James Harding, Business Editor
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One of the unplanned but most intractable legacies of the Blair decade is the distortion of any normal or sustainable relation between house prices and people’s incomes. If that link is not already broken it is certainly stretched to the limit.
The rate of price inflation may be slowing, just, but remains obstinately high.
The question that always accompanies fresh data showing a fast-growing housing market is: are we headed for a crash? The short answer, at present, is no.
Yesterday’s quarter-point rise in rates will not make much difference and was not intended to. Few of the most vulnerable borrowers pay higher mortgage interest immediately just because the Bank’s rate has gone up.
A run of four rate rises must, however, put more pressure on new buyers. Allowing for high prices and higher interest rates, they are likely to have to pay a fifth more interest each month than a year ago.
But in London, which is again driving the price increases, interest rates have the least effect because far more properties are bought with bonuses or foreign money.
The squeeze on incomes must eventually tell. Next month’s new selling regulations may cool the market a little more. But there will not be a price crash unless there is a much sharper rise in unemployment than currently looks likely.
Nonetheless, there will be a price to pay for the continuing rise in house prices. As existing borrowers see their budgets stretched, consumer spending and economic growth will suffer, perhaps at just the wrong time. And more people will be excluded from decent housing.
This will not only raise shrill demands for regulation and subsidy. It has a social cost for those excluded from the housing market.
First-time buyers and lenders are resorting to evermore bizarre and unwise tactics to get a foot on to the bottom of the property ladder. Buy-to-let investors are pushing up the price of flats and houses, making it harder and harder for young people to buy a home.
So long as house price inflation outpaces growth in ordinary people’s incomes, the drive to buy at almost any financial or personal cost will continue. General inflation was only beaten when people became convinced that policy would keep price increases low and relatively stable.
At root, the problem is a chronic shortage of housing in key areas. There is a need for many more homes in London and other cities.
Homeowners may not want this to happen, hoping instead to be bailed out by inflation. But the price we pay for the rising housing market is more than just economic.
It’s the letter but not the spirit
In cutting loose Lord Browne of Madingley, Goldman Sachs has passed up the chance to show leadership, loyalty and a little humanity.
To be fair, the world’s premier investment bank faced a vexing decision. Since 1999, Lord Browne has been a member of the bank’s board and has also served as chairman of the audit committee as well as a member of the corporate governance committee. His role at Goldman Sachs has not simply been to provide strategic advice but to uphold the integrity of the firm.
Lord Browne has compromised his own integrity in the most sorry circumstances, by misleading a court to keep from the press the details of a relationship with a former gay lover. When the news of his lie emerged last week, Lord Browne resigned as chief executive of BP. That same day, Martin Halusa at Apax showed his mettle by giving an instinctive and unequivocal endorsement to Lord Browne, who is joining the private equity firm this summer. (Private equity, you see, is capable of compassion.)
For nine days, Goldman deliberated and dithered. Eventually it concluded that the institution was more important than the individual. It judged that it could not hope to insist on honesty from its staff while retaining a director who lied to a court. And it fretted that pious US regulators would object to Lord Browne’s continued presence on the board.
Goldman’s position is sensible but cowardly.
Lord Browne’s lie was a pathetic fib to cover up a misplaced secret. In this case, his integrity as a businessman has never been in doubt.
The clients of Goldman Sachs will wonder how much loyalty the bank will show them if they ever find themselves in a spot of difficulty. It is also, surely, the first time that Goldman Sachs policy has been dictated by the sordid agenda of the Daily Mail. Instead of standing by a distinguished businessman and showing compassion for a man in a moment of frailty, Goldman Sachs has chosen to be a stickler for the rules.
Credit risk
The EBRD was a great idea whose time is now over. Over the years, it has been hugely successful, fulfilling its mandate by venturing into deeply sub-prime territory from the Baltic to the Black Sea. It gave credit boldly where no loan officer had been before and it has paid off. The bank made a profit of $2.4 billion last year. The “transition” countries of Eastern Europe are now mainly EU members, solvent and acceptable territory for commercial bankers requiring five-star hotels and a decent lunch. The question for EBRD is: what now?
One option is expansion across Central Asia to the east and into the Middle East to the south. It could do both but could easily come unstuck. Its early stamping ground was in states committed to a “transition” to free political expression. But how is it to support “transition” in states where there is no commitment to democracy?
Commercial bankers love to have a soft lender on board in “difficult” countries, lending credibility and oversight to risky projects. Without clear guidelines and political direction, the EBRD could find itself endorsing dubious regimes for the benefit of commercial bankers. It is not what the taxpayers who fund the EBRD are looking for.

George Osborne is right to want to scrap stamp duty on shares. It’s a drag on savings and punishes thrift. It also puts conventional long-term share buyers at a disadvantage to speculators who dodge it by using fancy derivatives. But before the Shadow Chancellor gathers up plaudits from a grateful City, he needs to say whose feathers he will be plucking instead to make up for the annual £3.7 billion forgone.
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Now lets think...
1. Unemployment - remains very stubbornly high in view of the fact that there has been a 'job creation scheme' in Local and Central Government - so no miracle economy there - only a Keynesian approach with the inflationary problems thta have always ensued.
2. So who apart from them are buying the properties?
3. I in common with many small businesses as a result cannot find proper cheap business premises (forget the cooing over the housing market for a minute).
