Gaggia espresso machines have been harnessed to give the show flats just the right tone. But if Alastair Stewart, a housebuilding analyst with Dresdner Kleinwort, is even half-right, the roof is caving in on this dreamy world of loft-style living. There just aren’t enough affluent young urbanites to buy or rent all this new space without big price falls. Ipswich, bluntly, is not Manhattan.
Moreover, the boom of the past few years has been fuelled not only by reckless bank lending but also by a “conspiracy of acquiescence” between developers and valuers at best and, in many cases, downright fraud. That is likely to make the ensuing bust all the more painful.
Mr Stewart has been bearish about the prospects for apartment valuations and for builders for some time, but now he is being heeded. His report yesterday thumped the shares of Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey, Bovis and others. Their values are less than a half of what they were a year ago and there could be further falls.
Most big builders are seriously exposed to the flats sector. Tough planning rules and the desire to cram ever more housing units on to a single plot have encouraged them to abandon their traditional habitat of edge-of-town greenfield housing estates in favour of city brownfield sites. Flats as a proportion of all housing starts have rocketed from 10 per cent to 15 per cent at the turn of the century to 49 per cent.
Builders, financiers and regulators are rapidly waking up to the problem. The Financial Services Authority revealed last week that it was investigating more than 200 cases of mortgage fraud centred on new-build city centre flats. Surveyors are suddenly being urged to dust down their profession rulebooks and err on the side of caution when valuing flats. Prices in some cities, notably Leeds, are plunging.
Barely a day goes by without another mortgage lender tightening the terms at which it lends. They are getting more selective and buy-to-let purchasers of city flats are their least favourite prospects.
Mr Stewart’s concern is over the damage to housebuilders. Sales volumes are falling and they are having to cut prices or introduce ever bigger incentives to shift newly built properties. Land market values are on the turn. This could prove devastating for housebuilder valuations because their share prices are underpinned by their land banks.
But there is a wider issue here. Souring sentiment in the flats market could deepen the malaise in the wider housing market. Some vulnerable people have been sucked into borrowing more than they can afford to buy flats. Valuers may have lied to buyers, buyers may have lied to lenders, builders may have lied to banks. If Nationwide Building Society is right and fraud is “endemic” in city-centre flats, there is going to be an embarrassing mess left on that immaculate flooring.
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The right product in the right place will sell, not all apartment schemes are in city centre urban splash locations and anything priced around the stamp duty level of £125k will be attractive to first time buyers.
However, competition for land is still fierce and the population is crying out for housing, but planning legislation combined with land values push developers into building apartments.
Currently in the North East where I am the best prices for land are being paid by care home operators who are free from affordable housing provisions. How long before all we have is flats and care homes. It is the planning legislation that requires updating a national planning policy based on the needs of the South East is flawed, a regional strategy is needed, what is affrdable in London is not in Newcastle.
Richard Brown, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Liverpool for instance is awash with developement and the seafront resembles a huge buildiing site. Some one is going to get very badly burned here as the prospect of even a fraction of the twelve thousand flats, shops and stores finding tenants are bleak. It is far cheaper in this city now to rent a luxury apartment for the odd night than to stay in a cheap hotel.
It can only get cheaper
Davd Nammory, Liverpool,
If I understand what has been publushe recently, the incredible rising of the property market was a big scam, after all.
Well, I hope you enjoy the imminent crush!
riccardo, brussels,
Coventry, which is always been pretty much a yuppie-free zone, has a fair few of these developments now, mostly bought by gullible BTL landlords. They are more expensive then a small moderned 2-bedroomed terraced house within walking distance of the city centre.
Whilst prices for houses will certainly fall - after all it is the land value that has risen rather than the bricks and mortar on it - prices for apartments will crash big time. They are leasehold properties after all, not freehold.
Paul, Coventry,
I'm the kind of person who would want to live in one of these flats. I'm single, want to be in the city centre (and as a bonus, such blocks are largely child-free).
