Irwin Stelzer
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THOSE of you who depend on the BBC for your news about America are undoubtedly well informed about my country’s political and economic condition.
You know that the president’s most trusted advisers are jumping ship in increasing numbers. And that we Americans are finally getting our come-uppance for years of too-much-borrowing for too-big-cars and McMansions that gobble energy and warm the globe. House and share prices are falling, the Iraqi government can’t seem to capi-talise on the successful surge, and our bridges are falling down – the collapse of one of the tens of thousands of bridges in the United States received more press coverage in Britain than any event with the possible exception of the in-and-out rehab experiences of various celebrities.
No wonder, then, that Americans are in a deep funk. Except we aren’t. The latest Harris Interactive poll shows that “Overall, Americans are definitely satisfied with the life they lead.” Almost all – 94% – are either very satisfied (56%) or somewhat satisfied (38%). This is not only a very high figure. It is increasing – from 91% in 2003.
You may have heard tales from various Democratic presidential wannabees about “the other America”, and about the huge numbers of Americans who have not shared in the nation’s recent increasing economic prosperity. Odd, then, that over half of all adults say their situation has improved in the past five years, and only 17% say it has become worse (a quarter say they are in about the same place they were five years ago).
Note that all these data relate to how people feel about their personal lives. When it comes to the country, only 19% say America is moving in the right direction. This is one of those odd phenomena – most people are satisfied with their own schools but say that America’s education system is a mess; most people like and reelect their own congressmen, but hold Congress in low repute (18% approval rating); most people like the immigrants, legal and illegal, that work for them, but are against immigration in general. Familiarity breeds enchantment, and distance lends contempt when it comes to voters’ assessments of American institutions – except for the military, which remains the most respected of all American institutions.
That’s the way we are as we enjoy the three-day Labor Day weekend. As you read this, millions of hot dogs and hamburgers are being grilled in America’s backyards, and millions of couch potatoes are watching their favourite baseball team or the tennis matches at the US Open.
Meanwhile, on the economic front the good news is that not all the news is bad. Yes, the housing market is in disarray, with inventories of unsold houses rising, prices falling and many families unable to meet their mortgage obligations. And yes, more bad news is to come when low, initial mortgage-interest rates are “reset” at higher levels.
Whether the troubles in the credit and financial markets will do more than slow the growth of the “real” economy is the subject of considerable debate. The economy grew at a healthy annual rate of 4% in the second quarter, but that was before the recent upsets in financial markets. Last month sales of durable goods rose by a healthy 5.9%, but other indicators suggest that consumers are starting to rein in their spending.
The unemployment rate has been a low 4.6%, but that is before the lay-offs in the financial-services and residential construction industries are taken into account. Banks’ balance sheets seem healthy, but the mark-downs in the value of some of their dicier assets have not yet been factored in. World growth has been robust and driven American exports, but that was before the problems in German, British and other financial markets made themselves felt, and before China decided to hit the brake with a bit more force.
Some analysts are convinced that unless the Federal Reserve Board’s monetary policy committee cuts interest rates no later than its September 18 meeting – sooner would be better – the economy will lapse into recession. The Fed is listening: chairman Ben Bernanke says he is “prepared to act as needed”.
But the Fed has to worry about two things. First, Bernanke does not want to send a signal that no matter how imprudent lenders and borrowers have been, he will bail them out. That would create what economists call “moral hazard”. Second, he has to consider whether a cut in interest rates might add to inflation-ary pressures. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is tame. But include those items – people do eat and do drive – and the situation becomes complicated. The original reason for excluding food and energy was that prices of those commodities tended to be volatile, making monthly changes unrevealing of underlying trends. But that was then and this is now. We might be witnessing, not volatility, but a long-term upward trend in oil and food prices. The Opec cartel has learnt to gear its members’ output to the level of crude and petrol inventories, putting a floor under prices at a time when production is not keeping pace with demand.
And food prices are now reflecting the decision of several governments to convert corn and other products to petrol in the tank rather than food on the table.
Bernanke knows all this. He knows, too, that an unnecessary or premature cut in rates would scupper his antiinflation policy, while an overly delayed reduction in rates will tip the economy into recession. So he will have a somewhat more fraught Labor Day weekend than the vast majority of satisfied-with-life Americans. But my guess is that in the end he will take comfort from Friday’s report that incomes and spending are rising nicely, with inflation at unworrying levels, and conclude that his current policy is just about right.
Irwin Stelzer is a business adviser and director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute
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Why can't we have an economic commentator from China or India, (possibly both alternating weekly.) These nations are the economies we need to be hearing from; probably the engines of growth and innovation in the future. I'm pleased that Americans are felling happy about things as Irwin elucidates. Nevertheless I would like to hear about developments in Asia, home to more than half of the worlds population/consumers.
James Costello, Galway, Ireland
Sir,
The timing and the content and Max Hastingâs reviews of the Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy by John J Mearsheimer and Stephen M Watt is unhelpful and uninformative. The one-sided comments could be answered in detailed, but what is essential now rather then re-iterating old arguments is dialogue between all involved so as to build the trust which is essential for a just and lasting peace.
Revd Dr Marcus Braybrooke, Abingdon, Oxford
With the world population expected to increase by 3 billion by 2050 any increase in food prices today will seem totally irrelevant.
How will these people be fed?