4. I cannot expand. I cannot take on more employees.
5. The Local (and Central ) Government can expand.
6. To increase public expenditure has always been inflationary.
7. Inflation cannot be allowed to increase.
8. If inflation increases it will lead to higher interest rates.
9. Higher interest rates lead to .....
MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMeltdown.
Pete Balchin , Bristol, uk
As an American, this talk that the government should somehow encourage a price decline in housing seems preposterous. Such intervention is likely to create further imbalances and dislocations.
Why can't you just let the market decide? Price changes that are driven by supply and demand (not just for housing but also for money) will allocate scarce resources to their highest and best use. If that means that certain people can't afford to live in London but need to move to outlying cities, so be it - they are probably not adding as much to the economy of London as the next person who can afford to live there. This is the secret of the American economic strength and the weakness of socialistic systems.
Allen, Los Angeles, USA / CA
The distortions which have built in the housing market have accrued gradually, and may not have been addressed because doing nothing seems less painful than correction.
Although some rents may seem cheap in relation to current inflated house prices, historically they were far cheaper under the distortion of the various rent control regimes which were operational until about twenty years ago. Many rents are now paid from Housing Benefit, and current rent levels might be unaffordable in many cases from income alone.
So, we have supply of new builds limited by planning constraints, shortage as a result of buy-to-let investment, first time buyers limited by insufficient income, and continuing house price inflation helped by equity freed in trading up or down by existing house owners. Realised (or borrowed) equity increase is also fuelling economic activity. We are now in a world where free markets are the norm.
Markets sort problems of distortion. The process can be painful.
dr venables preller, Warminster, UK
House Price rises over inflation only seemed to start when lenders with too much money available allocate on the premise that whatever the valuation it would be higher in the future and irresponcible lending was not punished.
I have always thought that Gordon Brown made a major mistake in not ensuring that house price inflation did not get away from him by punishing irresponcible lending.
3.5 times annual income seems a sustainable level historically.
If in the event of repossession, irresponcible lending was shown i.e. more than 3.5 times anual income then the lender would not be able to recover any deficit from the borrower, this problem would not arise.
Simple, but the lenders would oppose this because they know this would be effective.
M Sheridan, Oldham, UK
House prices are being artificially inflated (as the article suggests) by buy-to-let investors. But not all of these are property magnates. The majority are looking for ways to ensure a comfortable retirement who have recognised that the pension system is fundamentally broken (caused in part by Mr Brown).
Using the stick on these people is not a holistic answer. There has to be a carrot aswell. Maybe it's time for government to take the lead in alternative financial products (as per PEPs, ISAs) and deliberately incentivise alternative forms of investment which are not as prescriptive as the current personal pension/compulsory annuity purchase schemes.
Richard, London, UK
If it was a simple problem of supply and demand exacerbated by immigrants, as many here suggest, rents would have also rocketed.
In many parts of the UK, renting is cheaper than buying.
Claire Dunbar, Edinburgh, UK
"It is supply and demand. So long as there are more people than houses the trend will continue. The only way to cure the problem is to reduce and control the levels of population."
Actually, that is an often touted but misguided claim. If supply were so low, rentals would be a lot higher (at the very least at parity with mortgage repayments). My rent works out to be roughly half the interest portion of what the current owner paid for the house, assuming he took out a full mortgage of £298 000.
Chantel, UK,
A point missed by some of the contributors is that if the house price bubble is due largely to a lack of supply, why have rents not increased in line with house prices? This appears to suggest that demand for houses as a place to live has not substantially increased, whereas demand for houses as a financial instrument (driven by cheap credit, expecation and a compliant mass-media) has increased exponentially.
There is a significant correlation between periods of rapid money supply growth and periods in which the rich get richer at everyone eles's expense. The current period is somewhat different in that mass participation has created the illusion that everyone is better off because house prices have risen. The rapid credit growth that has fuelled it has been allowed to happen under a "Labour" government.
Steve, St Neots, UK
With Blair gone is it safe to return to the UK? or should I remain in the French countryide,10 minutes from the golf club and five from the village with zero crime.Plus superb medical facilities,traditional village schooling,stable house prices,wine at 2 euros a bottle(good wine)and atlantic oysters at 8 euros a kilo! Or is there something to look forward to with Mr Brown on the horizon?
Alan Beresford, Poitiers, France
If a housing shortage was the problem, then rents would have risen as fast as house prices since tenants also form part of the demand function for property. It also doesn't explain how equally crowded places like Tokyo or Hong Kong managed to have a crushing house price correction in the 1990s.
And why does Mr Harding assume that unemployment has to rise for prices to correct? This is not based on anything other than hope - the US is correctly in the midst of a correction in the context of very low unemployment.
Brett A, New York, USA
The reason that housing prices are so inflated in London and the South East is the tax concession for foreign domiciled residents. In the past the influx of wealthy paying no tax was considered desirable because of the amount spent in the UK. We are now seeing the social cost of this. It is not just the superrich. Even those of moderate wealth can live in the UK and escape the punitive taxes of say France or Germany and they obviously find it worthwhile to pay inflated prices for UK property. It is time to end this anomaly and I suspect Gordon Brown thinks likewise.
Colin Grant, Westmount, Quebec, Canada
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