An economic slowdown doesn’t necessarily mean mass redundancies, but it can certainly make it harder to keep moving up the career ladder. Graduates might find it harder to get the exact job that they want while experienced managers will need to think carefully about how to avoid getting stuck in one position for too long.

1. Don’t panic. “The best data we have at the moment is that we are not going to go into a full-blown recession,” says Russell Hobby, an associate director at Hay Group, an HR consultancy. “Growth will slow for about 18 months but it will then recover.”

2. Assess your sector. On average, employers are looking to cut about 1 per cent of their work-force, but this varies considerably by industry. Something like a third of all job losses are likely to be in banking and finance, Hobby says. Other potentially shaky sectors include retail and construction; the public sector, particularly local government, is also tightening its budget and is no longer the safe haven that it once was.

3. Graduates will stay in demand. Some firms cut their graduate recruitment programmes during the last economic downturn but found that this left them short of trained staff when it got moving. They’re not likely to make this mistake again. Some get around this by signing graduates up now but inviting them to defer for 12 months. For example, UBS’s 2008 recruits can choose to spend a year doing voluntary work with the bank’s financial support.

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4. Study. With things expected to pick up again in 18 months, it’s worth looking at doing a masters degree in the meantime, Hobby says. Students and new graduates might find that further study is a good way to wait out a slow patch without getting stuck with a period of unemployment on their CVs; people who are already established in their careers, however, need to be sure that the higher degree will add enough value to justify taking time off the ladder.

5. Don’t be dogmatic. Graduates should be more open-minded about their options, Hobby says. For example, if you want to work in finance, you could take a position in industry for the moment and move across when things brighten up. Flexibility will also benefit people already in work, particularly if belt tightening means that where or how they work changes.

6. Reconsider quitting. The idea of jumping ship can be tempting – particularly if you’re desperate for promotion – but it might not be a good idea, says Nick Parfitt, a consultant at Cubiks, an HR consultancy. “For a start, if you quit you lose redundancy protection.” You may move and find that, regardless of how well you do your job, you are cheap to get rid of and therefore vulnerable if redundancies hit.

7. Keep on moving. Stagnating in your present role is not a good idea. Recruiters may peg you as lacking in drive or ambition if you stay in one position for too long. “It’s very important to keep up momentum,” says Max Williamson, a director of careersinaudit.com. “In an economic slowdown that promotion might not come. If you cannot see the next step in the UK, you can look overseas and leapfrog it.” Hobby says: “China, the Middle East and India are growing fast [although] we expect that to slow in a few years.” Go overseas for a time and move back when growth picks up.

8. Internal progress is better than nothing. If an international move is out of the question, look for training or promotion opportunities with your current employer, Parfitt says.

9. Think about your profession. Engineers are in a good position, says Chris Cole, the managing director of Darwin Park, a recruitment consultancy. “Demand is up 19 per cent this year and is set to outstrip supply by 23 per cent by 2010,” he says. Across other professions, companies are continuing to hire people for sales, marketing and customer-facing roles while those in back-office jobs – HR, finance, IT and so on – are more likely to feel the crunch, Hobby says.

10. Don’t demand a pay rise. “If your company is laying people off left right and centre and you walk in and try to negotiate a 20 per cent increase, you will really get up your boss’s nose,” Parfitt says. If you can prove that you’ve added value, consider asking for an increase in the performance-related aspect of your pay – this is easier to justify than a rise in base salary.

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