James Harding, Business Editor
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Gossipmongers will enjoy a rich seam over the next year as the entire mining sector comes into play. Kite-flying is an inevitable consequence of a bid as huge, and industry changing, as BHP Billiton’s £62 billion offer for Rio Tinto.
In the end, the BHP-Rio deal may not be the one to happen, but consolidation is now firmly on the agenda for the resources sector and every permutation of every marriage is likely to be mooted in coming months.
How will Mick Davis, the deal-hungry boss of Xstrata, react to BHP’s proposal to create a mining behemoth worth more than £150 billion? How will Cynthia Carroll, the new head of Anglo American, stamp her authority on a company that has streamlined its operations to a point where it is now either an obvious target or lean and mean buyer?
Then there are the unknown intentions of the Brazilians, Russians and Chinese. CVRD, the Brazilian miner, could lose the most from a BHP-Rio tie-up, so will it preempt the deal with its own? RusAl is the Kremlin’s favoured candidate to become a national champion and the company has big plans to take on BHP and the others.
Then there is China, the biggest consumer of the raw materials produced by BHP, Rio et al. Is it now time for the Chinese to take control of the resources that are so necessary to the country’s exceptional growth?
There is money to be made from uncertainty and the resources sector appears set to take over as rumour central.
Marius Kloppers, BHP’s chief executive, is the man responsible for kicking off this gossip jamboree, but it will be the choices made by Tom Albanese, the head of Rio, that will eventually determine the rumours that become fact.
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