Patrick Hosking: Business commentary
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The Royal Bank of Scotland share price touched an eight-year low yesterday. Pretty much all the fabulous shareholder wealth created in happier times by buying, subsuming and turning round NatWest has evaporated.
The value destruction in the past year amounts to £33 billion. That’s equivalent to five entire Marks & Spencers or ten BAs.
Bluntly, what happens at RBS and the other big banks matters much more than the doings of many companies that grab more media and City attention. For pension fund incomes, for tax receipts and for the general economy, RBS is important.
That Sir Fred Goodwin, RBS chief executive, succeeds in reversing the share price damage of the past year matters rather more than the doings of Sir Stuart Rose or Willie Walsh.
General credit crunch concerns, doubts about the wisdom of the huge and complex ABN Amro acquisition and fears that RBS could be forced into an emergency capital-raising to shore up its balance sheet have all soured investor sentiment.
It is less than a year since Sir Fred declared himself out of the City sin- bin as he won plaudits for raising the dividend and for (apparently) recanting his acquisitive past. How wrong that view turned out to be when he charged into the ABN auction a few weeks later.
He is hamstrung. He wants to be able to press ahead with the carving up of ABN and rejuvenation of the parts allotted to RBS, but can’t go public on his plans until the Dutch central bank gives him its blessing. The hope in Edinburgh is that this will be in time for the annual results on February 28.
RBS is caught up in a wider curdling of confidence about the entire UK banking sector. Older and wiser analysts are starting to recall how banks were regarded by investors 25 years ago — accident-prone, blundering and seemingly incapable of lending money to people who would pay it back. Then it was botched loans in Latin America and to property developers. This time it’s mortgage- backed securities and leveraged buyouts.
The UK banks have won a reputation for better risk control and analysis since then. With that better reputation have come much higher stock market ratings. Their shares have, over most of the past two decades, traded at about ten times profits and twice book value.
But as Goldman Sachs points out in a chilling note this week, that was not always the case. Before and during the last deep recession in the late 1980s and early 1990s, bank values were languishing at five times profits and little more than book value. They could return towards that level if their reputations continue to be dented: the originate- and-distribute model — the common practice of selling on loans to third parties — is on the wane. Financial leverage is being unwound. And the UK slowdown is certain to push up bad debts. UK banks are not as cheap as those with short memories might imagine — they could go cheaper. Goldman can’t find a single UK bank to recommend as a “buy”, even though they all yield 7 per cent or more.
UBS calculated yesterday that RBS might have to raise up to £8 billion of fresh equity to beef up its balance sheet. That would dilute shareholders, many of whom already feel let down by the volte-face last year. The message from one major institution yesterday was ominous: Sir Fred might have to pay for a rights issue with his job.
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Surely if a bank remains profitable, it can just strengthen its balance sheet? Ok, I admit, I dont know much about the history of banks in recessions but it would take a huge amount of bad debts to reverse RBS profits completely.
Also, they exceed the regulatory requirements for capital. I assume satisfying them means you are deemed ok.
Exposure to depreciating bond assets seems fairly contained if declarations so far are any indication.
Added to this, the rationalisation of ABN Amro has yet to start.
Profit fall maybe but I just cannot see a need for a rights issue.
I may be wrong but seeing the shambolic decisions made by those in financial markets supposedly so talented they are paid multiples of the rest of us, i prefer to trust myself.
Brian Golden, Dublin, Ireland
I am disgusted that these 'throw away remarks' by analysts can be quoted without rationale and substansiation. Especially comments by Citi and UBS which are the two real dogs of this mess in the banking system, and for some reason only known to them have been most critical of RBS in their comments.
The media are always happy to print bad news so I don't expect any better of them, but any unsubstaniated comment, positive or negative, which 'stampedes the herd' and positively or adversely affects any share price should be of interest to the FSA.
I am not saying that comment should be banned, but it should always be required to be backed up by its rationale before being taken seriously.
I wonder where this figure of £8bn has emerged from, and how it can be estimated with such confidence? Before the 6th December statement by RBS other such wild statements were being made about the size of the RBS provisions for Sub Prime.
John Trethowan, Lisbane,
Quote from article.
Goldman canât find a single UK bank to recommend as a âbuyâ, even though they all yield 7 per cent or more.
If Goldman's can't rate any of the UK Banks as a buy, what way are they going to manage the workout of NRK?
Who would buy anything from a salesman who was telling prospective buyers, private punters or the State, that the product is useless.
Once again Goldman's are (sucessfully)? riding two horses going in different directions and taking a profit from everyone.
John Trethowan, Lisbane,
Funnily, I've heard this all before?
Do others not see a stark similarity to the doubters who questioned the logic and sense of a wee provincial bank taking on the acquisition of a UK dinosaur.
The same management team are in place, but now they have more experience and knowledge. Yes it's hard! But that's how the wee provincial bank has grown from a £20m profit (and a loss making Retail division) to a £9.4bn Op Profit in 2006.
As always the Scottish like to be the underdogs and this kind of article is a great motivation for employees.
Bryony Paul, Edinburgh, Scotland
I wish you'd written this a few months ago. Then I could have sold my RBS shares before they tanked.
Anne Murphy, London,
Goldman can't find a single UK bank to recommend as a buy!
Could it be because they hold massive shorts in them? UK journos should read todays Marketwatch "If investors weren't skeptical of analysts' research already, this week's misses certainly should give pause. Until they start getting it right, market participants should issue a strong sell on Wall Street advice. "
Lindsay Duncan, Innerleithen, UK
I have had accounts with RBS since 1980. In the last few years I have seen concern for customers and basic courtesy on the part of RBS staff decline. Is this a general degregation of standards world wide , or does it have to do with the direction RBS has taken? People will bank for the most part where they are treated well. In this way, both the bank and the customer will prosper. If the customer is not happy, he will go elsewhere. Those with esoteric degrees in accounting do not normally look upon this as a part of their concerns.
Glenorchy, Perthshire,
So Goldman Sachs and UBS both performed very well then according to their own updates? Can't find a single bank to recommend a "buy" on? Or is it sour grapes due to the fact RBS has minute exposure to subprime in comparison to those great American banks? This is a joke and I'm laughing. No doubt in a few months time when the shares recover they'll then be issuing a "buy" recommendation, but we all know that'll be after the share price has gone up substantially. LOL.
D Chang, bristol,