Rosemary Righter: Economic view
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When politicians start trotting out assurances that “the economic fundamentals are sound”, start to worry. If they add that “there is no need to rush for the lifeboats”, a quick check on the location of the lifebelts is in order - particularly if you entertain doubts about the crew's storm-management record. Back in 1997, my aircraft landed in Seoul at the very moment when the won went into freefall. Ministers and officials just kept parroting “sound fundamentals, sound fundamentals” right up to the moment when South Korea jumped into the IMF lifeboat.
Gordon Brown presented last week's “credit crunch” mini-summit with his fellow European G8 leaders - Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy and the just-defenestrated Romano Prodi - as a lofty exercise in global leadership: “We've been discussing how to maintain economic stability ... We believe we can persuade the whole international community of the need for the reforms we propose.” But it was the European Union's who gave the game away. “We can be confident. The fundamentals of the EU economy are sound ... Nobody is speaking about a recession in Europe.” The real point of this get-together was blame-shifting: global factors, not structural domestic weaknesses, were the problem; and Europe's leaders were hard at work heading off the risks of contagion.
This self-conscious parade of confidence at Downing Street was the reverse of reassuring - particularly when, on the other side of the Atlantic, the Federal Reserve was bluntly acknowledging the “downside risks” that had prompted its two-tier interest rate cuts. As politicians will, the famous five spent most of their time together happily designing bolts for the stable door - stronger regulatory frameworks, closer co-ordination, greater transparency in financial markets in general and credit ratings agencies in particular (to be secured, this being a European gathering, “by regulatory action if progress is not made”). Finally and inevitably, they issued a call for reform of “the global financial architecture”.
This is a particular buzzy bee in the Brown bonnet. His big idea is to turn the World Bank into an environmental lending agency (Prime Minister, did no one tell you the Bank has been in the environmental lending game for decades?) and to revamp the IMF as a global financial early warning system.
Talk about generals fighting the last war. Frameworks and mechanisms are loved by Mr Brown much as Lego is loved by small boys, but national responsibility for supervising large and complex economies cannot simply be sloughed off on the IMF. Yes, there is a need for greater transparency, to ensure that markets are better informed, and yes, regulators need to concert, as they already do at the Financial Stability Forum in Basel. But much of that “global management” rhetoric is posturing. When markets go into overdrive, they find ways round the controls set up in the wake of previous financial crises. The sub-prime crash and its accompanying debris came about because money was cheap, risk had become badly mispriced and bankers' incentives were skewed. Of this, most regulatory authorities were aware. So long as the going was good, you could have had the best global early warning system imaginable and it would not have worked because no one was listening. Call it the Société Générale syndrome. And why would one expect the IMF to pick up the Northern Rock danger signals that the Treasury and the Financial Services Authority both missed?
It is much more fun saving the world than fixing the plumbing at home. But the plumbing needs attention. On display, yet again, is the contrast between America's rapid financial reflexes and the semi-paralysis inflicted on most of Europe's governments by the surrender of their powers to set national interest rates and the scant fiscal leeway available to them. Despite the gloomy January jobs data in the US, the chances are that America's economic retrenchment will be painful but shorter than seemed likely before the Fed acted and Congress rushed to supplement rate cuts with a hefty fiscal stimulus. There is little, by contrast, that most European governments can do to reverse the steep slides in consumer and business confidence that Eurostat is already recording.
With headline eurozone inflation hitting 3.2 per cent in January, the highest for a decade, and with strong upward pressures on wages in Germany and France, little mercy can be expected from the European Central Bank, while public debt and deficits are already too high in the major economies to allow for significant pump-priming. So far, so familiar. But this time there is no room for British schadenfreude, because the British economy is also running out of road.
As Chancellor, Mr Brown's favourite boast was “no more boom and bust”. It will haunt him from now on. “Prudent” fiscal policy, which he claimed almost to have invented, is about saving in sunny seasons against a rainy day. It is starting to rain hard. And Mr Brown has not been saving. The public finances are as sick as a soaked parrot. Alistair Darling has medicine ready, but it risks choking the patient.
