Irwin Stelzer
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AS they struggle to cope with voters’ new concerns about global warming, the world’s politicians seem to be seeking one of those “cunning plans” that Baldrick was always ready to offer Blackadder. Tony Blair and Angela Merkel are competing for the antiglobal warming leadership of Europe. David Cameron is erecting a wind turbine on his house and targeting air travel, with people who fly most often (wealth-generating businessmen) to be taxed at the highest rate. California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has converted one of his Hummers to hydrogen and another to biofuel. And George Bush is lavishing billions of taxpayers’ money on America’s already-cossetted farmers to get them to grow more corn.
Only Gordon Brown seems to have kept his head. The chancellor has finally recognised that his climate-change levy is too blunt an instrument, and shaped some of his colleagues’ loonier proposals into something that just might not disrupt the British economy or create an even bigger black hole in the Treasury’s finances. Emphasise the “just might”, as no one has yet seriously costed the “free insulation”, changes in appliances, and new light bulbs that are parts of Labour’s plan to cope with global warming and, more importantly, fend off Cameron and his green supporters.
All these plans have two features in common: rationing and new costs. Both Tory and Labour green campaigners favour issuing each of us a certain number of carbon credits, modelled on the ration books of the second world war. This rationing of carbon emissions means rationing energy, at least until new, unsubsidised technologies emerge, and will involve enforced used of fluorescent light bulbs, or switches on television sets, or an individual allocation of carbon credits to curtail travel. Such rationing apparently appeals to Old Labour types. “The current climate crisis gives the Labour party — never comfortable with the politics of postwar affluence — the opportunity to return to the politics of austerity,” writes Professor Mark Roodhouse of the University of York in support of applying to climate change “the Blitz spirit . . . this time to avert catastrophic climate change rather than Nazi invasion”.
The second feature of all proposals is that they cost money — to be paid by consumers, taxpayers and businesses. Some green politicians want to tax energy use, or at least those uses they have decided are not as important as other uses — aeroplanes spring to politicians’ minds as they jet around the world to conferences aimed at saving the planet. Others want to cap the carbon emissions of various industries, imposing costs that will be reflected either in higher prices or, if the rest of the world doesn’t go along, in jobs lost to international rivals.
Consider the simple matter of incandescent light bulbs, which the EU wants switched off by 2009. The European Lamp Companies Federation is ecstatic. Its president hailed the move: “These [energy-efficient] bulbs have been on the market for 15 years. Price has been a factor. If the EU sets minimum energy-effi-ciency standards, people will have to buy them.” No surprise that the industry is delighted to have government force people to buy a product they don’t want, at prices they consider too high.
All of these costs might be worth bearing if the threat is as immediate and overwhelming as the Al Gore-Sir Nicholas Stern faction believes. But it is neither: Gore guesses that sea levels will rise 20ft, and soon, while scientists estimate closer to 20in, and later. And the flaws in the Stern report have been pointed out by academics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology and elsewhere, including many who do not oppose emissions-reducing policies.
So sensible policymakers will have to ignore the direst forecasters. And the noisiest. Hollywood stars such as Pierce Brosnan and Martin Sheen, leaders in the fight against global warming, are also leading the campaign against an offshore terminal that would allow California to import clean liquefied natural gas from Australia. And powerful American promoters of the virtues of ethanol are fighting to retain the 54-cent-per-gallon tariff that keeps cheaper ethanol from entering US markets.
Fortunately, lurking in the flurry of political activity are some sensible ideas. It does make sense to put a price on carbon, so that the users of energy bear the costs they are imposing on society. It does make sense to shift the tax burden from growth-stifling income taxes to pollution-creating activities. It does make sense to allow polluters to trade carbon credits internationally so that the cost of reducing emissions can be minimised. It does make sense to consider the costs of any emission-reducing plans. It does make sense to consider the impact of any programme on economic growth and jobs — some pollution is worth bearing if it is more than offset by the wealth it creates.
Finally, it does make sense to consider the unintended consequences of any legislation. American policymakers’ infatuation with corn as a replacement for crude oil has driven corn prices so high that poor Mexicans can’t afford tortillas, and created such inflated incentives to plant more corn that forests are being chopped down to make space for it, and other acreage is being shifted from barley to biofuels, driving up the cost of beer. The new light bulbs will make reading more difficult and drive up demand for specs, and the cosmetics industry is said to be reformulating foundation makeups so that feminine beauty will be undimmed by the strange hue emitted by the new bulbs.
There are more such consequences, but you get the idea: think hard before jumping on the green bandwagon. There is no free ride.
Irwin Stelzer is a business adviser and director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute
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Re Mexican Tortillas, The law of unintended consequences
rides again. I do not believe there is one politician that thinks? past the first stage Carbon tax-just plain silly. The Hollywood elites and St Al Gore the Green..They can really teach us about using less energy 20,000 sq ft houses, private jets etc.. I expect they will be teaching us morals next.!!
