James Harding, Business Editor
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The warnings from regulators over the dangers of excessive debt applied to complex financial instruments are coming thick and fast. Much too late, alas, for some investors and banks.
Yesterday it was Mervyn King’s turn to tell MPs that high leverage mixed with opaque securities is a recipe for grief. The Bank of England Governor was making the telling point that markets which look reassuringly deep and liquid can turn out to be anything but the moment sentiment sours.
Investors in and customers of the US sub-prime loans market have learnt this the hard way. London-listed Caliber Global Investments, which invested in these instruments, threw in the towel yesterday after suffering nasty losses. This follows similar spurts of red ink at two Bear Stearns hedge funds and at Queen’s Walk Investment, another London hedge fund. In the trailer parks of the United States, fresh loans are now virtually impossible to come by. People with impaired credit histories or no track record at all have gone from borrowing feast to famine in the space of a few months.
The credit markets have been deeply unsettled by all this. The contrast with the last big financial market upset, the collapse last year of the US hedge fund Amaranth Advisors, could not be more extreme. That implosion was dramatic, bizarre, unique. For everyone but the actual investors, who lost $7 billion or so, it was also blessedly contained. There was no contagion, no panic.
The sub-prime morass is a different affair entirely. It is pervasive, creeping, slow-motion and crops up in unexpected places be it Caliber or Barclays Bank. The dicing up and securitisation of debt is good for spreading risk but poor for identifying where the risk ends up.
That curdles confidence. The appetite for risk is being blunted in unconnected corners of the financial markets. Bond issues from companies as diverse as Kia Motors, Arcelor Mittal and US Foodservice have all been postponed in recent days. According to one estimate, losses on sub-prime could be as high as $75 billion. This feels like an epic with more chapters to come.
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Here in sunny Florida we've seen the worst of the sub prime mess.I have a neighbor whom has refinanced 4 times in the past 2 years. Taking out money for lavish vacations, limos, and most importantly he used the money pay off massive credit card debt.
Originally, my neighbor paid less for his house than I did for mine of roughly the same size and condition. Now, he owes twice as much. He confided to me that he had just refi'd again, and when he got his first mortgage payment coupon, he couldn't believe how much it was. I've heard his story echod time and time again, by my friends and coworkers. It is my opinion that americans have lost their good sense when it comes to personal finances. America is hooked on debt ! My neighborhood has at least 3 houses on every street either for sale, to let, or in some stage of foreclosure.What will happen when the next recession rolls around ?
Rusty Watrous, Tarpon Springs, USA,Florida
Bring it on !! "Adjust the adjustables" (July...Sept...Nov....2008....tick, tick, tick) - we'll see how much money the Institutions desire to set aside (Bear / Goldman / etc) to "eat the paper" and prevent a fire sale ....."mark-to-myth", as Buffett likes to say, may go poof, as "the rot paper" gets a real valuation.
Someone has to bite the bullet, to keep the "rot paper" from the open light of day, causing a panic ( they want to / need to maintain the "myth")... if they wanna hide it / eat it...be my guest.
Eric M, San Diego, USA / CA