Over the next five years, public spending is set to fall to an eight-year low as a proportion of national income, while taxes rise to a 24-year high. The Treasury's goal is to move current spending into the black in 2009-10, meeting Mr Brown's famous but shopsoiled golden rule about balancing current budgets over the economic cycle; and to keep public debt below 40 per cent of GDP, the other Brown golden rule. No less than 48 per cent of the “proceeds of growth” will pour into government coffers. But this assumes that the “proceeds of growth” will hold up, as taxes rise and public spending falls against a background of sagging house prices and weaker tax revenues from the City. The Institute for Fiscal Studies, which bases its estimates on the Treasury's own economic models, pointed out last week how unlikely that is. Its conclusion: to meet Treasury targets, Alistair Darling would need to raise taxes in next month's Budget by £8billion. For political reasons, he will not do it, and for economic reasons, he should not. But not even Gordon Brown will dare to repeat for much longer that Britain's economic fundamentals are sound.
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Europe's fundamentals are sound. Sorry, I mean Germany and by extension, europe's fundamentals are sound. They'er exporting lots and lots of things people want to buy.
The cost of living is an awful lot lower and wages are about the same. People are not being squeezed
Britain, on the other hand has a financial service based economy with massively overinflated asset prices across the board. Your average brit is in over their heads in debt and betting the house on an industry that's just been thoroughtly discredited.
No, Europe is not a worry. Europe varys widely, but it's engine is healthy. Britain's engine (London ) is in big, big trouble.
Frank , Nuremberg, Germany
a) stronger regulatory frameworks,
b) closer co-ordination,
c) greater transparency in financial markets
d) reform of the global financial architecture
All evidence of someone obsessed with
a) process rather than outcomes
b) meddling instead of allowing a proper adjustment
Dear Prudence has some tought choices (don't kid yourself that Darling will make these decisions) - just watch for some breath taking statistical acrobatics to justify borrowing the £8 billion to close the public spending gap rather than raise taxes (which would come in 2009-2010 when he has to go tothe polls) Prudence has already shown he cares more for being re-elected that anything else
Tony, Cardiff,
'To meet Treasury targets, Alistair Darling would need to raise taxes in next month's Budget by £8billion'.
This does not include the very many billions for the Northern Rock imbecility.
Noel Falconer MEcon, COUIZA, France
Basically Brown has gambled that growth would always be enough to cover his ever increasing spending plans.He has mortgaged the British Economy to the hilt with no back up plan for when things wrong.
Darling will now carry the can of trying to sort out the mess.There is not alot he can do Brown has messed it all up.Of coarse Brown is now going to blame everyone else for his shortsightedness.
NIgelWheatcroft, wimbledon,
Don't be surprised if we experience a baby boom as people can no longer afford to go out as much as they did during the credit boom.
MM, London,
These same assurances and interventions were made prior to the Crash of 1929! It only prolonged the misery. What Brown and co are trying to do is fool some of the people for some time. What they have not been able to and will not be able to do is fool all the people all the time. A majority can now see through the lies but like rabbits are caught with the headlight of debt between their eyes
Lloyd, Solihull,
It seems to me that there is a misunderstanding between the concept of prosperity and economic growth.
Prosperity requires economic activity which creates real value for example exploitation of technical inventions, adding efficiency to existing activities, discovering and exploiting mineral wealth, using natural resources(hopefully wisely!).
Economic growth however can be created, for example, by inflation (e.g.rising house prices), looser credit availability, expanded public consumption.
It seems to me that we have too much of the latter and not much of the former, the prognosis for our country may therefore not be good. However I have to own up to being almost 60 years of age with the normal tendency to pessimism. I expect we will muddle along somehow as we usually do.
peter boswell, chagford, uk
Governments has allowed the housing bubble to flourish in the UK. the US and Europe. Bubbles are dangerous and in the end destablising when they burst. People flushed with the rising prices of their home, have used the equity released by spending. Now as prices fall they have stopped. so spending and growth is coming down fast. For an essential like housing a governments duty must surely be to control bubbles, instead in Britain, under Mr Prescots' housing policy has been laughable with a moratorium on new house building in many parts here in the North West. The concentration has been on building inner city flats, many of which remain empty. Many small builders have had a very lean time and desirable property was pumped up in price. Now that the affordability of new homes for first time buyers has arrived on the political agenda, coucils have been bribed to find more housing land. They even print forms asking for suggestions. A 'U' turn, just in time for the price dowturn.