Desmond Taylor, Houston, USA Texas
It only makes sense if it applies to everyone the world over, i.e., the US, China, and India, or put more succinctly the largest users of carbon.
richard dows, louth, england
All rubbish
It is the most amazing excuse dreamt up to tax us even further without having any effects whatsoever on the end of the planet. The earth will end, as all solar systems do. So what?, is Blair that incredible that he can make this system go on for ever?
Come off it. I suppose these politicians could have saved the dinanosaurs!
ian, leicester, UK
The greatest dangers are;- firstly, the oxygen burnt, 4 tons for each ton of Fuel burnt, plus, 1.25 Tons of Water produced for each tonn burnt! The human needs this oxygen, 82% for the Brain, so we have Altshiemers, Asthma, Leukemia, in fact, so many other illnesses. Full details not possible in this space. The excess water produced is also responsible for extra flooding plus ice berg melting. These effect are with all burning of Hydrocarbons, & other fuels burnt. A fuller sheet of information, by e-mail if required? Reg Moores (Scientist)
Reg Moores, Brighton, England
I see the whole green issue as far more sinister then mere tree-hugging and recycling your newspapers.
We have reached the technological stage where the level of control over individuals which was only dreamt of by totalitarian regimes e.g. Stalinist Russia but better represented by Orwells 1984 is now being implemented bit by bit - and we are being told it is necessary because it will save the planet. Do we really want a monstrous all pervasive face-less bureaucracy that rides roughshod over our way of life? Sceptics are derided as blasphemers and any attempt at proper scientific debate is met with derision. The state has expanded enough. It continues to expand. These people gave us the dome, the olympic budget, the pensions crisis etc. now they want to alter the planets thermostat. Save the planet they say what for if we cant travel to see it?
Pravin, uk,
Flourescent ilght bulbs. Some years ago in the United States an experiment was made of the effect of different types of lighting on the ability of school children to concentrate on lessons and actually learn what they were being taught. Natural daylight in a room with many windows had the best effect. Incandescent lighting did not have negative effect. However a windowless school room with only flourescent lighting led to lack of concentration, irritation and restlessness and headaches as well as negatively affecting learning. How typically foolish and harmful of the EU to pass a law prohibiting incandescent light bulbs and forcing the use of flourescent bulbs. The UK should opt out of this law on the basis that it creates a proven health hazard.
This hysteria about the human cause of global warming needs to be countered and I hope The Times will take the leadership of not accepting but questioning this unproven, computer-modelling THEORY which is not fact but speculation.
S Jackson-Mann, Tunbridge Wells,
Global warming periods have occurred in the past.
These happened without large co2 emmissions from mankind.
In attempting to arrest the latest warming trend mankind is once again meddling with nature.
Will we ever learn?
Dennis, Johannesburg, South Africa
So we're going to tax everyone for breathing, keeping animals, having houses, are we? What about candles and open fires - they produce lots of "carbon". How are going to tax the oceans and volcanoes, which produce far more "carbon" (than all human activity ever taken. Carbon dioxide is NOT a pollutant, it is a necessary part of all life. By all means tax a declining resource, but let's stop this rubbish about carbon being a pollutant. Life on earth has survived much higher levels of atmospheric CO2 (which is really what the argument is about) than even the predicted levels in "worst case" scenarios.
Jeremy Wickins, Sheffield, UK
German E.ON utility operates more wind energy than exists in the United States. Wind load factor is such that wind requires 90% "Spinning" reserve. Germany is planning 48 GWe wind energy by y-2020 as it abandonds its atomic plants. E.ON report implies 50 GWe wind energy will only replace 2 GWe conventional power. Replacing 30 GWe nuclear [05], with 48 GWe wind by 2020 will make German nameplate generation less than peak load.
German E.ON report implies that wind energy is practically useless. E.ON report implies total wind energy cost is 22.5 cents/kWh. 2004 German wind energy utilization is 18 percent. CAL ISO 2002 data gives 22 per cent utilizaton of 1.8 GWe CA namplate wind capability. Wind utilization below 20 per cent produces no net energy because simple-cyle backup power is less efficient than CCGT base load power.
WIllaim Ernest Schenewerk, Los Angeles, California
Can I say that I don't know what's happening with global warming? I don't know if man is causing it or not - I'm not that well-educated.
However, I do recognise a scam when I see one and each party's response to global warming is a scam. Bankrupt imaginations can do no better than 'tax it' or 'ration it' and our nation deserves better.
Let me plead with everyone who has a vote in the UK: Regardless of your views on global warming, when the next election comes please do not vote for any politician whose only 'policy on global warming' is to take more money out of your pocket - as it will only be used to line theirs.
John Blackley, Austin, TX, USA
It does not make sense to trade carbon credits unless everyone is signed up to the limits. If some are exempt it becomes third world aid that taxpayers would refuse to sign up to unless third world corruption is addressed. At the moment it is aid from rich countries' poor to poor countries' rich. Green policies are not a free ride they are a first class ticket supplement on a train that only has second class service.
