James Harding, Business Editor
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Is it time for a new New Deal in the US? Bill Gross, the managing director of Pimco, the largest private investor in US treasury bonds, has asked President George W. Bush to heed the lessons of Franklin D. Roosevelt. He has called on Mr Bush to start “writing cheques” to bail out troubled US homeowners.
Mr Gross’s expectations of the housing slowdown in America are alarming, not just for Americans but for people everywhere whose economies rely on the appetites of the US consumer. He cites market forecasts of two million households defaulting on their mortgages before the current cycle is over. This would bring a 10 per cent drop in housing prices, which he describes as “an asset deflation in the US never seen since the Great Depression”.
Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, may yet cut rates in September. In fact, the Fed may cut rates twice before the year is out. But Mr Gross’s point is that this will encourage more of the speculative lending that has caused such problems already. Instead, he suggests, the White House needs to step in and revive the Reconstruction Finance Corporation, created by Roosevelt to pump cheap loans into the US economy in the 1930s. He asks: “Why is it possible to rescue corrupt S&L [savings and loan] buccaneers in the early 1990s and provide guidance to levered Wall Street investment bankers during the 1998 LTCM crisis, yet throw two million homeowners to the wolves in 2007?”
Mr Gross’s comments may not appeal to the President, but they will resonate with the American people. Whatever the duration of the market fallout, the credit crisis will have a lasting impact on politics in 2008.
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Might give the chattering classes pause to think about how to create wealth rather than sit around discussing by how much the price of their property got bid up by over inflated city bonuses. Funny really when you think a lot of those bonuses got "earned" by securitizing sub-prime debt into your pension fund and mine.
Enron management eat your heart out. You ain't seen nothin yet.
Nick, Clayton, CA, USA
Yeh right. Mr Bush should bailout all the greedy housing market speculators who borrowed huge amounts money to push up prices. And when he has bailed them out they can start doing it all over again, in the expectation of another bailout.
Anthony, New York, USA
Calls for a bailout are a fraud. The banks and investors that bought these worthless loans now want the US Government to back their losses. A bailout will not help distressed homeowners, it will hurt them. A Fannie Mae sponsored 75 year mortgage to help a pizza delivery driver with a $650,000 mortgage he has no hope of paying off will harm him. It will rip off taxpayers. Walking away is his best option and represents Armageddon for banks and investors. They can't get $750,000 out of a person who makes $30,000 a year, but they can get it out of the US Treasury.
This was fraud. Banks knew mortgage brokers were instructing borrowers to lie about income. They knew there was no purpose for a stated income loan but to lie to qualify a borrower for a bigger loan. The NY Times has a good article today about Countrywide Bank's fraud -- trying to put people into loans with higher rates and worse terms than they qualified for. Let's not let them do it. Visit www.stopthebailout.org.
Sean, San Francisco, California
Banks should surrender Equity to Freddie Mac in return for assistance and hedge funds should have their limited liability set aside by the courts
Tom, Leeds, England
The "classic central bank bail out" of LTCM was - in fact - a Federal Reserve _directed_ bail-out by a consortium of investment banks including Goldman Sachs. Unfortunately, nothing like that will occur this time, because the numbers involved are far, far too large. The ultimate corrective will be a long and painful global recession, and a depression in China that will precipate a political firestorm as millions of workers are thrown into the streets. Cheers to the free markets!
Fred, Albuquerque, USA
I think Mr. Gross has a point. The classic central bank bail out of LCTM probably helped to create conditions for hedge funds to believe sub-prime finance was a one way bet. The so called
"Bernanke PUT" is alive and keeping the Wall St. "spivs" in business.
I believe there is a disproportional number of blacks and hispanics in the two million households at risk in the US. Yet more trouble in store if they are thrown out of their homes and back into the ghettoes.
Bryan McGrath, Weston-s-Mare,
Yeh right. Mr Bush should bailout all the greedy housing market speculators who borrowed huge amounts money to push up prices. And when he has bailed them out they can start doing it all over again!
Anthony, New York, USA
Bush doesn't care. He sat by and watched New Orleans sink into the Gulf of Mexico, but all of a sudden he's going to be compassionate?. Unless there's some sort of oil contract he can exploit to the benefit of himself and his circle of friends, Bush is just going to just chill out at Martha's Vinyard. Like always.
Damien, Toronto,
Bill Gross has done very well for himself over the past 30 plus years but he is getting too big for his boots. A drop in house prices would help all those looking for a home to buy at a better price. For every seller there has to be a buyer.
Carlos Kleiber, London,