Steve Byrne, Christchurch, UK
There seems to be an excessive number of Propaganda-oriented Business Analysts that regularly, and on special events, barrage the media outlets with reams of nonsense. Seems to be oriented towards those persons willing to read it that are not living within the US.
So this Summer we invited close relatives and friends from the EU to come, stay with us and view 1st-hand life in a prosperous Western Country allegedly number 1 in the ratings.
They returned well educated and shocked at what they experienced. With now 49 million uninsured (up from 45) they could not grasp the Healthcare environment. After the grocery store they wanted to go home. After the baggage handlers they needed to replace their luggage even when they had left them open.
We wow'ed them with reality. They changed their opinions; they still like the people.
Thomas Clark, Portland, Oregon, US
"Its gonna be a fact of life until someone decides to change the principle of the capatalist system."
I often wonder if people who bash capitalism have any idea what it means.
In short, the application of scarce resources to achieve maximum return.
I'm unsure how a communist government would magicaly create energy, or apply scarce resources in a manner that is better than whatever method generates the highest return.
Dominic, Manchester, UK
Hullo------"Corn Gas", however comforting it may seem to the "Greenies" in the world is not the answer, simply because there is not enough corn produced in the world to deliver the amounts of liquid needed to make a difference that the world can live with!
Stop with the PC self-delusionary process, and wake up, and you nitwits in government who keep presenting this alternative, are just trying to make "Brownie Points", with an un-informed voters. Sounds great on the stump, but doesn't work in real world.
jim johnson, framingham, ma.
Considering the IEA is forecasting world oil shortages come 2012 unless somehing miracluous is done then everyone wil be paying more for it as capatalist economic theory expects. So how much would be hurtful to the first world, $5 a gallon, probably would not be an issue but $10 would and it is not out of the question come 2020 for China and India and globalisation in general has put huge pressue on the global energy infrastructure and the US still clings to poor mpg and lobbying by fossil fuel companies still hits home where politicians are seduced by money and other niceties of life.
Prepare for higher food prices and higher fuel prices. Its gonna be a fact of life until someone decides to change the principle of the capatalist system.
Pete Best, Northampton, UK
Brilliant idea to link food prices to oil prices. How are we blessed with such political genius ?
China and Indonesia subsidise kerosene for cooking but face huge increases in food costs leading to worries of rioting and civil disorder.
Here is the West people pay more for bread, meat, milk and other staples so they can drive to the supermarket on biofuels.
Oh to be green.....as in wet behind the ears !
TomTom, Leeds, England
Irwin, I don't know where you live but I seriously doubt you get out much. The bridges are not falling down, the credit crunch is almost over and consumers are not reining in their spending. As one who, every day, is involved in financial markets, I shall keep this simple for you .
The true problem was manifested in the sub-prime mortgage market and the consequent implications in liquid markets. (e.g. money markets etc.) Liquidity was injected into the "system" via the discount rate not the fed funds rate.
I would suggest you learn the diverse meaning of "interest rate" and spend some time working on the Street rather than just sitting in your ivory tower pontificating on financial matters on which you have little understanding.
And Irwin, the British, like every other "internet-connected" nation, get their news from a variety of sources. The idea of just listening to the BBC shows not only your age but also your lack of understanding of the internet.
John Vierney, New York, New York
It must be made illegal to turn human or animal food into alcohol for fuel. It is a moral question about the nature of humanity. Alcohol can be made from many substances, including renewable wood. If we reforested America and used the wood wisely, and made public transport free, we would solve the majority of the pollution problem and change the weather for the better.
As for everyone being satisfied with their lot in America; what bof and piffle!!! Couples in my family are working 3 jobs, paying $600 a month for crappy private medical insurance, and will be bankrupt if they lose one of their 3 jobs. Will they be buying a house at ANY rate of interest. NO! Are the statistics true? NO! Very rich men own the media. They make up their statistics to order. There is more censorship and manufactured news in the American media than truthful reporting! The Patients are in charge of the Asylum.
victor compton, Cherbourg, France
I don't proclaim to be a market analsyst or even someone with in depth knowledge of the financial or govermental world, however the comment of Mr Stelzer on the topic of increasing food prices due to several governments decisions to use corn for petrol production really hit home with me.
I started out my working life and during 8 years worked for the worlds largest manufacturer of breakfast cereals. I therefore have a knowledge of the problems that these companies have in keeping prices down due to supermarket chains copying thier products for cheaper prices etc.
In my opinion the government should have acted from the begining with the corn farmers and worked out a process where they had to continue selling their products at the same volume and same price to all new or previous customers when it is for food consumption. They can then capatalise on price with the new investors looking to manufacture petrol -who will undoubtedly make their tidy profit as usual at the pump.
Alan Gemmell, Madrid, Spain
Economic and monetary management may possibly have evolved to different long term views to accommodate different levels of concern as to risks and preferred outcomes.
Within the limits of focussed opinion polls (which may steer thoughts in desired directions) people have a preference for apparent increase in some numbers (incomes and house prices) over time and aversion to other increases (food and living costs and taxes).
It remains only for masters of the arts of description, presentation and statistical interpretation to convince minds that what they may intuitively know cannot be for ever may seem more favourable than appearance would suggest.
As the successful dreams and entertainment industry based in Hollywood knows, giving people more of what they want may seem a snap, but sometimes can fall flat or be a surprise hit at the box office..
dr venables preller, Warminster, UK