Gary Duncan: Analysis
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The spectacle of thousands of fearful Northern Rock customers laying siege to the embattled lender’s branches across the country - the sort of scenes not witnessed in Britain for decades – seems certain to deal a blow to the country’s confidence in wider economic prospects.
Even if, as seems likely, the government guarantees given yesterday succeed in ending the run on Britain’s fifth-biggest mortgage lender, the Chancellor and Labour strategists will be anxious over the damage to sentiment over the soundness of the economy – the continued strength of which remains a central plank of the Government’s political strategy.
The blow from the Northern Rock debacle comes at a time when economic confidence is already being sapped by the the Bank of England’s five interest-rate increases since August last year, the full effect of which is only now starting to be felt in many people’s pockets.
Consumers, laden with £1.35 trillion of debt, are feeling the pinch as higher repayment costs and dearer mortgages for those who are seeing the end of cheap fixed-rate loans add to the burden of last year’s steep increases in utility bills.
Clear signs are emerging that the twin engines that have sustained the economy in recent years – the high street and the housing market – are feeling the effects.
In the high street, recent sales activity has disappointed. Although poor trading has been worsened by the washout from a wet July, official figures from August due his week are tipped to confirm that growth in retail sales either stalled last month, or fell within a fraction of doing so.
News from the residential property market has taken a grim turn. A survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) last week suggested that average house prices are now falling for the first time in two years. That diagnosis was borne out by figures on Friday from Rightmove, the property website, which indicated that asking prices from home sellers dropped by 2.6 per cent last month.
With this worrisome backdrop left looking bleaker by the apparently growing impact of the worldwide crunch in the money markets, both at home and in America and Europe, it will not be surprising if the nation soon finds itself in a state of high anxiety over the economic outlook. The “R” word, recession, is being quietly murmured by some of the edgiest observers.
Just how bad, then, will things get? The good news is that, while the financial market upheavals of recent weeks have seen pundits in the City, on Wall Street and in the big international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund forced to rethink their rosy assessment of global prospects, a slump by the world or British economy into any sort of severe downturn still remains a relatively remote prospect.
Economists do expect Britain’s growth to slow markedly next year, after a prolonged run of very robust expansion. The consensus view is now that growth next year could fall to as little as 2.1 per cent, from a likely pace of about 2.8 per cent this year. A big factor in any slowdown will be an inevitable pullback next year in the headlong growth of the City, whose boom has made the financial sector a vital motor for Britain’s economy.
But there are still good reasons to keep a cool head. Today, the US Federal Reserve is set to bolster the American economy with a cut in interest rates and this will underpin global conditions.
Here, it is likely that further bad news from the housing market will soon be creating a climate of dread.
The reality is that history suggests that the sort of crash that many fear has required a trigger in the form of a sharp economic downturn and rising unemployment. With the Bank of England likely to follow the Fed’s lead and cut interest rates here to bolster growth. such scenarios still look farfetched.
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After liveing in America where most banks are FDIC insured which offers some protection , how come we do not have a simlear system here !!
It is also true that when America coughs we get a cold in the UK...
John, London, uk
You are disregarding the most significant factor which is the reassessment of risk. This will take a few months to work through but the reduced availability of credit will mean a significant reduction in growth in the UK service sector. If that means a growth in unemployment that could be the trigger for a larger house- price fall.
As regards lessons to be learnt from Northern Rock perhaps the FSA should insist that all Bank Boards view the banking scenes from Mary Poppins at least once a year!
Gerry Lynch, chichester,
I totally agree with the two earlier comments. By reducing interest rates all we will be doing is throwing petrol on a blazing fire.
The instinct of the Governor of the Bank of England is correct.
We need to stop this madness not sustain it, because if we dont we really will have a crisis,
James, NI, UK
The housing crisis is the result of earlier Federal Reserve easy money policies. The free market is better than central bank or government intervnetion and manipulation of the economy.
The Federal Reserve is to blame for much of the financial panic sweeping the world. The online âAbolish the Federal Reserve Petitionâ is rapidly gaining signatures during economic turmoil today.
Today the world financial system and investment markets, real estate and the availability of credit are all under direct assault due to past actions of the Federal Reserve in the United States.
Read and sign the Ron Paul Is Right â Abolish the Federal Reserve Petition at http://www.petitiononline.com/fed/petition.html
Please link to the petition and forward this message to your friends and help the general public wake up during the current financial panic conditions to the problems we face from the Federal Reserve. You can also read comments from hundreds of signers who aren't shy in saying what t
Ron Holland, Mars Hill, NC USA
Karl Marx argued that the value of a commodity is the amount of labour time incorporated in it. In the case of UK houses we are talking of about £40-60K for new houses, the present price in Germany for such new builds. The orgy of speculation on property conceals behind it this simple fact. House prices will fall and fall dramatically to around or below the cost of production.
