Gerard Baker: American View
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Almost nine years ago, at the height of the last great global financial panic, Time magazine interrupted its regular cover-story diet of TV Shows You Can’t Miss and Foods That Will Help You Live To A Hundred and ran a front page that proclaimed boldly “The Committee to Save the World”.
Beaming at readers from the glossy newsweekly’s cover were three toilers in the normally sheltered fields of financial policy now suddenly enjoying their moment in the solar glare of popular attention.
Robert Rubin, then Treasury Secretary in President Clinton’s Administration, Larry Summers, his deputy and later successor at Treasury, and Alan Greenspan, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, were, we were told, the men who stood between us and global financial collapse.
In Time’s inimitable, breathless prose, it was explained how, by assembling a succession of IMF bailouts, cutting US interest rates and holding the hands of agitated investors and policymakers, these three amigos were steadily restoring stability to a troubled world.
Somebody must have found a copy of that issue of Time in the US Treasury recently because Hank Paulson, the present Treasury Secretary, seems to be on his own Mission To Save The Planet. With markets still nervous about the state of the US sub-prime mortgage market and its impact on the global economy, Mr Paulson is assembling a similar committee armed with clever measures designed to avert a financial disaster.
Of course, in the case of Mr Paulson, one of the original big movers on Wall Street, the committee consists of only one member - Hank himself, the former Goldman Sachs chief and Master of The Universe.
In the past week he has been putting together a plan for major banks to establish a $100 billion (£49 billion) fund to provide liquidity to those of their brethren caught off-guard by the market’s reluctance to trade in certain types of asset-backed securities.
The superconduit, as it is called, will provide help for banks with structured investment vehicles (SIVs), the off-balance sheet funds that took large bets on risky assets in the past few years and now face taking a very wet bath in the coming months as prices for some of the paper they hold fall sharply.
On the face of it, the plan looks suspiciously like a government-orchestrated (but not government-funded – banks will contribute funds) bailout for Citigroup, which has some of the largest and most troubled SIVs. As it happens, Citigroup is now the home of founder Committee To Save The World member Mr Rubin, Mr Paulson’s old partner at Goldman.
Although the Treasury insists the plan is necessary to avoid systemic financial problems that could result from the weakness in asset-backed securities markets, it reeks of favourable treatment for banks. There’s an important distinction between what the Federal Reserve has done in response to the current financial difficulties and what the Treasury seems to be up to. Unlike the Fed cutting interest rates, a necessary measure, broad in scope, that is aimed at protecting the economy but has the unfortunate side-effect of helping financial institutions that might not deserve it, this one fails the moral hazard test. It looks like a continuing and open-ended commitment to insulate certain financial institutions from the unpleasant and impoverishing consequences of some breathtakingly risky moves. Why should banks that made irresponsible decisions in the boom years get government-orchestrated assistance from shareholders of other banks?
It enhances the growing suspicion that Mr Paulson is a bit too close to his old friends on Wall Street.
As I understand from senior administration officials, it is not the only bailout that Mr Paulson is promoting. In internal Bush Administration tussles, the Treasury Secretary has been expressing extreme concern about the state of the US housing market, especially the more than $600 billion in adjustable-rate mortgage debt that is about to reset at much higher interest rates. Mr Paulson, from what I hear, has suggested making funds available to mortgage lenders so that they can restructure those loans. Helping homeowners in distress is surely wise, politically if not economically. But must the money men who helped them into their distress also be rescued?
Mr Paulson’s great strength, when he came to Washington a year and a half ago, was that, unlike his predecessors in the Bush Administration, he had experience on Wall Street. His contacts there mean that he has surely handled the stressful events of the past few months with a deep understanding of the issues confronting American bankers in their hour of need. But there is a point where that understanding can tip over into an unhealthily cosy relationship.
It will do the world - and its financial markets - no good in the long term if the Bush Administration’s financial policymaking apparatus becomes The Committee to Save Wall Street.
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What is good for Goldman Sachs is always going to be Ok by Paulson.CDO's were yet another piece of financial crap to allow speculators to make money on often worthless paper.It was always obvious to anyone who cared to look, that the fundamental security of much of this paper was essentially non existent.Now the banks will try and bail each other out of their own greed and stupidity,but the rest of us will pay the price as usual.Do not cry for Paulson or Goldman Sachs,they will be ok,promise.
Keith Pirelli, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
So it is true ! there is a major bank failure on the cards. Perhaps Citi, more likely JP Morgan. Otherwise, why would they try to create such a large fund - one that dwarfs hedge funds.
The big question has to be about the behind the scenes action regarding helping the housing mortgage industry.
While not all will fail, there are 2 trillion dollars worth of mortgage resets that has to happen over the next 18 months. The spring is going to be an interesting time because so much will have happened by then.
DK, London, UK
How many billion dollars a month are transfered by the USA to debt-holders outside USA?
How substancial is the share of interests in the trade deficit?
Can that ever be corrected?
Peter Vernunft, Berlin, Germany
Presumably other banks will only contribute to a bail-out if they see some insurance for themselves against systemic risk or a profit down the line. They won't do it for free. That's capitalism.
So I don't see the problem. If Paulson was doing nothing about this problem I can imagine an article from you about "Nero" Paulson.
Marek, London,
Maybe watching this would explain things a little better...
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5232639329002339531
Nacho, Madrid, Spain
It would be interesting if you could connect the recent actions of Mr. Paulson with the "Plunge Protection Team." It has been widely reported that team was first assembled to counter the market crash of 1987. It was said to have included several of the major Wall Street Banks and the U.S. Treasury who would act in concert to buy stock futures of corporations included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That strategy was given credit for the rapid recovery of the stock market after the 1987 crash, the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and 9/11. The presumption has been its continued activity has prevent stock market melt down during the war in Iraq.
If this Plunge Protection Team is active as described, it would explain, 1) why the big banks continued to make stunning profits since 9/11, 2) why Goldman Sachs recently reported a 72% increase in profits for its past fiscal year, and 3) why the Treasury would be compelled to save the big banks.
Dale R. Evans, Los Gatos, USA / CA