Patrick Hosking: Business commentary
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When Warren Buffett so much as scratches his nose, the investment world sits up and takes notice. So the Buffettologists will be all over the latest acquisition by the world’s smartest investor.
While his rivals were still digesting their sprouts, Mr Buffett announced on the evening of Christmas Day that Berkshire Hathaway was paying $4.5 billion (£2.25 billion) for majority control of Marmon Holdings, an industrial conglomerate owned by the Pritzker family of Chicago.
Outside his insurance company investments, this is Mr Buffett’s biggest deal yet. Given Berkshire’s investment preferences, there were few surprises in the deal. Marmon’s products are easy to understand and low-tech. It makes stuff such as railway tankers, plumbing materials and household wiring. The company is nicely unfashionable - a sprawling conglomerate of 125 subsidiaries. And it looks cheap. Details are scant but Mr Buffett appears to be paying less than ten times after-tax profits and less than one times sales.
All very Buffett. However, the timing of the deal and the geographic market of Marmon - overwhelmingly the US – make it more interesting. Berkshire is no stranger to overseas investments yet chose to snap up an asset in its own backyard just as America is threatened with a severe downturn, possibly a recession.
Of course, Berkshire is a famously long-term investor and isn’t particularly bothered about getting its timing exactly right. Nevertheless, this is a vote of long-term confidence in the US economy generally and in the poleaxed housebuilding sector in particular.
The other intriguing aspect is what Mr Buffett has chosen not to invest in. It’s a certainty that the investment banks seeking out rescue capital over the past few weeks would have had Omaha, Mr Buffett’s home town, high on their list of places to visit. Mr Buffett has the cash ($50 billion and rising), the reputation and the appetite to do just these kinds of big, difficult deals – ballsy investments conventional funds would shun. “I can spend money faster than Imelda Marcos when things are right,” he once said.
Rumours he was poised to invest in the troubled investment bank Bear Stearns, then in the mortgage lender Countrywide Financial, turned out to be false. Since then Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, UBS and Merrill Lynch have all gone out in search of rescue capital and have all struck deals with Middle Eastern or Asian sovereign wealth funds.
In every case, Mr Buffett has been nowhere to be seen.
The idea that Mr Buffett wants nothing to do with banks doesn’t square with the facts. He was certainly bruised by his investment in Salomon Brothers in the 1990s. He joked at the time: “I felt like the drama critic who wrote ‘I would have enjoyed the play except that I had an unfortunate seat. It faced the stage’.” But in the end he exited Salomon with a respectable profit when it was offloaded to Travelers, later merged with Citigroup. Bank investments like American Express and Wells Fargo have also paid off handsomely.
In the latest deals, the banks were dangling seemingly enticing terms. Citigroup offered a juicy 13 per cent coupon on the convertible shares sold to Abu Dhabi while Merrill gave the Singaporeans a 12 per cent discount and a money-back guarantee. Yet Mr Buffett appears not to have been swayed.
Goldman Sachs reckons Wall Street’s finest are due to confess to yet another wave of sub-prime writedowns. Mr Buffett’s apparent indifference thus far to any of the approaches and blandishments from said banks suggests he might agree.
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jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA - most middle eastern countries and China have their currency pegged to the dollar, so the exchange rate is fixed.
George, UAE,
Jan Anglin,
Warren counts on people-who-handle-other-people's-money to incrementally do dumber and dumber things over long periods of time. When the "chickens finally come home to roost" and fiscal goofiness becomes headline news, his long suffering patience has been rewarded.
This is the happy part of the insurance cycle that has made Warren Buffett healthy, wealthy and wise... Do you hear his little tippy toes tap dancing to work? I do.
Anglin, St. Louis, United States/Missouri
The only real purpose of complex financial instruments was to artificially inflate the balance sheets of the companies involved, thus increasing the bonuses of the financial elite. They were deliberately made so complex, so as to be impossible to value correctly. The companies involved can then use their own âmark-to-modelâ tables to value these assets, i.e. they are worth whatever you want them to be worth. The complexity was just a cover for a global financial scam. Great for balance sheets, great for bonuses.
This is based on the ideas put forward by Warren Buffett in 2002, when he described these financial weapons of mass destruction. If people had listened to him then, there would never have been a Credit Crunch.
Keith, Ashford,
One thing not noted in the article is that Buffett is investing in Dollars, whereas the Middle Eastern and Asian SWFs are not. That means that if the Dollar recovers and the financial sector with it, it would mean a bigger profit for SWF investors than for him.
If you are a SWF and you believe that the Dollar is over-sold, then by investing in the US, you are exchanging a temporarily over-valued currency for a temporarily under-valued one, which is a pretty good deal. And do you invest in Citigroup rather than Joe's Garage? That is because if you run a SWF you know more about Citigroup than about Joe's Garage.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA
And 'should' comes up trumps again, Mr Schaefer?
pete laubscher, League city, Texas
Jack Welsh "saved" GE by turning it into a financial services org - which always rubbed me the wrong way. It's legal but the golden rule is "as to one so as to all," - that however is not business. Business is "everybody does most what they do best."
In politics for instance the reversion to force is an option allowed anyone, but it doesn't make it right.
To simplify, a successful product, or good, should have a unique selling advantage and not just be temporarily advantaged by the mistakes of others
glenn schaefer, holbrook, USA