I sold up a couple of weeks ago mainly because I believe that shares are generally grossly overvalued againt the general background.

In the UK in particular the fundamentals are getting badly out of kilter with a rapidly increasing balance of trade deficit and overblown lending levels particularly in relation to corporate private equity deals.

I'm also very concerned about the banks overstretching themselves and this latest RBS move to buy ABN is something I find deeply worrying in terms of the ability of a single bank to handle such a large level of expansion and the resultant debt.

Dick, Aberdeenshire,

This article is total nonsense. The US economy is on the brink of recession.

John, London, UK

You failed to answer your second question. What about other assets, especially London property, which is not valued in $US?

Gary Pasley, London,

But Math does not drive the mkt. Greed and fear are always at the wheel. The article so reminds me of the math offered before the DOT COM bubble went BANG! Keep your ear plugs handy.

Milton V, Ealing, , London UK

Good advice - time to sell up! One is reminded of Rothchild's comment on why he was a successful investor.

Mike, Sydney, Australia

Since when could the herds spell "affect"?
If maths had effected the herd mentality, cows would be stockmarket geniuses.

Freya, London,

there will be a collapse , and it will start in 10 months time.

rich, spain, spain

One of the key signs of a bubble about to burst is an avalanche of learned articles about how the bubble isn't about to burst.

MH, London, UK

So glad, I just love expert predictions and opinions because inevitably after the "Flood, Fire, Stock Market Crash or unexpected Hurricane in SE England", they are followed by the explanations of just why it was unexpectedly different, this time !

John Haynes, Burnham on Sea, UK

there is a credit bubble, and companies are becoming increasingly leveraged just as the economy is about to hit a housing led downturn. i wouldn't be so confident that share prices will continue their rapid ascent.

G, London,

since when did maths effect herd mentaliity ?

john doe, hull, uk

Yeah but the reality is, that it still exists, as in all bubbles (and this is one) burst, and this is by ALL accounts the biggest! When it happens & nobody can predict that, maybe another year or two who know's, but I predict with certainty it will. So I hold gold, and as my farther used to say 'you either get out early or too late'!

Ben Cowell, Moreton in Marsh,

"But once we take account of the rise of sterling against the dollar, it turns out that British share prices have outperformed American investments by almost 30 per cent. "

This is only true if UK listed share prices are converted to dollars at the start and end of the period, which would be appropriate for US investors in UK stocks.

Anyone investing in foreign equities is exposed to the effect of currency fluctuations on their returns, but I don't think this should be factored in when stating the performance of a particular stock market over time which is most fairly expressed in the local currency.

Tony Dunlop, Mid Devon, UK

"But once we take account of the rise of sterling against the dollar, it turns out that British share prices have outperformed American investments by almost 30 per cent. "

This is only true if UK listed share prices are converted to dollars at the start and end of the period, which would be appropriate for US investors in UK stocks.

Anyone investing in foreign equities is exposed to the effect of currency fluctuations on their returns, but I don't think this should be factored in when stating the performance of a particular stock market over time which is most fairly expressed in the local currency.

Tony Dunlop, Mid Devon, UK

I disagree that stocks markets are some distance from a crash.
Part of the rise in global stock markets is due to cheap money: a global glut of liquidity. Japan shares some of the blame for this liquidity through the yen carry trade. At some point the Bank of Japan will (hopefully this August ) raise interest rates from 0.5% to 1%. The yen will appreciate. As japanese interest rates are raised, yen carry traders will sell overseas assets to repay yen denominated loans. This will cause overseas markets to stumble. Further as the sale proceeds are repatriated to pay yen loans, this will cause the yen to appreciate even more. This in turn will have a domino effect. As the yen gets even stronger, more yen carry traders will dump overseas assets; looking to lock in profits and quickly repay yen loans. This will cause financial meltdown in global stockmarkets. Other investors will follow yen carry traders and also dump stocks - triggering a flight to quality assets.

John Fernandez, London, UK

I disagree that stocks markets are some distance from a crash.
Part of the rise in global stock markets is due to cheap money: a global glut of liquidity. Japan shares some of the blame for this liquidity through the yen carry trade. At some point the Bank of Japan will (hopefully this August ) raise interest rates from 0.5% to 1%. The yen will appreciate. As japanese interest rates are raised, yen carry traders will sell overseas assets to repay yen denominated loans. This will cause overseas markets to stumble. Further as the sale proceeds are repatriated to pay yen loans, this will cause the yen to appreciate even more. This in turn will have a domino effect. As the yen gets even stronger, more yen carry traders will dump overseas assets; looking to lock in profits and quickly repay yen loans. This will cause financial meltdown in global stockmarkets. Other investors will follow yen carry traders and also dump stocks - triggering a flight to quality assets.

John Fernandez, London, UK

When you start reading articles like this it is generally a good idea to sell as something unexpected appears and confounds the mathematical theories.

Simon , Chatham, Kent

I disagree that stocks markets are some distance from a crash.
Part of the rise in global stock markets is due to cheap money: a global glut of liquidity. Japan shares some of the blame for this liquidity through the yen carry trade. At some point the Bank of Japan will (hopefully this August ) raise interest rates from 0.5% to 1%. The yen will appreciate. As japanese interest rates are raised, yen carry traders will sell overseas assets to repay yen denominated loans. This will cause overseas markets to stumble. Further as the sale proceeds are repatriated to pay yen loans, this will cause the yen to appreciate even more. This in turn will have a domino effect. As the yen gets even stronger, more yen carry traders will dump overseas assets; looking to lock in profits and quickly repay yen loans. This will cause financial meltdown in global stockmarkets. Other investors will follow yen carry traders and also dump stocks - triggering a flight to quality assets.

John Fernandez, London, UK