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Stuart Rose memorably dismissed concerns about the effects of a scorching summer on retailers’ sales last year by snapping that “weather is for wimps”. It is a phrase that has come back to haunt the Marks & Spencer chief executive as the high street sees its hopes of a bumper June washed away by the rain.
The Meadowhall shopping centre in Sheffield, Yorkshire’s temple to retailing, remains closed five days after the storms that ravaged the North of England this week.
Shops on the ground floor were under a foot of water and sewage, and managers are not hopeful of reopening the doors to the public before Monday.
Executives in the retailing sector admit privately that June has been as bad a month as they can remember, and it is the clothing stores that have borne the brunt of the poor conditions.
Sales in the past week by some chains are thought to have fallen 10 per cent below the levels seen last year, when the high street was bathed in sunshine and the World Cup kept shoppers in the UK.
There are whispers that even the Primark fashion chain, hitherto untouchable, is beginning to feel the chill.
The CBI believes that June may have been the worst month on record since November with clothing sales at their lowest for two years.
Hard-and-fast facts about the extent of the downturn will not come until Marks & Spencer reports its eagerly awaited first-quarter figures on July 10.
However, the City has already priced in bad news.
The FTSE General Retailers index has fallen nearly 14 per cent below its high point of the year on May 9 and is now trading at a discount to the FTSE all-share index.
Some of the biggest names on the high street have lost ground, with M&S dropping 14 per cent below the 730p seen on May 9. The shares closed yesterday at 628p.
Next has tumbled by nearly 18 per cent over the same period, Signet, the H Samuel owner, by 17.2 per cent, Kingfisher by 17 per cent and Debenhams by 13 per cent.
Sports Direct has dropped 14 per cent and the billionaire Mike Ashley’s group now trades at a 60 per cent discount to its 300p float price at the end of February. Panmure Gordon this week trimmed its earnings forecasts for Sports Direct again, by a further 8 per cent.
Traders are giving warning that there is little sign of an upturn in the short term, and say that if fears over higher interest rates continue, the big-ticket retailers such as DSG and Kesa may struggle for months to come.
The Bank of England is almost certain to push interest rates up to 5.75 per cent next Thursday and put an even bigger squeeze on wallets. Short-sterling markets are currently pricing in rates of 6.25 per cent next March.
However, despite the bearish sentiment, there are rays of light. Economists argue that next week’s interest rate rise could be the last, whatever the markets suggest. Sales figures from John Lewis reveal that furniture is one of its fastest-growing departments, indicating that consumers are not yet feeling the pinch.
There is also a growing argument that the share sell-off in the retailing sector has presented a buying opportunity for those brave enough to weather the storm until the skies begin to clear.
Critics suggest that the rain may mark the end of the honeymoon period for Stuart Rose at M&S, with clothing sales predicted to come in flat for the first quarter.
There are mounting concerns that Tesco and Sainsbury’s are stealing customers away from M&S’s food halls and that complacency may set in after the impressive recovery in the past three years.
However, M&S remains a solid buy. If anything, the price fall since the start of May has left the shares undervalued compared with the rest of the sector, at 14 to 15 times earnings for 2007.
Although Stuart Rose and his team have worked a minor miracle in turning the group around, there are still many areas for growth, not least in tightening up the ranges, improving margins on the clothing lines and perhaps pushing homewares through store catalogues.
And all the time that the property tycoon Robert Tchenguiz nibbles away at Sainsbury’s, it pushes up the potential value of the lucrative freehold portfolio on M&S’s books.
Value can also be found among the smaller, more defensive players, such as N Brown, the home shopping group for the larger lady. In May, the group reported like-for-like sales growth of 14 per cent for March and April. Online sales were up 47 per cent and the update sparked profit upgrades.
If anything, N Brown should have benefited from the rain, as shoppers stay at home and surf the net, and yet its shares are 13 per cent off their 350p high for the year in February.
Another resilient stock worth backing is Halfords, the car parts and bicycles retailer, which has fallen 5 per cent below the 408p high achieved earlier this month. The company reported like-for-like sales growth of 9 per cent for April and May and again is likely to prove resilient to a slowdown. It will also benefit from the boost that the Tour de France will give cycling when it starts in London next weekend.
And then there is Tesco. Food retailers have also suffered from the bearish sentiment affecting the rest of the high street, not least Britain’s biggest grocer. Its shares have fallen 10 per cent since a warning of tougher trading two weeks ago. Yet this is a business that reported like-for-like sales of 4.7 per cent for the first quarter, on tough comparables. They are figures any other retailer would die for in the current climate. Buy.
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