Patrick Hosking: Business commentary
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It’s going to be a particularly tough decision for the interest rate setters at the Bank of England this week. With energy bills, rail fares and food prices all rising fast, the ghost of inflation is hovering in the shadows of the octagonal room in Threadneedle Street where the Monetary Policy Committee gathers.
After last month’s rate cut, the case for a pause looks reasonable and the chances are that the MPC will do just that. But these may not be normal times. Here are nine reasons - one for each MPC member - why the Bank should be bolder than usual and cut tomorrow.
1 January is a key month for strategic and capital investment decisions. It is now at the start of the year that business leaders decide whether to press ahead or shelve expansion plans and indeed whether to press the button on cost-cutting measures. If ever there was a moment to send a signal that the Bank is alert to the slowdown and eager to loosen monetary policy as quickly as possible, this is it.
2 The world really has changed – the financial world, that is. It may not be apparent yet but there has been a profound change in bankers’ attitude to risk and their willingness to extend credit. The sea of debt that has buoyed business and asset prices for the past 15 years is receding fast. Banks are rationing credit and are in no mood to turn on the taps again.
3 Most times the economic cycle turns glacially. Policymakers can afford to take their time in adjusting the levers. This, however, is not one of those times. Right now sentiment, both among business people and consumers, is curdling at breakneck pace. This is a time, therefore, for the MPC to move with speed.
4 Economists vary on this but the “neutral” position for base rate is probably 4.5 to 5 per cent. This is the level at which rates are seen as neither braking the economy nor pushing down on the throttle. With rates currently at 5.5 per cent, the Bank is still very much applying brake and that looks perverse when the road ahead is steeply uphill.
5 The baleful impact of house prices. It is hard to overstate the effect they have on consumers. Notwithstanding Halifax’s figures yesterday, the trend looks set for flat prices this year at best. Home-owners, used to the warm feeling from the automatic 10 or 20 per cent appreciation of their homes each year, are going to feel chillier and poorer.
6 Special pleading from the City should be treated with great suspicion. But the financial services industry – one of the biggest private sector drivers of economic growth as well as a major contributor to public coffers and the balance of payments – is facing particular pain because of the credit crunch. A serious downturn in the City would hurt the whole country.
7 A recession in the United States, now a serious possibility, could weaken the dollar against sterling, helping to keep the lid on dollar-denominated import prices and making inflation less of a threat than it might appear.
8 A sharp slowdown in government spending growth is under way. Strains on the nation’s finances have forced Gordon Brown to curb his past largesse. The state spending squeeze will remove another of the key motors behind recent buoyant growth.
9 There is very little danger that a cut would unleash a fresh uptick in the housing market. This is not 2005. Whatever happens to base rate, mortgage bills will remain much higher than then. The banks haven’t fully passed on last month’s cut – another reason to pare again.
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"Home-owners, used to the warm feeling from the automatic 10 or 20 per cent appreciation of their homes each year, are going to feel chillier and poorer."
Are these the same financially illiterate homeowners who have remortgaged that 10 - 20 per cent inflation to buy cheap chinese rubbish and over indulgent holidays they can't afford and payed for with money they haven't earned? If you are putting this forward as a reason to cut rates then you have seriously damaged your credibility as a business commentator. Spending future earnings today on consumerism can only ever lead to decreased future spending.This is exactly the reason why we need to raise rates and purge all the bad debt from the system. Even with official rates at zero buyers of mortgage backed securities will want a high premium for the risk they will have to take to lend Wayne and Waynetta money for their plasma tv secured on a grotty terraced house on a boarded up street in Crapsville.
Edward, London,
Short Term Cut?
I agree with the idea that 1% cut would bring us to neutral territory. But for how long?
Unfortunately Brown has brought us to this pass because of his economic philosophy. He has borrowed and encouraged us to borrow against tomorrow...hoping it would never come.
Well tomorrow always comes, and debts have to be repaid. Sadly, at the very moment when the debt should be repaid and the housing bubble/credit crisis dealt with we find that there is an outside - some would say unforeseen - problem on the horizon.
