James Harding, Business Editor
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The two defining forces of world business in 2007 – the credit crunch in the United States and the assertion of petrodollar power from the Gulf – coincided in the early hours of the morning yesterday at the headquarters of Citigroup in New York: America’s largest bank announced that it had secured $7.5 billion (£3.6 billion) in fresh funding from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA).
The fact that America’s largest bank has found itself forced to go cap-in-hand to the most powerful investment fund in the United Arab Emirates is itself a statement about the shift in the balance of economic power this year. Just as the spigot of cash has been turned off on Wall Street as a result of the sub-prime mortgage crisis, the Arab world has found itself awash with money thanks to oil at nearly $100 a barrel. The biggest bank in the world’s most dynamic economy has, therefore, had to scramble to borrow money at a punitive rate from a secretive state-owned investment fund in the United Arab Emirates.
The willingness of the ADIA to arrange a $7.5 billion funding within less than a week is a measure not only of the financial strength of the Gulf funds but also their newfound readiness to project their economic power around the world.
But the eagerness of Citigroup to secure a capital infusion from Abu Dhabi says even more about the weakness of the American bank. The details of the deal suggest that Citigroup is in trouble. The Gulf is buying convertible bonds, providing a loan that in the next four years turns into just less than a 5 per cent shareholding. The key fact is that Citigroup has agreed to borrow from ADIA at an interest rate of 11 per cent. This is an extraordinarily high rate for a bank such as Citigroup to have to pay. A company borrowing from the junk-bond market would typically pay 9 per cent. A company issuing convertibles would expect to pay a lower interest rate than on a straight bond. Looked at simply, it appears that Citigroup was so desperate for funds that it did not mind the price. Indeed, the cost of the money it is borrowing is higher than the return it could get from lending it.
Citigroup, under the interim stewardship of Sir Win Bischoff, has clearly concluded that it is prepared to pay a premium to shore up battered confidence in the bank.
Earlier this month, Chuck Prince, the chief executive, resigned as it emerged that Citigroup could be exposed to $11 billion more in losses and would probably have to lose more than the 17,000 jobs already going. The stock slipped below $30 this week, its lowest level in five years. And investors have been increasingly concerned about the underlying strength of the bank: Citigroup’s “Tier 1” capital levels, which are widely used to measure the capital adequacy ratio of banks, have fallen below 7.5 per cent.
The problems in the US housing market are expected to inflict pain on the big Wall Street banks for at least another two quarters. Citigroup, like Merrill Lynch, is particularly exposed to hedge fund activity in the collateralised debt market and on its accompanying ABX index. The bank is leaderless: Robert Rubin, the acting chairman, is looking for a successor to Mr Prince as chief executive. And the fundamental question of Citigroup’s universal banking model – its aim to serve both individual and institutional customers in every conceivable kind of financial product – is increasingly up for debate.
But one argument was resolved yesterday: it has been a better year for the falcon than the bald eagle.
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This 'blood money' should at least temporarily protect a few thousand more jobs here in New York, but overall impact of the looming American recession will not be blunted.
Eric, NYC,
I am guessing here but presumably the convertible loan notes are treated as tier 2 capital. As such this is tantamount to a re-capitalisation of the Bank and, on that basis, the 11 per cent interest rate is very reasonable from Citigroup's perspective.
Stuart Bander, London, UK
As a former Citi MD I agree with the insights of the article. It is clear that the price paid for the capital was significantly above what should have been market, even in these trying times. It smells of fear and the fact that the risks in C are still significantly mis-priced (S+P take note). The economic result is likely to be that Citi will shortly write off all of that $7.5BN and more, leaving it with a long term added annual cost of of around $800MM. This plus the costs of rationalizing a large number of staff and the overhang costs of the borrowings that funded the assets now (and to be) written off (which don't go away when the write-offs are taken) paint a bleak picture. All this in addition to the public statement that they will not cut their dividend. I am afraid the CIBC analyst may be right - the numbers don't appear to add up. All in - I believe AIDA has purchased an 11% coupon on a note they believe will be ultimately guaranteed by the US Government. Smart investment.
MrInvestor, Jackson Hole,
Presumably the convertible loan notes qualify as tier 2 capital, in which case this deal represents a very cheap way of raising Citi's capital aequacy ratio and addressing the core problem - lack of capital.
