Gerard Baker, US Editor
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The last time that the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by three quarters
of a percentage point or more in one go was in August 1982. Back then the
global economy was enveloped in a thick cloud of misery. Total US economic
output had fallen by 7.5 per cent over the previous year and unemployment
had risen to its highest level since the Great Depression.
The last time the Fed cut rates at an emergency meeting outside its regular
schedule of policymaking gatherings was on the first day that markets
resumed trading after the September 11 terrorist attacks. Markets had been
closed for four straight days and the fear of dislocation caused by the
attacks forced the Fed to cut rates to stave off what many feared would be a
global financial and economic panic.
Yesterday the Fed uprooted both of those landmarks. It cut its key federal
funds rate at a hastily convened emergency meeting by three quarters of a
point to 3.5 per cent.
Putting yesterday’s almost unprecedented move in this historical context gives
some idea of the concern at the US central bank about the outlook for the
economy. But the timing of this extraordinary rate cut also raises a serious
question for the Fed’s credibility: did the leadership of the world’s most
powerful central bank panic in response to a financial market crisis?
Only six weeks ago, at the last regular meeting of its Federal Open Market
Committee, the Fed seemed relatively unfazed by the proliferating evidence
of economic weakness caused by the continuing credit crunch. At that meeting
Ben Bernanke, the Chairman, and his colleagues explicitly rejected the pleas
of many in financial markets - and one of their own committee members – for
a more aggressive response. They cut rates by just a quarter-point. Since
then, of course, the economic picture has darkened considerably – with
further stagnation in the labour market, in consumer spending and in housing.
But all of this has been known for at least the past week or so. The Fed’s
next regularly scheduled meeting is only a week away, and recent comments by
Mr Bernanke had indicated that the Fed was going to cut rates then – by at
least half a percentage point. So why move yesterday?
The most troubling possible explanation for yesterday’s decision is that Mr
Bernanke may have been trying to use monetary policy to avert a financial
meltdown yesterday after the global equity collapse on Monday. US markets
were closed on Monday, increasing the likely selling pressure on Tuesday
and, while it is unlikely that the rate cut was a direct attempt to shore up
equity markets, a really steep fall in stock prices would only further
weaken confidence. Since the Fed was ready to act anyway next week, why not
bring the expected cut forward and head off a financial bloodbath?
If that was what the Fed was thinking, it may have staved off one crisis but
opened the door to a bigger one. As of yesterday afternoon, the dramatic
rate cut certainly seemed to have had some positive effect. Equities
retraced huge losses in the early morning.
But there is a real danger that Mr Bernanke is now held hostage to the panics
of jittery financial markets. Traders have already fully priced in another
50 basis point cut in rates next week. If the Fed doesn’t deliver – if
yesterday’s move merely brought forward a planned cut - the disaster averted
yesterday will presumably merely have been delayed by a week as well. And
with Mr Bernanke and his colleagues now into the traditional purdah period
that begins a week before their next Open Market Committee meeting, it will
be difficult for them to correct market expectations in advance.
A better explanation for the Fed’s highly unusual move yesterday is that Mr
Bernanke simply wanted to magnify the scale of the monetary easing needed to
bolster the ailing economy. By moving yesterday he gets two big bites out of
the fed funds rate - 75 basis points this week and 50 next – before the end
of January.
The problem is that, even if that was the reason for yesterday’s decision, Mr
Bernanke is going to have a hard time dispelling the notion that he did not
engineer the Fed’s biggest interest-rate cut in a generation primarily in
response to a swoon in equity markets.
Whatever his real intentions, the world’s most powerful central banker looks
like he has been forced into a hurried decision by panicked global equity
traders.
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Itis quite interesting to see the American comments here vs the worlds'. The denial of Americans about their own condition and their decline in the global system is alot of the problem. We are seeing the dying of the US Empire before us and still, its vassals have no idea. Can "cluelessness" be commodified?
PAS, NY, NY
Is 1929 just around the corner? Bernanke resembles a football Manager deep in relagation area and quickly running out of games.
brendan Buffini, maidstone, England
Atten: Mr. G. Baker Re: Your column of 1-22-08.
A well reasoned opinion opinion from a well informed
editor. I'm of the opinion that Mr. Bernanke was simply demonstrating that the Fed could and would
move in a hurry, if necessary, and that it is now behaving as a giant economic flywheel in a market that goes up and down like the pistons in an internal combustion engine.
With sincere intentions:
Cyrano
Kenneth B. Smith, P.E., Wilmington, U.S.A./DE
Oh so it's the Fed that is debasing the US$? And here was me thinking it had something to do with:
1. perpetual trillion dollar plus budget deficits,
2. a trading account deficit that is ??? Who knows now, any number above US$X trillion,
3. every US citizen racking up credit to the tune of 170% of what they earn and hoping like hell that Asian and Middle East savers keep on lending them US$80bn a year even if they do default,
4. parochial US politicians who donât like being beholden to âforeignersâ â in a global economy,
5. 70% plus of the US economy is directly connected to item 3 above,
6. a whole bunch of US banks that have not declared their liabilities so as to get under their fiduciary requirements or even their own Tier 1 ratios and
7. the fact that The Plan appears to be to buy in more green ink to print more dollars to get rid of the red ink.