That's right: Inflation. Of foreign origin. Uncontrollable perhaps by national governments of today. And this is why lowering interest rates might work if applied judiciously and soon. Because we may have to raise them again anyway to deal with galloping inflation that will require interest rate rises.
Gordon Brown's economic policy will now be tested and his ten years as chancellor will be justified, or not, in the coming year. It doesn't look good.
joe, Berwickshire, scotland
I think the Bank of England should increase rates by one quarter of a percent. This will to some degree arrest the fall in the pound, which is likely to gather pace in the coming months.
Christopher Sly, Brighton, E Sussex
The BOE pushed rates 0.75 basic points higher than they needed to be rather than waiting for their previous rate increase's to fully play through on the economy. It takes a least 18 months for the true picture of interest rate rises or reductions to fully play through on the economy, so any reductions now will not effect the economy as the doom and gloom merchants have all but destroyed peoples confidence and the mind set is now firmly on fear of the future. Spending will fall and job's will be at risk so unless the BOE act's and act's quickly the recession being predicted by the gloom merchant's will become self forfilling .
Dave, Mold, Flintshire
The BOE previously set rates to keep RPIX at around 2.5%, they almost always kept inflation below that figure. RPIX is currently 3.2% & rising. Without the change to target CPI there would be no question of a further interest rate cut at this time & Brown would have to change his script.
Robert Williams, Halifax, England
The abject failure of the Fed, under its previous chairman, The Maestro, and its current one too, should give everyone reasons aplenty to stop fiddling with the interest rate. It does no good to the economy in general, even though it might help some players that painted themselves in a corner, so to say.
Those that "saved money for a rainy day" must pay to save the speculators' skins after having gambled unsuccessfully with other people's money.
Frankly, there is something intrinsically wrong with the financial structure of the Western world and the undeserved confidence we place in the 'obfuscating discipline' called economics.
Jaysonrex, Sao Paulo, Brazil
A tinkering cut in BoE rate with inflation looming will be the wrong signal to global markets. We will see further depreciation of the pound as liquid assets flee the UK. There will then be further imported inflation and a sterling crisis followed by political unrest. If this Government turns the BoE into a crony type Quango to help reduce the value of excessive public and private debt many of us will flee with our liquid assets to safer havens.
Steve Marchant, Torquay, UK
.The b.o.e mandate of controlling inflation will clearly be seen to be false if it cuts Rates further.As in america ,their hidden agenda is NO RECESSION.
Graham, Portugal,
Patrick Hoskins site house price flattening out as a reason to cut rates because without a 20 percent appreciation consumers will feel poorer. Not kidding ! What about the fact thats its probably pretty unsound for people to have an expecation like this in the first place and that we've had 10 years of uninterupted boom which has fundamentally affected the way the economy functions. One of the effects is that the supply of money has shot up without consequent rise in productive output of the economy - this is typically what feeds the devaluation of money - ie inflation.By seeking to reduce the cost of money once again at the first sign of long overdue consolidation in the economy and perhaps a longer term cleansing of the credit excesses built up you are only making the problem worse longer term. No BOE dont cut yet- stick to your mandate which is clear and unequivocal - inflation below 2percent. Thats the only reason to cut. We will all be better of longer term if you stick with this
franc petersen, london, u
A BoE cut will really have very little beneficial effect - banks will continue to hoard cash until the true value of losses due to their errors of judgement in sub prime bets are declared, and we are a long way from this point.
Furthermore as bad debts multiply through borrower defaults, lenders are likely to increase rather than decrease rates as they look to recover losses from those can afford to repay.
A small and temporary rise in the value of the FTSE will quickly evaporate as investors realise what a mess the UK economy is now in and the BoE have thrown in the towel on the battle against inflation.
The continuining fall in the value of steling will make imports ever more expensive, further increasing the CPI for a country which is overly reliant on imports.
Now is not the time to panic - further interest rate cuts cannot reasonably be viewed as anything other than this.
rick, sydney, australia