Grant Ringshaw
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SINCE Peter Sands abruptly took over as chief executive at Standard Chartered last November, watchers of the emerging-markets bank have been searching for any sign of a shift in strategy.
Interim results last month put greater emphasis on organic growth, leading some to ponder whether Sands would have less of a voracious appetite for deals than his predecessor Mervyn Davies, who is now chairman.
Yet in the past month, Standard has made some canny deals. Last week it paid about $100m (£50m) for the oil-and-gas advisory boutique Harrison Lovegrove. A few weeks ago it bought a 49% stake in an Indian brokerage. Standard has also been linked with a $260m bid for Hannuri, a South Korean investment bank. These are tiny compared with the deals Davies pulled off in Korea and Taiwan. But they show a pragmatic approach – the Harrison Lovegrove deal fits with Standard’s ambitions to drive forward the decent growth at its wholesale bank; buying Hannuri in Korea would improve relationships in a market that has been tough.
There are bigger targets. Standard wants to do deals in Asia, the Middle East and Africa, where it has been linked with South Africa’s Nedbank.
The reality is that there is probably not much difference between the Sands and Davies approach. The big issue remains whether Standard’s growth prospects justify its heady premium rating.
Standard’s reach in emerging markets makes it a unique business, but as analysts at Keefe Bruyette & Woods argue, recent growth rates are similar to those of some British banks.
The shares are down 11.4% in the past month, but have outperformed amid concerns about rivals’ exposure to the credit-market turmoil.
Standard might look cheap, but there is probably better value if you are prepared to take the risk and make a punt on its bombed-out rivals.
Ashtead
ALL the elements to scare investors – high exposure to American markets, high debt and high operational gearing – are present at Ashtead.
No wonder shares in one of the world’s biggest equipment rental firms have been hammered in recent months.
There is no doubt that the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the American housing-market malaise will get more bloody.
But the impact on Ashstead seems to have been overplayed.
For a start, though 94% of Ashtead’s profits come from hiring out construction equipment in America, just 10% is directly linked to house building. Nonresidential construction is driven by corporate profits and investment, which both look reasonably strong. The market rose 8% last year.
Ashtead appears to be delivering. First-quarter profits beat analysts’ expectations, rising by 26%. Revenues were up 44%. The company is also making good progress integrating Nations Rent, an American rival bought for $1 billion in a transformational deal last year.
Nations Rent’s fleet, which was too reliant on volatile revenues from heavy earth-moving equipment, has been shaken up and margins at the American business have risen from 16.7% to almost 22%.
Ashtead has certainly had its problems – four years ago the shares tanked to just 5p after accounting irregularities in its American business.
Sceptics stung by that debacle may still be wary. There have been hints that the nonresidential construction market could be topping out – recent results from American rival United Rentals disappointed – but the market should grow by 4%-5% this year. Ashtead’s revenues look pretty solid – construction projects can be long, providing equipment rentals for three to four years.
The £657m business has hefty debts of £894m, but is a strong generator of cash.
The shares have slumped from 230p last year and are down 13.8% in the past month to 121Äp. Ashtead trades on a price/earnings ratio for next year of 8.7, a chunky discount to its American peers.
Right now is a good time to exploit the market’s misconceptions and buy.
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