Stuart Bander, London, UK
@Dave in Hong Kong: With respect, I think it's you who has misunderstood the term of the deal. The mandatory stock conversion takes place in a quantity that is determined by Citi's share price at the date of conversion. The only way that ADIA will make a gain or loss on conversion is if, at the date of conversion Citi stock is trading either above $37.24 (gain) below $31.83 (loss). Current Citi price is of course around $30, there's no 20% premium as you assert. . ADIA are also protected against dilution for the next 12 months to a significant degree. So ADIA only makes a loss at conversion if Citi share price does worse than 1.5% pa for the next 4 years. Until then, ADIA gets paid 11%. Skimming the terms this deal looks very rich - from ADIA's pov ... And bearing in mind that 6 months ago Citi was trading at $55, not much sign of any expectation from Citi of a bounce back for Citi share price is there? (Above not financial advice etc, etc)
EB, Slough,
100 USD oil is the price we all have to pay for the Oil states to bail out the banking system in the United States.
Its bad loans to make the economy keep on going. Its far from Friedmans Capitalism and Freedom, minimizing the role of government in a free market as a means of creating political and social freedom.
mohsen, malaga, spain
The difference between making the loan and buying shares is twofold:
1) higher immediate yield with (effectively) a warrant attached
2) better security
Should the dividend be cut and should further finance be required (think 1993) ADIA aren't in too bad a position.
Of course they may now rearrange other sections of their portfolio.
DM, Eastbourne,
And the 11% interest is, I presume, tax deductable?
Tony, London, Middlesex
David,
I couldn't agree more : something is rotten in the... state of finance.
Just hope that Dr. Maynard Krebs - the first contributor - is a bit too pessimistic. The markets have already more than enough to cope with.
PS If you have to panic, there is a lot to be said for doing it the first. Maybe Citigroup's management acted with that thruth in mind.
Eddy Verhaeghe, Oostende, Belgium
Does anyone recall the downfall of the Roman Empire? Ilove the United States of America and their entrepreneurial spirit but they, and much of the western world, have been living far beyond their means for far too long.The day of reckoning is just around the corner.
James Reid, Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada
James Harding has fundamentally misunderstood the terms of this deal. Citi is selling shares at up to a 20% premium above the current share price. The dividend for Citi shareholders is now 7.25%. An 11% interest rate for this convertible loan sounds high but that does not compensate Abu Dhabi for buying shares in 3 years 20% higher than they could buy them for now. In fact, they are up to 8.75% out of pocket.
Citi are no fools and a newspaper like the Times would be well advised to understand the fine print before making fundamentally wrong comments about the bank being in trouble. A frankly embarassingly poor piece of journalism.
Dave, Hong Kong,
Two years ago my dear Citicard offered me a balance transfer with 1.9% APR for the life of the loan. Of course, I snatched the deal and paid off a car loan.
I am still puzzled - how could a bank be profitable with rates like that?
Although, I am sure that the anonymous author of the crazy promotion at Citicard got his bonus , promotion and all the perks.
Hans, Centerville, AL, US
An alien creature on landing here and encountering what has happened would no doubt get back into his rocket and leave earth as quickly as possible, having come to the conclusion that there is no merit in colonising a planet populated by such irrational people. How can all these suposedly clever American bankers have allowed this to happen? (the whole sub prime problem and the knock on effects) More to the point how can the regulators/politicians/central bankers have allowed this to happen? If they were allowed to control nuclear weapons it would be truly terminal for the world.
Diddly Do, Liverpool,
As an American I don't like to have an Arab country as the largest stockholder of Citigroup. Buy what can you expect from a business in which money, and only money is the driver of everything.yet, America will remain as the most powerful country in the globe.
George Wilson, New york, USA
How can a bank "shore up confidence" by paying such an outlandish premium?
David Theron Bushnell, Carral,
The decline of the West can be seen, for one, in the practice of giving ginormous severance pay cheques to criminals who ran the instituions into the ground -- just one more example of ignoring merit and rewarding crime.
eugene, heidelberg, germany
ADIA is conservative soundly managed long term institutional investor, no different from many other firms of similar ilk, perhaps some what bigger than the average pension fund. The investment should me more accurately described as convertible loan notes rather than convertible bonds. The investment is part of long held strategy (established in the early 70's) of investing surplus proceeds from oil income to portfolio assets to provide for a return for future generations.
John Reid, New York, USA
looking out over the future we seem to have a choice of rule by multinationals or by nationalists and I now prefer the former - who prefer customers to corpses.
When military people tell us that global warming is a greater threat then terrorism they do not go into details viz scenarios, because they are trying to spare our feelings, eg avoid panic but sometimes one must resist putting a good face on everything, a lesson Sen Chuck Schumer seems to have forgotten
the genie is out of the box
have a nice day
glenn schaefer, holbrook, USA
"But one argument was resolved yesterday: it has been a better year for the falcon than the bald eagle."
pfffffffffffffffffffffffffffftttttt... WOW!
No one here ( New York ) cares at all what happens to Citi or any other "American" bank. There are no American Banks, just as there are no "English Banks". Capital is easily the most global of things. Let Petrodollars seek whatever return on investment they may. So what? Let CDOs die or not based on their ability to deliver returns or not. So what?
The fact that Citi has to borrow at a high rate of interest says as much about the fear at other big banks as it does about Citi.
Citi gets some extra dollars for the pain ahead, and Abu Dhabi gets a small piece of a large bank that should reward it handsomely in the years ahead.
James knows the big noise is still 4 months away, and honestly he can't wait to write about it. Let the resetting begin.
Dr. Maynard Krebs, New York/NY, USA