I wonder whether we are not living through the bloody demise of the $US as a totemic currency as everyone not living cloud cuckoo land starts to worry about just what is the backing for the US$?
dhome, sydney, australia
Actually, it was a purly political move. You have to realize that in America it is the silly season. The Presidential elections are all about who can promise more. Now, both parties are trying to out-promise each other to win votes. This rate cut is an over reaction in an attempt to pander to voters. Rate should be left alone, and the economy should be given a chance to shake out the losers. (painful as that might be) Think of the flip side. What will happen when rates begin to rise again?
pappy, Huntsville, Alabama
The timing of any policy change is very critical. The issue of haste does not arise because the same critics would turn round to ask why he did not act fast[another word for haste]. My thinking is that rate changes affect the economy with a lag. That being the case and given that the Fed has more facts than those of us on the outside, i do not think it is right or even fair to accuse the Fed of hastiness. We all are intersted in the speedy recovery of the US economy.
Emmanuel Moore ABOLO, lagos, nigeria
The sky is falling!! The sky is falling!!
You wish.
The US Economy is resilient and flexible. The US ecomomy is not in a recession. The financial markets need to wring out their bad investments, which MAY force a slowdown in economic growth for a brief period.
If the US economy goes into recession or into the more likely slowdown, it will allow the economy to reduce unproductive investments and activity, trim the fat, improve customer service, reallocate resources to more productive activity, clear out inventory, hold prices in check, reorder credit risks, etc, etc. etc.
Then, as ALWAYS the US economy will roar back while supporting the rest of the world.
Relax, there are pros and cons to everything, and a cycle for every course of action.
In the meantime, we are all going to eat well, buy what we need and most of what we want, watch TV, travel, enjoy life and live well.
Enough with the gloom and doom.
Mike, Indiana, USA
A 0.5 % cut would have been justified.. but .75 in one go & befor the monthly meet of the fed !Really does smack of desperation !!!...The Bottom line is the U.S is in Recession now & the u.k is almost certain to follow in the spring.. But Economists wont say that for fear it becomes a self fulfilling prophesy !
Andy cooper, Redditch,
Most debtors these days are living on borrowed time.
The pigeons will come home to roost one day.
By reducing base rate will mean feeding the spend now and pay whenever brigade.
It has been proved in te past that you can not spend your way out of debt.
This was proved by Barber in the early Heath Government.
Do we ever learn ?
Bernard Parke, Guildford, England
1929 here we come :(
keegan, portland , oregon
The real issue isn't base rates but the disparity between Interbank rates and national liquidity reserves (currently 2.4% pro rata in the US, historical average around 6%). The tipping point of 2% is only about a week away.
Tim O'Sleen, Durban, SA
Ron Paul is an agent of the establishment who is being used as a talking point. He's unelectable and that's exactly why he's allowed to speak.
With regards to global markets, the entire world looks to the U.S. for leadership in times of crisis. America isn't even in recession yet but the hint of recession was enough to spark a global sell-off. If the FED did not act today, the damage done to markets around the world would have been much more extensive.
I would watch for coordinated rate cuts across Europe and Asia after the FED has made the prelimary move. Despite the recent talk of markets decoupling from the U.S., this week proved that the USA is still very much the trend setter as well as the most important market on the planet upon which all other markets are hinged.
Jack Mayhoffer, New York,
Fed rate 3.5% - inflation, rising, now at say 2.9%. Real interest rates, O.6%. There is no longer any room for the Fed to influence the market through interest rate cuts. Certain classes of assets continue to fall, banks widen margins to restore capital. We have stagflation and a decade of gloom.
alan morgan, merifons, France
And all the king's horses, and all the king's men ...
Charles Pluckhahn, Seattle, USA
Before the rate cut there were no buyers for equities, It was a perfect storm as a dozen factors from risk assumptions to earnings forecasts caused a massive markdown. The last plank of optimism had been removed with the collapse of the emerging market 'safe havens'. If they had not taken some significant measure of action, there may well have been the first 1000 point down day for the Dow. Of course, that could still happen; you never know with a house of cards
Phil, Bishop's Stortford,
Yes, I rather agree with what you say.
I do have an additional point: I suggest that the Fed's remarkable move yesterday was not done out of panic (as you say) but out of a desire to shock, in response to the rtising panic in the markets.
And shock it did.
I believe the size and timing of this rate cut was intended to impress upon the Markets that the Fed was indeed taking the problem seriously, and would go to extraordinary lengths to try to avert the threat of a recession. (I believe that, unfortunately, the Fed's strategy doesn't offer much chance of achieving that.)
Without that shock, I suspect the NY Stock Market was in imminent danger, Tuesday morning, of spiralling down with no obvious stopping points.
And it had to be a shock move because, after this, there are not many arrows left in Bernanke's quiver.
DogmaLite, Keninghall, Norfolk UK
Ron Paul is the only salvation for the U.S. He has the FED and Bernanke pegged for the antics that institution has been using to create asset bubbles and to debase the U.S. dollar.Take a look at YOU TUBE to see the evidence of Congressman Paul blasting Bernanke for his institution's follies and Ben sitting there with a smerk on his face, while failing to address the FED's antics and shortcomings. SAD, and don't think the current debacle is a storm in a tea cup. This disaster has got legs to it and we haven't even finished Act I!!!!!!
Pauli, London,