Gary Duncan: Economic view
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“I reappointed him, and he disappointed me.” A decade and a half ago, that was the peevish verdict of George Bush Sr, the former US President, on his decision to reinstall Alan Greenspan at the helm of the Federal Reserve in 1991, in the midst of the recession of the early Nineties.
After his ignominious ejection from the White House in January 1993 by disaffected American voters, President Bush Sr pinned much of the blame on Dr Greenspan’s failure to deliver more aggressive cuts in US interest rates that might have staved off the worst of that economic slump.
If a fretful Gordon Brown was watching on Wednesday as the Bank of England unveiled its latest strategy for the British economy, the Prime Minister may well have wondered whether he might end up feeling much the same way over his decision last month to hand Mervyn King a second term as Governor of the Bank.
Mr King’s flinty and uncompromising message on Britain’s economic prospects was bleak enough to leave any occupant of No 10 wringing his hands over the likely evaporation of the country’s “feelgood factor”.
For an embattled Mr Brown, contemplating a countdown to the next election now apparently set to be blighted by economic misery, the Governor’s message must have come close to inducing apoplexy.
Mr King himself could be forgiven for privately savouring the thought of a brooding Prime Minister’s knitted brows. Having been left for months in an uncomfortable limbo as Mr Brown made up his mind over whether he should be allowed to stay on at the Bank, the Governor might be entitled to a little Schadenfreude.
For the rest of us, there was little cheer in the Governor’s grim prognosis. Despite his entreaties against “lurid headlines of doom and gloom”, Mr King left little doubt that the Bank sees a torrid time ahead for the economy. Battered by the world downturn, a tightening of lending conditions for households and businesses and a severe toll on consumer demand from soaring food and energy bills, as well as a sliding housing market, Britain’s growth is set to slow sharply during the next 12 months. The Bank’s central view is that annual growth in GDP will reach a nadir of 1.7 per cent by the summer.
This downswing may be severe enough to take the economy to the brink of a technical recession, the Governor conceded. He admitted, too, that the squeeze on household spending power from the surging cost of food and fuel spelt a “genuine reduction in our standard of living”.
Confronted by this dismal forecast, the Prime Minister must surely have been praying that Mr King would pledge that the Bank would ride to the rescue with steep cuts in interest rates. Yet Mr Brown’s distress must have morphed swiftly to despair as the Governor made clear that he envisaged a rather different reaction.
For Mr King and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the dilemma is that, even as steep rises in food and energy prices sap consumer demand, they are also set to combine with the dearer import bills — triggered by a sharp fall in the pound — to drive inflation sharply upwards.
The consequence is that, on the Bank’s forecasts, consumer price inflation would soar from 2.2 per cent now to 3 per cent or more by autumn, were the MPC to fulfil financial markets’ bets and cut base rates to 4.5 per cent by early next year (from 5.25 per cent now).
Even with more modest base rate cuts, the Governor made plain that at some point this year it was still “odds-on” that inflation would reach the 3.1 per cent level that would force him to pen another explanatory letter to the Chancellor.
The Bank is, then, caught between a rock and a hard place, facing what Mr King calls a “difficult balancing act”, as it strives to shore up growth and prevent inflationary pressures becoming entrenched.
As the Governor emphasised, the MPC accepts that there is little that it can do in the short term about an inevitable spike in prices this year, because it takes 18 months or more for any changes in interest rates to feed through fully.
Yet the Bank’s real — and quite proper — fear is that unless it acts as tough as the Governor talked last week, then the big price increases now being felt will lead individuals and businesses to come to expect higher inflation in the future.
In turn, that could lead workers to make steeper wage demands and companies to attempt to bolster margins, making those expected inflationary pressures a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The clear implication, then, is that the Bank will be slower and more cautious in delivering cuts in borrowing costs than the markets expect and than Mr Brown would hope. Yet while Mr King and the MPC are understandably likely to maintain this “tough love” message for much of this year, ultimately it is probable that base rates will fall farther than the Governor implied last week — farther, even, than is implied by the aggressive rate cuts anticipated by the markets.