Diddly Do, Liverpool,
Why sojuld Brown have saved for a rainy day? Prudence Brown, remember has declared the 'end of boom and bust'. And if Brown has declared it, we all know it must be true - it is never going to rain on the British exconomy ever again, so spend, spend, spend!
And that is what he did. He's blown the house-keeping allowance on free beer for the public sector and rose tinted glasses for the rest.
Edwin, Bucharest,
I was happily agreeing with this article until I got to the statutory swipe at the ECB and the EU. Public debt and deficits to high in the major economies... whoa there Rosemary old girl. Not the case in Germany as I'm sure you very well know. Look, pay attention I'll say this only once 'the job of he ECB is to protect the value of money not run economies'. Got it? Read the ECB charter. If you are a saver in the EU and getting at tops 4.5% on your little saving book, actually at best 3% you are not going to be a very happy bunny if the ECB did nothing about tackling 3% inflation. You would not sit back and say go ahead Gordy let it rip if that's what it takes to save business and your lopsided economy, wipe out my savings, what do I care. I'm pretty glad as a citizen of Europe that I have the ECB to thank for not playing the indulgent aunt to governments and banks that have made a mess of it any more than it has already, which makes me wish I was a naughty banker not a careful saver.
John Walter, Bonn, Germany
"When politicians start trotting out assurances that âthe economic fundamentals are soundâ, start to worry."
Spot on. I am luxky in that I saw this coming over 5 years ago, totally changed my financing, and have done very well out of bullion.
Many others are going to be in dire straights.
Anyone who believes a word that comes out of Brown's mouth is deeply unfortunate.
Just a shame many journalists are still parotting the "inflation is 2%" joke. It isn't just politicians who are to blame.
Simon Robinson, Gibraltar, Gibraltar
This is your pilot speaking. There is no cause for alarm.
ian, wilts,
Your phrase that its much better fixing the world than the plumbing at home seems to me the guiding mantra of Blair and to a greater extent Brown who is shovelling our hard earned taxes at far flung forlorn hopes at a rate of knots.Still after promoting the biggest boom in uk history I personally would not want to concentrate on the potentially ghastly downside when I could be swanning around the world telling other countries how not to run their economies and and at the same time handing out early christmas presents to failed banana republics in the guise of helping the needy.
Philip, Ipswich,
Brown's deceit and incompetence has been there for everyone to see for several years, but almost all economic organisations and commentators have been praising his success. He was building up the probability of disaster for the whoile time, by squandering the econmic success instead of preparing for an inevitable downturn. Careful management for the economy might have had slower (but still good growth), a mild recession and room for fiscal stimulus. Now we are facing a slowdown with nothing. All we can hope is that the gloom mongers are wrong and that the slowdown remains just that.
Neil Murphy, cromer,
Reality TV shows will love this. Mr and Mrs Greedy being evicted by the bailifs. How hardup housewives are forced to go on the game. How to buy second cars. How Mr and Mrs Average can cut their bills by putting newspapers under their childrens vests. Every recesssion has a silver lining.
Robin, London,
The only "fundamentals" of the modern UK economy are rising house prices and rising public spending. Thats it . In the absence of these we're in big trouble. Look forward to repossessions ,empty restaurants and TV Programmes about how to make your socks last longer.
John Bailey, Southampton , UK
There is nothing sound about the economic fundamentals of the UK. I walk past houses all the time that are worth more than half a million pounds in a neighbourhood full of graffitti and crime. There is nothing sound about that: it is over-priced. Britain has become only two things: a very corrupt business centre in the City; and a massive welfare hand-out system with people rotting away doing little.
Bob Macdonald, London,
The G8 leaders sitting around the table in Downing Street was rather like the main board directors coming to see what was going on in a wholly owned subsidiaries that was giving cause for concern.
MikeS, Leeds,