Davos serves, among other things, as the equivalent to a New Year’s Eve gathering for the world’s plutocrats. It is an annual stock-taking, accompanied by a raft of worthy resolutions. And while it is tempting to point out how so many fruitful ideas, like so many New Year’s resolutions, fall on stony ground, it is more interesting to observe how profoundly the preoccupations of the world’s business and political leaders have changed.
Last year, the headlines were made by Bono and a host of businessman launching Product Red, a marketing drive intended to funnel money to Africa. Twelve months later, there is growing concern about Red — that is, Chinese — money in Africa. Rather than being viewed as a charity case, Africa is suddenly seen as the stage for a new scramble for resources. China’s trade with Africa has tripled over the past three years. Beijing hosted a conference in November for all but a few of Africa’s heads of state. Most significantly, the People’s Republic has struck up natural resources deals with countries from Zimbabwe to Kenya.
Twelve months ago, business stood in awe of private equity. That has not diminished, but it is now mixed with increasing suspicion. There may well be a vast deal in the offing, but isn’t there also hubris? There is concern that too much money has been raised, resulting in so much liquidity chasing a limited number of deals. Either fees and returns will be squeezed or failure rates will rise.
Disruptive technologies, nothing new in themselves, seem to be gathering pace. The conventional wisdom that the IT industry works on an 18-month cycle seems increasingly out of date. Avi Shechter, whose business Fring is promising to make VOIP telephony available over 3G wireless networks, came to Davos yesterday to herald a future of cheap, flat-rate worldwide calls. While Second Life was the new, new thing a year ago, the idea of 2-D avatars is already being eclipsed. Within a couple of months, haptic interface holds out the possibility of physical sensory experiences in an invented, online universe.
Geopolitically, the most meaningful change seems, at first sight, to be the convergence of US and European attitudes to the war in Iraq. One of the unlikely consequences of the chastening experience of American-led forces is that the transatlantic rift has narrowed. Now, both continents stand more keenly aware of the limitations of their power.
But, perhaps the most striking feature of this year’s Alpine retreat for globalisation’s winners, is the angst: the world’s business leaders have gathered at a moment of unprecedented world prosperity but in a mood of disquiet about the perceived legitimacy of global capitalism. Steve Forbes, the owner of Forbes magazine, described the mood in America today as “sour”. Why? Certainly, there is an enduring post-9/11 sense of insecurity. But, more significant, he said, is the sense that the benefits of globalisation are increasingly uneven. More than that, free markets and modern technologies are not just threatening blue-collar jobs in America, but suddenly the work of white-collar, upper middle-class professionals is heading offshore. All this at a time that the average pay of the chief executive of a Dow Jones 500 company has risen to $10.9 million. The sense of injustice occasionally spikes: Mr Forbes points to the soaring sentences for white-collar criminals, higher now than at any time in US history.
In fact, the public sourness helps make sense of the growing British bewilderment at the way in which US authorities are pursuing alleged infractions by UK companies and executives. The pursuit of white-collar criminals is not a reflection of the federal authorities’ attitudes to British businesses, nor even the supremacy of US law. If anything, it is an indirect response to an indiscriminate US domestic discontent with business.
Even as economists forecast global growth at above or around 4 per cent this year, the mood is anxious. There is acute concern about growing inequalities, nuclear proliferation, Islam versus the West, climate change and the sense, even among globalisation’s victors, that they are losing the argument with their most important constituency: the middle classes at home. Amid the rosy forecasts, it sometimes feels like five minutes to midnight.
More bad news for Tate & Lyle. On Tuesday, the British sugar manufacturer saw 15 per cent wiped off its share price when it reported that sales of Splenda, its sweetener, had fallen below its own expectations. But, clearly, Tate & Lyle's expectations were out of sync with the fizzy drinks busness. A senior executive at a very big US soda pop company said it had bought Splenda as predicted. The company had some reservations about Splenda, he explained, because it has a “ slight aftertaste”. It was only ever intended as a “niche product”. Purchases of Splenda had been in line with their own internal forecasts and were not likely to rise in any significant way. It’s getting harder to understand the forces behind Tate & Lyle’s expansion of its Splenda production capacity. A sugar high?
In 2007, the human race will cross a threshold. For the first time in history, a majority of the world’s population will live in cities. Roughly 93 per cent of Venezuela’s population and 81 per cent of Saudi Arabia’s is urban. The UK, too, has felt this keenly: 90 per cent of Britain’s population is urban, according to last year’s UN Population Fund report. London’s increasing size and sway is, of course, resulting in some important economic distortions, in terms of asset prices, concentrations of professional opportunity and exaggerations of inequality. Urbanisation is an issue which gets occasional and inconsistent attention. Tony Blair’s successors will have to address London's challenges in infrastructure, skills and unemployment as a matter of policy.
