Gary Duncan: Economic view
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to The Sunday Times
We have all been pretty lucky so far. Over the past four years oil prices have soared ever higher, yet the world economy has just kept on motoring – literally and metaphorically.
While the twin oil shocks of the Seventies brought global growth to a juddering halt and plunged the West into prolonged and painful recessions, things have been very different this time around – so far, at least.
As oil prices have risen from a quite-hard-to-recall $30 a barrel as recently as the end of 2003 to $50 in 2004, $60 in 2005, $70 in 2006 and, in recent weeks, more than $90 a barrel, the global economy has cruised on almost regardless. The past few years have, in fact, marked the strongest sustained worldwide economic boom since the Seventies.
Yet with analysts now sounding warnings that the cost of crude will almost inevitably breach $100 a barrel within days, the question is: can the world’s luck last? Are we, finally, reaching a tipping point where the relentless bad news from the black stuff will at last exact a real economic toll?
Worryingly, it seems likely that we are, indeed, approaching just such a threshold. To understand why, we need to consider the key factors that have insulated the West’s oil-consuming nations from the impact of surging energy costs and whether we can continue to rely on these to shield our economies as crude prices climb into triple digits.
The West can at least continue to draw considerable comfort from the knowledge that, essential to our economies though oil may be, our dependence on it has vastly diminished since the Seventies.
What economists call the “oil intensity” of GDP – the amount of oil needed for each pound of national output we produce – has dropped to just 15 per cent of its level in 1970.
Even gas-guzzling America needs only 13 per cent of the oil that it required in the Seventies for each dollar of output. And Europe’s “oil intensity” is a tenth of what it was back then.
While this reduced reliance on crude is reassuring, two further vital factors that have helped the developed world to escape any serious economic fallout from dearer energy now fail to offer the protection that they have up to this point.
First, the dynamic behind spiralling oil prices has shifted. Over the past few years, the driving force propelling the cost of crude to ever-greater highs has been the potent demand for energy created by a very robust global economy. Now, however, oil prices are continuing to climb even as prospects for world growth next year are deteriorating sharply.
It is true that demand for oil continues to be reinforced by China’s burgeoning appetite for energy, with rising Chinese consumption taking up three quarters or more of any extra crude production. Yet it still seems apparent that, on top of this, significant concerns over supply and a very substantial speculative element are giving added impetus to prices. ING, the investment bank, notes that speculative long positions in the crude market, betting on oil reaching prices well in excess of $100, and as high as $200, are at extreme levels not seen for years.
More serious than this changed dynamic behind oil’s rise, however, is that the surge in crude comes at a time when the US economy is dangerously vulnerable.
The world economy’s resilience to oil’s rapid rise during this decade has owed a great deal to the ability of a robust American expansion to absorb shocks of all sorts. This time, though, this first line of defence for global growth looks very weak indeed.
The US economy is already reeling from the impact of a brutal housing slump and the severe credit squeeze sparked by the resulting shake out in the sub-prime mortgage market. Now, America faces a further “double whammy” as the record cost of crude undermines growth while at the same time triggering a leap in US inflation that will seriously impede the Federal Reserve’s ability to respond with lower interest rates.
As Capital Economics suggests in a timely report today, the malign combination of badly faltering growth with rising inflationary pressures now confronting the United States raises the spectre of another Seventies economic terror – stagflation.
The risks to US growth are all too clear. The knock-on effects of oil prices could see the cost of gasoline for US motorists rise by as much as 50 per cent over the next couple of months. On top of that, the average American’s home heating bill is set to double this winter. Combined with the continued toll from the housing market’s downturn and the credit squeeze, it is far from implausible that these blows will see the US economy shrink in the final quarter of this year.
Yet at the same time, the Fed is likely to have to grapple with a probable jump in inflation. Capital Economics forecasts that the effects of sharply increased energy costs could push headline US inflation to nearly 5 per cent, levels not seen for 16 years, by December.
With the plunge in the dollar also stoking inflationary pressures in America, the almost inevitable consequence of this for the Fed will be that it will take longer to deliver the cuts in interest rates that will ultimately be necessary to shore up economic activity. In turn, that points to a more painful outcome, not just for America, but for the rest of the world.
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If you want to know what I think, I would like to see the President's Swiss Bank account. Every time he threathens someone oil prices jump. There is no shortage and as long as OPEC controlled the prices, since the Eighties, we have not had this problem. So you see I think we have other worries than the Reign of Terror. We need to get our people back here, find a solution with other governments around the world, on situations like Global warming, Alternative Fuels and QUIT being the bully George Bush has made us. Any fool can see that The New York Exchange is Causing all this mess and I think Bush knows what he is doing. He is about to push us into a Recession as big as 1929 was. I can't even afford to go see my grandchildren in Conn., I live in NC because of this. But I would bet Bush's Girls and himself go where ever when ever and don't pay for a drop of gas. This is am American citizen speaking with hopes his country can be saved.
Alton Scott, Oakboro, NC
Reference to BP's Statistical Review 2007 will show that Saudi crude oil production reached a peak in 2005, falling by 2.3% in 2006. If this is the ultimate peak, then Saudi Arabia has lost its ability to be the "swing" producer able to regulate the market. Supply matters more than derivatives.
ASPO reckons the global "regular" oil peak was passed in 2005, but we do know for sure that the UK passed its in 1999. If it is right shouldn't Brown and Darling reflect on its consequences?
