Having defected to Rome in things spiritual, Tony Blair is now turning to New York in matters temporal. The former Prime Minister is going to work part-time for JPMorgan Chase, the American bank, and the instant reaction from British business leaders has not been to feel snubbed but to wonder what on earth Mr Blair can bring to a big business.

His claim yesterday that he has “always been interested in commerce” is risible. No senior British politician in decades has appeared so uninterested in the business world. That was Gordon’s province, after all.

Mr Blair’s entire experience in the commercial world boils down to little more than a few weeks managing a rock band in his student days and a botched foray into buy-to-let investment in Bristol led by his wife.

Most British business leaders are sceptical about what former ministers can bring to a boardroom anyway. Too many companies with adornments from Westminster have ended in trouble – from Enron (Lord Wakeham) to Blue Arrow (Lord Tebbit). The days when a former minister added kudos and credibility to a board have gone.

But on reflection, Mr Blair’s appointment may turn out to be a coup for the Americans and a missed opportunity for any British blue chip that might have won his services if it had been more persuasive. The business world is changing and it is changing in a way that exactly suits Mr Blair’s talents.

The balance of economic power is shifting away from Western democracies to Asian and Middle Eastern dictatorships and oligarchies – regimes where being able to open doors may be far more important than traditional business and financial skills. The winning companies will be those that can, say, secure introductions at the highest level of the Chinese politburo and those that can win instant credibility with the people who control the strings at sovereign wealth funds of the Gulf states.

Over the next few years, Western private sector capital is going to be scarce. Western domestic markets are going to be depressed. The laurels are going to those with the contacts and diplomacy to tap state funds and enter foreign markets where the gatekeepers are not shareholders but politicians and regulators. Face and vanity can matter as much as dollars.

Who better to help open such doors than Mr Blair, whose reputation among overseas leaders remains high and whose diplomatic skills no one doubts? He will prove to be cheap if his presence so much as oils the wheels towards a single deal. JPMorgan makes in profit Mr Blair’s rumoured $1 million fee once every 18 minutes.

The exclusivity arrangements mean no British bank can now hire Mr Blair. In other industries, a BP or a Vodafone or a Rolls-Royce may yet secure his services but they need to be quick and hire him while still Cabinet-fresh. Even for ex-PMs, the lustre fades and the law of diminishing returns sets in.

patrick.hosking@thetimes.co.uk

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