But no, I can't afford it. I'm only a teacher.
Rita, newcastle, northumberland
Why all the doom and gloom. We the public get high quality appartments on the cheap. Maybe a teacher or nurse or fireman will start be able to afford to get on the property ladder for a change. I couldn't be happier for them. The developers and landowners have been making a killing for the last 15 years if they haven't then they should be out of business.
And please no nonsense, we were "lied to buy the valuers" you should pay what you can afford, and no more than you think the property worth yourself.
What this crisis means is that some property companies are going to have to tighten their belts. BOO HOO. What it also means is that for a brief window of time some new, quality properties are coming onto the market at a faster rate than there is demand for them. ABOUT TIME.
If only we English weren't such a chronically miserable bunch of people I think we could actually have some fun one day.
Anna, London,
"Builders, financiers and regulators are rapidly waking up to the problem."
Huh, what about about the media which has been preaching the gospel according to "housing experts" without any dissent, for the past several years. Are they also rapidly waking up at the same time as the experts, after falling asleep on the job?
Saying that there was "conspiracy of acquiescence" between the developers and valuers is like the pot calling the kettle black!
anthony, london, england
I work in a Leeds city centre office and my colleagues and I all agree that these tower blocks, for that is what they are, are the slums of the future. Britain made the mistake with flats for the poor in the 60's, the same mistake is being made with flats for the affluent now. I feel for those who've been duped by developers into buying a flat as a home, but I have little sympathy for BTL investors who have aided and abetted such stupidity.
AJ, Leeds, UK
Dot com bubble -> housing bubble. I just wish people were a little more intelligent with their investing. Its obvious that it is nothing more than speculation and off table discounts pushing new build flat prices up. Double digit inflation together with huge multiple salary mortgages should of been a clear sign
I just wish the FSA had jumped in a few years ago, its already far too late and the damage has been. Its going to be a big correction.
Gavin , London,
It's not as if we've got to wait for it to happen, it's already here. Flat Prices have collapsed - Flats in Manchester which 3 years ago sold for £220,000 fetched £110,000 at auction last week.
The ONS reckons the average wage is £23,700, but average household income is £33,000 so the maximum long term average property price that can be supported is at most 4 times that even with low interest rates. So the average house price has to fall to somewhere in the region of £135,00, or a third from current values.
Dave, Manchester,
It will be interesting to see if local councils start to make use of their powers under the 2004 Housing Act to make Empty Dwelling Management Orders, a peculiarly stalinist bit of legislation which means that if you leave your property empty the council can come along and let it to someone over your head. You get the rent, but lose control of it. If you can prove that you are using it as a second home or - more to the point - that it is "genuinely" on the market for sale or rent you are exempt from EDMOs. But that begs the question - what level of price/rent counts as making a "genuine" effort to sell/rent the property if the market starts to fall?
Anne Murphy, London, UK
I have visited relatives in Leeds three or four times a year for the past 20 years. Over the last five years or so I have driven past the city centre flats being constructed, culminating in the construction of the recent glass monstrosity. I have become incredulous that there could possibly be enough single, childless people to fill all those apartments. If you visit the area it is hard to believe that so many people could want to live in an area with so few of the facilities necessary for normal living and so close to some very unpleasant and dangerous neighbourhoods. All I see is dark, soulless dangerous looking canyons; fine in the evening when the local bars are open but at night and during day a grim place to be. The impression is of the inhabitants holed up in their little box, trapped until the next working day starts. I suspect that, with time, the new flats will go the same way as the 60s flats in those dreadful neighbourhoods next door - sink estates.
Dave, So'ton, UK
Housebuilders build houses where the UK planning system will let them. Housebuilders will not build houses they know they cannot sell.
The planning system requires densities that only apartments will serve.
