Two unpredictable forces of nature stand between Blacks Leisure and a certain future: one is the British weather; and the other is Mike Ashley, the mercurial entrepreneur behind Sports Direct.

Our uncertain weather has been blamed for many of Blacks woes in the past year. More unseasonal hot or cold spells will bring trouble for the retailer, which depends on our appetite for the outdoors for its profits. But while analysts can only guess at future cold fronts, they will be scrutinising Mr Ashley’s every move.

With a 29.4 per cent stake, the tycoon is the biggest shareholder in the outdoorwear and camping retailer and has made no secret of his desire to extend his stable of brands beyond sportswear labels.

Analysts expect Mr Ashley to consider seriously an offer for Blacks by the autumn, when a six-month ban imposed by the Takeover Panel expires.

They argue that a bid for Blacks would give Mr Ashley a powerful position in the market for camping and outdoor equipment through the Milletts and Blacks fascias, while Freespirit would award him prominance in boardwear, which is the fastest-growing segment in the sector.

Additionally, analysts suggest, such a move would create a readymade distribution network for Karrimor, his outdoor clothing brand, through the 453-strong Blacks Leisure store portfolio.

However, a bid might come at a price. Although the share price now languishes at 266½p, from the heights of 600p it touched just over a year ago, investors might hold out for the 400p the entrepreneur has previously paid for shares in the retailer.

Mr Ashley would also need to secure approval for a deal from shareholders in Sports Direct, who have been unnerved by his acquisition of shares in Newcastle United and Adidas. Industry sources are confident that Blacks would benefit from improved management if it was held within the Sports Direct group. One thing is sure. Mr Ashley is unlikely to take a hike.

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