If they concede it, then Its time the government spelt out that the motor and aviation industries will be the first casualties of oil depletion and cancelled all road and runway expansions. Increasing usage will simply bring the demise of thousands of jobs sooner.
It is time for government capital to be expended on the technology of survival, not on a Lemming-like rush to economic catastrophe.
John Busby, Bury St Edmunds, UK
.. theres been large discoveries of oil in China and Uganda, plus other places around the globe, how come these are never factored in , in terms of price?. True, there is a lag between discovery and production, but meanwhile the world is also going to find a replacement for the black sticky stuff, then we wont be constantly held to ransome ...
Mike Durban RSA
Mike Thomas, Durban, RSA
Global governments must bring to a halt the games being played by so few that are affecting so many. Short of making commodity trading/speculating illegal, stringent rules must be brought into the "markets" re:oil hedging......a few hundred over-paid, morality-free fund and investment managers are speculating on oil going North whilst the rest of the developed world pay for it. This is shameless behaviour on the part of the speculators and the governments that ignore it.
Stop this now, there is ZERO need for economies to be struggling at all except for the nonsensical commodity and currency speculating that is partaken by so very few yet is paid for by so very many
Maybe we need Bono to turn his attention to this cause
Keith Doyle, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands
Sorry Joe I don't your argument blaming it all on the speculators. The real reason is the rise of China and emerging Asia; the continued demand from the west; geopolitical tensions and the fact there has been massive underinvestment in oil exploration and refining since 1980. The world has run out of cheap oil. No gigantic discoveries have been made since Prudhoe Bay in 1969.
High oil prices will correct with a recession but do not look for $30 or $40 oil again for a long time. probably never once oil is priced in Euros and other currencies as it should, indeed must, sooner rather than later.
oldasiahand, Guildford, UK
An interesting fact....only 10% of Iran (the worlds 3rd largest oil producer) has been explored for oil and gas reserves. Analysts reckon that Iran, by using modern Western oil extraction and exploration techniques, could triple its crude oil output over a period of 5-10 years. Now, we may be able to understand why the country is on the verge of being 'wiped off the face of the map' by our 'noble' and 'compassionate' Western leaders. Bet BP is at the forefront of lobbying the UK govt for a regime change.
Samuel, Glasgow,
Whilst it is true the oil dependency of UK gdp has decreased this is only because we have become a FIRE economy. We still buy and use manufactured items, it's just that most are now imported. The oil burden of their manufacture still exists but now takes place in other countries. Add in transport and more oil is being used not less! The amazing thing is that there has been no significant decrease in oil consumption in the UK and US despite the huge structural shifts in the economy.
To say we are less dependent on oil is not only untrue but hints at dangerous complacency.
MC, Lothians
mc, Edinburgh, Lothian
Could be that the problem rests in refining capacity! The industry
has seen the problems of Nigeria,and USA refining, unable meet the growing demand.
keith taylor, BO)DMIN, U.K
When Browns tax take is falling in other areas, what incentive does he have to take action in reducing fuel costs and the tax bonus he receives, Sorry but it will take another public protest to make him buckle again (and he will)
Mike Rolph, Sevenoaks,
Whilst the price is high the longer-term losers will be the oil producers. Nuclear energy and hydrogen fuel cells are feasible replacements, nuclear fusion is a desirable - if yet unachievable - alternative, and we will no doubt add wave and wind power, plant oils and plenty else into the mix. All you need is a pricing mechanism to reallocate resources.
Imagine an oil-free future where the governments of the west have secure supply, Arab assets have been expropriated, militant Islam has lost its funding, and despots from Hugo Chavez to Ahmedinajad to Vladimir Putin have been kicked out when the oil price collapsed.
Keep the price high!
Dave, Slough,
While speculators undoubtedly are pushing up the oil price - and profiting very handsomely from doing so - the Elephant in the Living Room that mainstream politicians and many journalists still refuse to acknowledge is the unavoidable limit on the supply of crude. So many indicators and experts are now confirming that, globally, we are now at Peak Oil production, that it is becoming increasingly absurd to talk about anything involving oil - and indeed the future of the economy in general - without factoring in its inevitable impact.
Everything we 'know' about economics and growth is based on a world where overall energy supply increases constantly. But that world has gone; from now on the energy available is set to shrink constantly. Time to tear up the old textbooks, we've never been here before. In fact, perhaps we should burn them - the energy released will help keep industrial civilisation running for a little longer.
Nick Griffin, Y Trallwng, Wales
If it is indeed futures market manipulation that is causing high oil prices ratehr than actual physical demand then the governmen tcould kill this off pretty quickyly by heavy intervention in the futures markets and threatening to release strategic oil stocks to increase supplies still further.
Neil Murphy, cromer,
China has so far refused to pay the extra cost and has fixed the domestic price of petrol to around 35P per litre. It has caused some supply problems but the oil company's have come to the party, That is for one third of the worlds population the other one third cannot afford petrol which leaves one third causing this market manipulation as Joe points out. We have been shielded by the American $ fall which will cause American inflation to go though the roof the final payment for the interest cut which was made to save the market living on growing property and share speculation. World leaders in the west will oneday realize that we cannot survive on selling coffeees and the free Internet growth but minerals and manufacturing are the real economy drivers.
Jamie, Adelaide, Australia
The city traders are creating a false demand for oil with their commodities trading which has seen a false increase of 40%. This is the true reason why we pay more at the pumps and why the government allows this market manipulation is bizarre.
joe, Edinburgh, Scotland