While this may come as a tiny grain of comfort for a fretting Prime Minister, any consolation will be scant, for the chief reason to expect such an outcome is that the MPC is probably still too optimistic over the outlook for growth. Indeed, the large “downside risks” included in its forecasts implicitly acknowledge this threat.
The Bank is probably also too pessimistic over inflation.
As Paul Dales, of Capital Economics, notes, last week’s forecasts combined the MPC’s weakest growth forecast for five years with the highest projected levels of inflation since its target was switched to the consumer price index in 2003. That looks like an odd combination.
Eventually, however, it is likely that, as a still-weaker outcome for growth emerges this year, the worst of the present inflationary dangers will subside and rates will tumble towards 4 per cent in a year’s time. In the meantime, though, Mr Brown will be left to dread that the Government’s poll ratings will suffer a similar fate.
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The good thing about 'boom and bust' was that at least we had the boom. For those of us foolish enough to work and not grab state hand-outs the so called economic growth means nothing. Any increase in living standards we have earnt has been taken in tax to pay out state benefits and fund public sector waste.
Relying on benefits and funding a lifesyle by unprotected sexual intercourse is now it would seem a career option.
Richard Ingle, Norwich,
From a Government that boasts that it has abolished "boom and bust" can we now have the admission that having had the boom we are now getting the bust?
stephen bull, fontes, france
Is this not what happend with the great depression of America in the 1930's?
The Government now own the mortgages of thousands of voters mainly in the Labour heartland of the North East
If anyone defaults on their Northern Rock mortgage the Government will effectively own the property which is collateral for the mortgage.
That means the Government will be in the position of making people homeless! Will the Government do this over the next 18 months of run in to an election?
Is the Northern Rock saga following the same direction JP Morgan/Rockerfellers plan to collapse the economy of America for their owngain??
It looks like we are heading for a major recession - how engineered is this ?
louise, Manchester, England
I suspect that the MPC or HMG is less in control than the impression that is given. Globalisation and leveraged financial instruments have contributed to financial problems of a scale that can hardly be addressed by politicians and national banks. As an example I cite Northern Rock, one of the second division UK banks which has sucked up funds on a scale which is almost unmanagable for the British Government. This one disaster alone along with high public expenditure limits future scope to influence adverse economic events.
Mr King is beating his chest and requesting the rest of us (non-bankers) to reach for our hairshirts. I'm not convinced that will do.
peter boswell, chagford , UK
Bob Travers of Stevenage has it about right, in my view.Successive governments have allowed U.K.mnfg to die. The UK is an import economy, cut the rates and increase the import costs, the UK consumer will just suffer more, and it will be even tougher on those members of the community who are heavily in debt. House buyers need not think that rate cuts will ease their problems because lenders will be seeking to widen their margins and increase their reserves.
A.Hoare, Cajarc, France
Over the last 15 days Wheat futures have risen by over 25% .Soya nearly as much. Now I am told the Chinese winter oil seed rape crop has in many areas
been devastated by the excessive cold weather, [this is their main cooking oil].
Trouble is basic food price inflation affects the poor the most! And now we multiply the price rises with a devalued pound. And tonight on ITV we were told of a dramatic credit squeeze to come. Better get praying
Mr Brown.
David Vinter, Louth, Lincs., UK.
Dear me. I do wish people would stop obsessing over the Pound. It's not the sixties any more. The Pound does not have a fixed exchange rate, and movements in the Pound tell you something about comparative interest rates, and almost nothing about the underlying economy.
If you want something to worry about, worry about education and the lack of basic training at many levels in the British workforce. What globalization means is that everyone has to compete and no-one can shelter behind tariff barriers. That means that well-trained workforces will succeed and people who sit at home watching daytime TV will fail.
All this twittering about a 5p change up or down in the Pound is just a distraction. Worse, it's a way to avoid thinking about the real problem - an ignorant and uneducated population increasingly dependent on Government hand-outs..
