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Tis the season for those fortunate companies with pricing power to up their tariffs and charges. And for those without it to gulp bravely and start scouting around for cost savings instead, in what promises to be a tough 2008.
Companies with monopoly positions or sticky customers are finding it relatively easy to push up prices. The M6 motorway toll was lifted by 12.5 per cent to £4.50 on January 1. Rail fares on unregulated journeys went up by as much as 10 per cent. Energy bills are rising by 15-20 per cent, as npower’s six million gas and electricity customers will discover today. Private school bursars continue to lift fees with relative ease.
Companies operating in more competitive arenas such as electrical gadgets or clothing have none of that luxury, as DSG, the former Dixons, and Next showed in gloomy reports yesterday. Competition from supermarkets and online rivals is driving down laptop and plasma TV prices. Next has managed to maintain prices but at the expense of underlying sales volumes.
Estate agents too are about to discover their fees falling for the first time in 15 years. Thanks to fixed commissions of 1.5 per cent or so on the purchase price, their revenues have risen effortlessly on the rising tide of house prices. But residential property prices are likely to plateau at best this year, while the volume of transactions – the most important determinant of revenues – is sliding. Mortgages are being rationed for the first time in years, the Bank of England said yesterday, which is likely to exacerbate the reversal.
An unloved industry renowned for describing the pokiest cupboard as “deceptively spacious” may find itself ruefully applying that description to its own shrinking marketplace. Agents that expanded most aggressively in the good times are likely to suffer most. Small independents, well entrenched in their local communities, will better withstand the chill.
So far confidence remains quite high, according to the National Association of Estate Agents. But other larger chains with the flexibility are likely to follow Your Move’s cull, even if things get no worse.
If the experience of the early 1990s is repeated, the cutbacks could be speedy and brutal. Then whole chains were closed or drastically pared back overnight. For an industry now employing 50,000 people or more, that would spell jobs pain, and many more boarded up shop fronts on the high street.
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This is all true but companies that really suffer in a downturn are those that can neither raise prices nor cut costs. There are many ways that estate agencies could cuts costs to maintain their incomes. For example, they can use property search engines that list their properties for free instead of paying fixed portal advertising fees; they can cut back on printed property supplements since most people search for property on-line and, by working more efficiently, on-line, they could cut back their high street offices. I am not an estate agent, but I don't think that most of us are yet ready to do without them, yet.
Rod Dowler, London, UK
Many people have said Mr Brown was the best chancellor the UK has ever had.He created a service economy which has turned into an unable to service debt economy?I think Ken Clark did a much better job,he left an economy in decent shape when he left in 1997.For the first 3 years ,Mr Brown stuck to his spending plans.What went wrong?
stephen Hulton, eure, France
Not a good time to sell a BMW or Porsche either then! Look, agents made hay while the sun shined and now the dark clouds have arrived. Alot of people will be quite pleased...sorry no sympathy here!
george, aylesbury,