Energy already costs enough to hurt but has not had time for this to result in action as replacing capital goods before their expiry date costs even more and in reality has a higher carbon cost.
David Cage, Highworth, Uk
One shortcoming of the 'compact flourescents', no mention is made of, is mercury vapour leakage as ALL flourescents contain a bit of the metal to create the plasma within. With use/abuse seals CAN go.
Of lessor concern is the low-level radiation from the flourescent pigment coating the interior of the glass - the actual emitter of the light we see and the fragility OF that glass.
The structural integrety of the coiled glass envelope is also much lower than that of the spherical 'bulb'.
Were it not for the higher current requirements (and perceived carbon burden) - incandescents (Edison's brainchild) main disadvantage to LEDs is their fragility. (ouch!)
LED 'bulbs' offer MUCH greater life-span at drastically lower current but need more efficient production techniques to become competative. Perhaps NESTA could fund R&D to that end?
Larry, Middletown, USA/NY
Alberta is the worst province for pollution in Canada. Alberta till recently had the least literate Premier in Canada. The Prime Minister of Canada is sleeping on the Alberta pollution file. The Province is failing to collect the royalties it needs not only to counter pollution but also to protect infrastructure against terrorism. As a system, it is the worst possible, given that PM Harper is openly challenging terrorists. How can politics and medialand be fantasy worlds? It could not have anything to do with education.
Clayton Burns, Vancouver, Canada
Carbon emission is the latest 'fad' - 30 years ago it was acid rain and how that would destroy the planet.
These green meanies are just like the sandwich board men of years ago - prophesying "the end of the world is nigh".
Kit, Leeds, England
We are on a carbon life form planet.. The Earth itself produces huge amoints of the stuff. When WE assume room temparature, all our carbon goes back into the world. Sorry, Liberals, this is not one of your zero sum theories.. These is just another tax with a' moral' underpining. Lastly, anything with St Al Gore of Green involved, you know it is sham. Sorry if that is 'An Inconvienient Truth"\'.!!
Desmond Taylor, Houston, USA Texas
SO gunor Grabass has converted one of his TWO hummers to biofuel? lets hope it can run on Bull-plop as then it will have an infinite fuel supply. lets hope those bulb makers can do a better job as I have replaced all my old bulbs with new ones. Now I can hardly see to drink my vastly overpriced beer (damm you ethanol makers!).
get tough on the causes of carbon, and hurry up and invent room temp fusion, I cant wait much longer !
Elwin parsley, london , UK
Nature has her own system for converting carbon dioxide into oxygen - the tropical rain forests. If we continue logging them to extinction, then no amount of domestic regulations about carbon emissions will give us the air we need to breathe. Let's get our priorities right.
Edmund Burke, Kingston upon Thames, England
The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere correlates strongly with the Earth's temperature
Scientific data clearly shows that the CO2 concentration change lags the Earth's temperature change by about 800 years.
Yes, CO2 concentration LAGS temperature change. Not the other way around.
There is absolutely zero scientific evidence that an increase in CO2 concentration will have any significant effect on the Earth's temperature.
You might step outside one day and observe the big glowing thing in the sky that determines the Earth's temperature.
Gary, Huntsville, AL
Has anyone actually considerd the full research into climate change and so called global warming? Its time for an honest and open debate as the research does not seem to support the populist claims that carbon dioxide and so called 'man made' global warming are a reality; what we are experiencing is a shift in solar activity and it has been found that carbon dioxide levels increase as a result of temperature rises (and not vice versa as we are led to believe). If this is true then what is the point on taxing carbon emissions and how can such a tax be justified? Its time scientists and experts in the field stood up and gave the majority of people the true facts rather than the governments cynical arguments to justify taxing us more
Craig Bowley, Leicester, England
I just replaced two 7 watt night lights with two l.e.d. night lights using 3/10's of a watt each.In the vast scheme of things this isn't earth shaking,but it does save a considerable amount of energy over the projected life span of the l.e.d.'s,not to mention the large number of bulbs that won't need to be purchased.
10 years ago I switched all the bulbs in my house to compact fluorescents.I have just had to replace two of the origional bulbs.The price has dropped from about $10 each to six for $10.These bulbs save approximately 470 kilowatts each over their life span.Again not earth shaking,but if a whole country makes these two adjustments it will be noticed.
RON, toronto,
Well climate change policies are excellent for greedy politicians - look at all the money that can be made from emissions trading with other countries. Also, you can wack on some tax onto the senseless and wasteful citizens who burn up all that carbon (with so many other alternatives open to them!). A bonanza for the likes of Mr Brown. The nice thing about climate change policies is that politicians need to spend little to bring it about - just tax us into submission. It's a bit like crime - Tony Blair is reputed to have said in an address to a local community group: "We have given you everything to make your communties safer - more police, tougher sentencing, more laws. We have done our bit, it is up to you now, just don't do it. Don't do crime"! The man's a genius - got to give it to him!
G Balls Warmming, Wetherill,