Gerard Baker: American view
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Last weekend marked the launch of the great American Christmas film season at the box office. Two of the movies in which much hope has been invested might be seen as competing parables for our troubled economic times.
Enchanted is Disney’s latest twist on the traditional saccharine-fuelled fairy story. An animated princess, complete with the usual retinue of royal suitor and cute, furry animals, is banished from cartoonland by an evil stepmother and winds up an innocent at large in live-action feature format on the cynical streets of New York. There, in a cleverly modern take on the classic story, she finds true love in the form of an embittered divorce lawyer and they live happily ever after.
The Mist, an MGM adaptation of a Stephen King novel, is from a wholly different narrative stable. A bunch of people in a quiet Maine town find themselves holed up in a supermarket when a mysterious fog descends and envelops them in a nasty swarm of terrifying creatures. This being a Stephen King thriller, needless to say, lots of very bad things happen to innocent people.
As a contest, it was no contest. The Disney princess, played by sweetness-personified Amy Adams, romped home, of course. In fact, raking in more than $50 million (£24 million) over the five-day weekend, Enchanted became the second-highest-grossing Thanksgiving launch so far, the best since Toy Story 2 in 1999. The Mist came in at a foggy $13 million.
Now I realise you can read too much into the cinema-going habits of Americans at Thanksgiving. I realise, too, that these are of somewhat different genres. My five young daughters are more your typical movie-goers over the holiday period and they were not alone in being enchanted by Disney.
But with a bit of imagination, you can construct a nice metaphor from this one-sided movie contest. Given a choice between a bit of sentimental old fluff about the possibility of true love even in cynical old Manhattan and the sum of their worst nightmares in a supermarket in Maine, Americans voted with their wallets for the triumph of hope over fear.
And, as it happens, Enchanted is more or less how you might describe the American economy right now. While commentators see only the approaching Mist of a housing meltdown, financial crisis and collapsing dollar, real Americans are still living through something of a fairytale.
Despite all the bad things that are supposed to be happening, the economy continues to grow. In fact, in this world, even the supposedly bad things are good.
Take, for the moment, that falling dollar. As is now well known, the US currency is down almost 40 per cent in the past 5½ years. If you had asked the average gloomy economist back then what would be the implications of such a steep fall in the dollar, the answer would have included a good deal of pessimistic conventional wisdom.
Such a sharp drop in the value of the currency would, it was generally assumed, spell real trouble for the value of US assets. Demand for US Treasury bonds would surely fall sharply. In fact, the decline in the dollar’s value would be both cause and effect of a flight from dollar-denominated assets.
Interest rates, which move inversely to bond prices, would, therefore, surge, presumably prompting a serious retrenchment. Foreigners would surely offload many of their US equities, too, and Americans would not be far behind them.
Then there would be an inflationary surge. A 40 per cent decline in the dollar’s value, would, other things being equal, push up import prices by a similar amount and the feed-through to the broader economy would be swift and painful.
But what has happened? In the past 5½ years, US Treasury prices actually have soared. In early 2002 the yield on the benchmark ten-year Treasury was about 5.5 per cent. It is now about 4 per cent. Equities, on a broad measure, are up by about 50 per cent in the past five years.
Inflation? It has gone up, but hardly enough to notice. In December 2002, the core consumer price index (all prices except volatile food and energy costs) was up 1.9 per cent from a year earlier. Last month it was up to 2.2 per cent, still comfortably in line with what we have come to see as price stability.
Now there are lots of specific reasons that explain these unexpectedly benign outcomes: foreign central banks still buying US Treasuries; global savings keeping demand strong for all US assets; prices held low by international competition. And it is still true that we face serious challenges.
But when you think of all the factors that could have produced disaster in the past five years – not just a dollar collapse but soaring oil prices and an overextended housing market – you have to conclude that something quite fundamental has changed. The US and global economies continue to demonstrate a remarkable structural resilience and flexibility unseen in modern history.