Sarah, Manchester,
Spot on re Ipswich ,there are going to be so many tears shed here over the next 24 months, at the end of the day this crisis has been brought about by GREEDY DEVELOPERS and I just hope & pray they get caught big time
Neville Cornforth, Haughley Green, Suffolk
While Blair and Brown were proclaiming to support home ownership, the developers were busy building property almost exclusively for BTL investors. Complete and utter mismanagement by the government, is the only way to describe housing policy in the UK. Now they will do even more damage to the economy trying to resist the inevitable crash. (sorry property bulls, but house prices at 8x incomes in a weakening economy just dont work)
A Harris, Kettering, UK
The market for such developments was never particularly clear in the first place. Who wants to live in a flat, executive or otherwise? Obviously only those without families. Older people downsizing will not be looking for a city centre location so the obvious target was young, single "professionals". That would be fine if these developments were within the purcashing power of this demographic but most were priced at 200k and upwards whereas few young professionals earn much more than 35k outside of London.
Developments in Liverpool, Leicester, Glasgow etc therefore were never priced for the local market. Even buy-to-let didn't add up as the rents weren't sufficient to cover mortgage payments. Instead of pricing to market, however, the developers just tried to prop up values with hype and discounts - they now deserve everything they get.
MB, Edinburgh,
Given that flats are on the whole aimed at single 'professionals' whose salaries are in the region of 25k - 35k, how could anybody think that 150k-200k for a two bed flat was a sustainable proposition.
The whole construction & supporting financial industry has believed its own marketing hype and now realises they've spent a decade developing the slums of the future.
But that's ok because the commission has already been spent.
Guy, Wilts,
According to the local evening newspaper there are over 600 newly built flats that have remained vacant in Nottingham for over a year. To make a bad situation worse there are a number of developments that are nearly finished and will be on the market soon.
However the asking prices sought have not fallen. My guess is that valuers and banks are doing everything they can to give the impression that these dud properties are a 'sound investment' when the reality is that prices are falling whilst depreciation and maintenance costs continue to be incurred.
if the banks wish to continue to support this charade that is their decision but do not expect the taxpayer to bail them out again because of their greed and stupidity.
Steve Chambers, Nottingham, England
What, you mean everyone doesnt want to live in a 2 bedroom apartment?
I am shocked, I really didnt see this coming, honestly...
I never understood who these things were aimed and who was actualy buying them, or even renting them.
You'll be buying blocks of flats for the cost of the penthouse suit soon enough.
We really should have a housing market and flat market, make things much much simpler.
Dominic, Manchester, UK
Moreover people, at heart, do not want flats - they want family homes. As property prices fall across all sectors these family homes will become more affordable and buyers will skip flats, the traditional first-rung, and buy houses instead.
Back in the last crash flats fell in price like a lift without cables - you couldn't give them away. This crash will probably be even worse.
peter kiddle , st neots, uk
Seeing as an elderly retired warrant officer with a distinguished record of service to his country has been imprisoned for civil disobedience, I sincerely hope that if surveyors have acquiesced to pressure to overvalue from developers, or anyone else for that matter, they will face both long sentences in prison and civil claims for losses incurred by their victims. As long as all of the parties guilty of such fraud (either directly or conspiratorially) are brought to book ,of course. It's no good allowing Banks and Building Societies to turn a blind eye to such breaches, for political or commercial expedience, as one Building Society appeared to have done when, a few years ago, Mr Mandelson failed to disclose, when applying for a mortgage on a home in Notting Hill, that he was not finding the balance of the purchase price and the mortgage out of his own pocket, having borrowed a substantial sum from Geoffrey Robinson! Too often, the law applies only to the least powerful and poor,
nemo, nivillac, france
If more honesty and common sense had been involved the mess could have been avoided. Instead it is a familiar story of overpowering greed, stupidity and misplaced confidence.
Some of these flats will halve in value in the next 2 years because buyers will not be able to get a mortgage.
Kevin Herbert, Greater Manchester, UK