Suddenly the Brownites want to Nationalise the banks, well then go ahead! You could then fix mortgage repayments at a rate which would both reduce prices and reduce costs of the home owner. Where homeowners face repossession you could turn their mortgage into a council rental agreement.
heiko khoo, London , UK
I suspect that interest rate cuts will be minimal, both in America, Europe and the UK. I suspect the Fed will cut interest rate by 0.25% today, but no more this year. I expect a "wait and see" statement from the Fed, with a bit about it will act to prevent recession should signs develop. Also a bit of self congratulation on keeping liquidity in the money markets: compared with other developed markets i.e. London
The ECB and BOE will leave interest rates where they are for the rest of this year, so no great relief for the banks.
Finally I suspect the 'buy-to-rent' housing market to collapse, especially in London. All those "bright young things" working for the investment banks who lose their jobs by Christmas will up sticks and return home: especially a significant chunk of the 150,000 French graduates working in London
Bryan McGrath, Weston-s-Mare,
Interest rates should go up to encourage people to save money.
Even if house prices fall back by 20%, it's only the first time buyers who bought in the last two years who will be looking at a paper loss. All the rest are still looking at a good profit. House owners have had a great ride for the last decade and shouldn't come whining if prices come down a bit.
I hope that after this debacle the government brings out a law to limit the amount that people can borrow on a house. The old multiple of 2.5 times annual salary worked very well in the past, and obviously the financial institutions are not responsible enough themselves.
I hope that the rate of return on deposit accounts will be a few points above the house price inflation.
Dick Pennytell, Watford,
"Consumers, laden with £1.35 trillion of debt, are feeling the pinch "
Sorry, just who imposed this burden on them?
Nick, Potters Bar, UK
Housing is in a classic bidding situation. With too little stock, and everyone needing somewhere to live, prices go up and up until people at the bottom literally cannot raise the cash.
However lenders are going to be much more cautious in future, reducing the amount of money chasing housing. Though underlying demand will remain strong, prices will fall, then there will be a feedback effect as the expectation of further falls reduces lender's willingness to lend still further. Then you will see more defaults - people are much less willing to pay good money to reduce negative equity than to buy an asset.
Malcolm McLean, Bradford, UK
How much room for manoeuvre do the rate setters really have? Look at the reports on these pages. The oil price is rising, inflation in China is increasing and its currency is steadily appreciating. The cost of wheat, corn, meat and dairy produce is also rising by double digit percentages. Won't these numbers soon lead to a spike in the CPI? Or is it that the CPI is engineered to allow the government to continue to inflate the economy with low interest rates and completely impoverish anyone who doesn't already own a house?
Strephen Grindle, London, UK
Mr. Duncan you are obviously too young to remember the crash of 1973 which led to NatWest being rescued by the BoE in a situation which was almost exactly the same as we have now with Northern Rock. This resulted in a credit crunch which resulted in the British economy coming to a virtual standstill for about 5 years. I would just remind you of the definition of an optimist: "a pessimist who hasn't got all the facts".
Adam Murza, Croydon,
Spot on, Paul, Harrogate.
I own two brownfield sites near Leeds which could probably accommodate 90 or so family dwellings, but I have made little progress with Leeds City Council over the last ten years, mainly due to the refusal to deal with hghways issues. Their standard response is either no, no, no or give us some money.
They only want to deal with big developers in the City Centre who will line their palms. And what has Leeds ended up with? An overdeveloped desert of shoeboxes suitable only for single people.
MarkS, Leeds,
Paul of Tunbridge Wells, house prices are not high because of Northern Rock, which has lent sensibly and has arrears at half the industry average, but due to the shortage of housing in this country. The population has swelled well beyond 60 million and our building has completely failed to keep up. I agree prices are far too high but until we sort out our awful planning process, and require/encourage builders to re-use more brownfield sites, we will still see demand above supply and firm prices.
And if you don't believe me on the supply/demand argument just look at Leeds, where a boom in apartment building in the city centre has lead to very flat prices, despite a thriving economy.
Tom Paul, Harrogate, North Yorkshire
Why is it bad news that house prices decline? The UK economy has become totally unbalanced and the young are having to borrow obscene amounts to buy a home. Yet house prices are only so high because the likes of Northern Rock have lent so much to so many poor credit risks. I look forward to a return to relatively normal economic conditions in future years, though there will be many more casualties before we get there.
Paul, Tunbridge Wells, Kent
You're arguing that an interest rate cut, led by the Fed, will save the day? In other words a good dose of inflation, which is what got us into this mess in the first place. Remember effectively negative rates after 9/11? Who still thinks that was a good idea? Consensus views on economic growth are worthless, if the UK housing market follows America by collapsing, all bets are off.
Dr William Shaw, melbourne, australia