Looking at the economic performance of the US, of course, most pundits still prefer the Stephen King metaphor to Walt Disney’s. But who would have thought it? The real world looks much more like Disney.
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The US is printing banknotes at the same rate as Germany in 1923. The only difference is that they have the Chinese and the Arabs to take them off their hands in return for goods and oil. If those accumulators of the greenback ever decide they should spend it then they will find out what sort of mickey-mouse money they truly have!
John Lance, Kissimmee, Florida, USA
MR BAKER, with a negative savings rate for the last few years (as compared to one of between 10 and 15% in France and Germany), where exactly do you suppose the money is going to come from to blow this bubble any bigger?!
Maybe you are hoping for an renewed increase in house-prices so that we can all (or at least those of us lucky enough) go and take out another 100k to fund our shopping on useless luxury goods, gizmos and gadgets until 2010?
EVER HEARD OF A CASH PYRAMID SCAM?!?!
Wishful thinking, France, France
If the value of the dollar falls then the value of dollar denominated assets measured in dollars should go up in dollar value to compensate. Seems to me the US stock markets have not appreciated enough. Especially considering many of these assets are global.
ed buscemi, New York, usa
Judith Donohue of Paris' comments don't reflect the turmoil in her own country right now. In fact, the relative stability and power of the United States--which far-and-away leads the world in economic academics--looks like a rosy environment in comparison to some other places with higher potential for terrorism and sobering demographics.
Mark Mulligan, Shepherdstown, USA/West Virginia
All is good then!!!! Shares went up by 50% when expressed in dollars that have lost 40% of their value... (and that's looking 5.5 years backwards, not 7.5...), The US have gone from a position of net creditor to one of massive debtor with up to 800 bln $/y deficits ... a massive hangover (subprime and others) is weighing on the value of US assets (even expressed in a devalued currency)... meaning the massive collapse value of assets is on going and a number of countries with massive amounts of $ are waiting for the bottom to buy depressed assets... but all is well, Madame La Marquise! ....From master to slave, the slope is great! Spend, spend, spend!...there will be a rude awakening...and it has started! I should frame this article...
Antoine, London, UK
The children's story, "The Emporer's New Clothes" is a good parallel for banks and complex finacial instruments.
Keith Calder, Ashford,
The Renaissance Man. Mr. Baker, in addition to being an expert on US politics and economy, can now add movie critic to his CV. But rest easy, Roger Ebert. In Washington, D.C. last weekend one could have seen, instead of Disney fluff and Stephen King horror, such thoughtful and intelligent films as Redacted, I'm Not There, Love in the Time of Cholera, The Price of Sugar and War/Dance.
Lynn, Cincinnati, Ohio
heh....I'll take Stephen King over Walt Disney any day! ALL HAIL THE KING!
Phil, Wisconsin,
I'm sure the people who are having their houses foreclosed upon tin the US will share the columnist's rosy view of affairs. Because the sea was full of icebergs and the Titanic hadnt hit one yet didnt mean it wasnt going to happen.
Note to Planet Baker - a more appropriate analogy to a Disney fairy story from article is the core consumer price index - he is one of the dwindling band who still believes this utterly meaningless & discredited statistic is of any relevance.
rick, sydney, australia
Just wait.....
charles tweed, auckland, new zealand
The IT revolution is pretty much taken for granted, but quite apart from the gadgetry it has spawned, the incremental increase in the general level of awareness, knowledge and understanding of a majority of the population enabled over time may have raised levels of optimism and hope for the future beyond dream levels of the past.
With ready access to the best that has been thought and said and artistic and cultural and excellence a few clicks away, it may be that in evolutionary progress the human element which has a preference for co-operation rather than aggression may now have a dominant advantage.
Whether that will continue to subdue the dark side of human nature is not known, but unless global political institutions were to be subverted, probability could favour the Disney-sryle outcome.
Possibly preferably in spirit rather than actual reality, although Mickey and Donald roles may still be available!
dr venables preller, Warminster, UK
And how about the time delay?.... Relative speaking: It has not been long since the housing downturn and the onset of the dollar fall. It is possible that more can emerge than the subprime crisis.