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA
As a serving soldier currently waiting to deploy to Afghanistan I find it absolutely abhorrent that a so called member of the public is to face jail for the planned abduction and decapitation of a British soldier. If this crime were committed we would all be shocked and dismayed that muslim extremists could do this in OUR country, with OUR laws, with OUR security. The truth of the matter is that this is no longer OUR country with those who will abide by our laws but still OUR soldiers put their lives on the line every day to try and make a difference for the rest of us sat at home watching it all on TV. What sentence will be bestowed upon the perpertrayer of this henious crime? He will go to jail of course for a very long time which will cost the tax payer a pretty penny no doubt while his poor hard done by family grab all the benefits they can get their hands on. He may even get to do a course to claim for more money when what he really deserves is to be deported family and all.
Sgt R Kimsey, Paderborn, Germany
Dominic in Manchester. A Sterling collapse is pretty bad for those of us who get paid in Sterling, who have our savings in Sterling and who do not wish to see food and fuel prices hiked up even further. So long as interest rates are kept ridiculously low, then inflation will not 'spike', it will carry on rising and with it, standards of living will carry on falling.
As you say a real, if not notional, collapse in asset prices will make Britain competitive again. Lowering interest rates to keep property prices artificially high is precisely what we don't need. Let 'em fall back to sensible levels, based on more realistic income multiples. You should be asking why is a house pice collapse deemed to be 'bad', when it isn't?
Paul, Coventry,
Keep the pound!
I'm selling sterling at the mo and doing OK.
Come on dollar, beat that pound...
Tex, London,
Oddly enough I have read articles in the Times over the last couple of years telling us that in comparison with Europe we are the lucky ones because they do not wave their credit cards around and so have missed the opportunity to drown themselves in a sea of debt. I have also read articles by economists in the Times where the Germans have been castigated for daring to have a manufacturing industry (which has given them a positive balance of trade with China ) and for being tightpursed and thrifty.. There have been numerous passages in all the media about how fortunate we have been,how the all powerful sterling reflects our financial genius and how visitors from Europe have drooled in envy at the wealth on display in the suburbs of Windsor and Epsom. Well the party is over and now comes the price and to get ourselves out of this is going to be extremely painful and will require politicians who have more guts than the present effete mob.
george, Exeter, U K
Maybe I've missed something, but why is a sterling collapse "bad"?
Surely a real, if not notional, collapse in asset prices will make Britain competitive again?
Bretton woods devalutation, ERM collapse, and now this.
All caused by an over valued sterling.
Inflation will spike, but maybe it needs to?
Wipe out the service economy and build a real on in its place.
Dominic, Manchester, UK
Perhaps it is time to do what is for some the unthinkable - join the Euro. We are in Europe and want to trade with the rest of the continental market, such a move makes sense. At the moment we are suffering huge costs for the privilege of keeping the £.... Of course the currency market and traders are doing very well out of the situation. One man's meat is another's poison etc.
cwillnic, Cardiff,
What's the most frightening word in economics? "Leverage".
A deceit for borrowing more and more money until a fiscal collapse sets in.
Leveraging is like swinging a leaking bucket full of water. You have to stop sooner or later and then, water runs out.
Britain plc, consumer and corporate is up to its neck in debts
and technically, insolvent. Propped up by the mirage of property values.
The only recourse now for its citizens? Get out and get out fast.
leigh vernier, riyadh, ksa
"worst of the present inflationary dangers will subside and rates will tumble towards 4 per cent in a yearâs time".
Dream on Gary. The Pound would crumble as the world's cash sloshed out of Pounds into Euros, Aussies and maybe even back into Dollars. Just 0.25% last December cut caused a 6% decrease in the Pound. Imports from Asia are rising in price, take the Pound down as well and the resulting inflationary spiral will be up to double figures by June next year.
Also you would be annihilating savers and pensioners cash deposits by giving a rate of return well under the rate of inflation.
The MPC should stick to its mandate and its guns and get this right; nterest rates at or above the current level. We are in for a period of lower growth and falling house prices. Slashing the interest rates would destabilise the economy and not provide help, as the banks are not lending willy nilly.
And they should switch back to the RPI instead of the misleading CPI.
Bob Travels, Stevenage,
Brown frowns while England drowns - but what does he care? Scotlands doing OK - wake up England.
Marty, London, England