James Harding, Business Editor
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Barclays shares had a rare good day yesterday, up 3 per cent to 621p. But they remain way below the 750p level at which they were trading before John Varley, the chief executive, embarked on his Dutch adventure earlier this year. While the winner’s curse has hit the shares of Royal Bank of Scotland, the near-certain victor in the battle for ABN Amro, Barclays does not seem to have benefited from its corollory, the loser’s blessing.
Indeed, Barclays has become a favourite “short” for some hedge funds. Its unmasking as the bank forced to go to the Bank of England for overnight funds hurt it. Rumours about the bank seeking to cut credit lines to clients continue to plague it.
Bob Diamond, the Barclays president, went on the record on September 10 to scotch some of the whispers, announcing that Barclays Capital, the investment banking unit that he heads, had traded profitably in August after valuing all its positions according to current market prices. Frits Seegers, the retail banking chief, scooped up 50,000 shares at 594p the other day, giving his vote of personal confidence in the bank. Yet still the unease continues. September proved to be a grisly month for banks like Citigroup and UBS, which this week issued profit warnings. Like them, Barclays has been a large and aggressive player in the credit markets. Might the assumptions underpinning the valuation of mortgage vehicles and leveraged loans in the BarCap portfolio need to be reworked?
Barclays is not due to make any trading update until November 27. That is a long time for shareholders to wait in markets as nervous as these. Over the next weeks and months, Mr Varley will be working flat out to convince shareholders that going back to Plan A, organic expansion, is the correct strategy. More immediately, however, there is a strong case for more transparency.
Mr Varley is expected formally to accept defeat in his campaign for ABN on Friday, the first closing date for the RBS consortium offer. He will be able to reassure investors that the £80 million advisory fees incurred are more than covered by the €200 million (£138.6 million) break fee. It would be a convenient moment, too, to bare any scars inflicted by the credit crunch.
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