KSS, Cph, Denmark
The average American is in denial. The current fall of the dollar is a vote of no confidence by the rest of the world. A weaker dollar seemed like a good idea to reduce the trade deficit , but it has turned into a rout on the currency of the U.S.A.
As long as credit cards allow shopping and Walt Disney provides an escape from reality, the public will hope for the best and ignore the gathering clouds of a perfect storm: a credit crisis, the deficit, a housing collapse and a volatile stock market.
As long as journalists give the best case scenario, people will choose to filter out the reality they wish to avoid.
judith donohue, Paris, France
Look, I know it's a myth about lemmings - but you can't help thinking of them as we all plunge down the cliff face shouting 'So far, so good.' Tell people Northern Rock shares are worth 25p and they immediately start buying them at £1.10p I am thinking of opening a bank where I will sell £1 pounds coins for £2.50. I expect to be inundated.
eric campbell, harrogate , uk
" The US and global economies continue to demonstrate a remarkable structural resilience and flexibility unseen in modern history. "
Yes, its called consumer debt stupid.
As the so called sub-prime fiasco unfolds (the banks haven't even touched the tip of the iceberg interms of their writedowns), the dollar continues its slide (there is no indication, and you certainly haven't provided any to say the slide is about to bottom out) and the foreigers pull their funds from the stock market then I suspect you'll wake up and realise that the fundamantals haven't changed....
This time next year I suspect you'll be singing a different tune.
Zafar, Sheffield,
New business formation in Silicon Valley is now higher than at the height of the tech boom. The War in Iraq has begun to be won. The U.S. federal deficit is running at 1.8% of GDP per annum, the lowest rate since the end of WWII, even with the war going. Most importantly, we are at the very beginning of the end for the oil age.
What does this all mean? The U.S. ex-war would be running a budget surplus and ex-oil a massive trade surplus. Most important, the U.S. is about to spawn another technological boom which will dwarf the previous one. In fact, by a number of measures the U.S. scientific and technological lead is actually widening.
So I wonder if the markets are reacting to reality or the endless wishful thinking of anti-Americans everywhere.
W.H. Langeman, Tucson, USA AZ
That well known phrase, beloved of financial advisors comes to mind....'past performance is no guide to the future...' The flight to US treasury bonds has resulted in their glowing performance but this should not be read as a positive, I think it means that there is a lot of uncertainty out there. When people have such little faith in financial instruments with even the merest hint of risk, then surely that is a negative sign. As regards the large American suv's roaring down the interstate, these owners are locked into the ownership of these thirsty vehicles because the residual values are declining so rapidly. Does anyone think of saving petrol when driving? A light touch on the accelerator often means you get carved up by being continualy overtaken with cars slotting into ever smaller spaces in front of you. My experience of driving in the USA is that you have to 'go with the flow....'
Diddly Do, Liverpool,
I read your article with interest and there is a whole lot of truth to it but what if the US and global economies so-called resilience and flexibility was actually a series of fire-fighting measures being put in place by all the worlds economies so that the US does not get dragged down? Its hardly a revelation to say that if the US economy goes belly up then so does the rest of the worlds. So its in everyone's best interest to keep it afloat. If that attitude begins to change then, and only then, will we see the true extent of the US fiscal policies of the last 10 years, and that includes Democrat and Republican administrations.
Thats my opinion for what its worth.
Will Holden, Dublin, Ireland
Low Treasury yields are nothing to do with the Fed monetizing US government debt then......inflating every other asset in sight. The run on the dollar will only intensify from here on in..........
James, Singapore,
Petrol prices have more than tripled in the US since the end of the last century and yet Americans still hammer up and down the I95 in their SUVs. If things were bad you might have thought that they would still have their SUVs (too expensive to change them) but would ease off the accelerator a bit.. But no.
Steve Byrne, christchurch, UK
How about "The Emporer's New Clothes" as a parallel for banks and complex financial instruments.
Keith Calder, Ashford,