The hindsight of some financial commentators might suggest that the economic meltdown was entirely predictable. Few businesses, however, will have factored a world-wide implosion of the banking system into their five-year plans.

Indeed, when the Chartered Management Institute produced a report earlier this year asking what lay in store for business over the next ten years, a notional collapse of the Western economy was included in a list of “unexpected” future scenarios, alongside the problems of dealing with employees who might live to 120.

It goes to show that the only certain prediction in business is that something unexpected will happen. But this does not mean that organisations should surrender themselves to fate. There is much managers can do to future proof their companies.

One man with experience of forecasting his way through a recession is Lord Bilimoria, the founder and chairman of Cobra Beer. “We started up as a two-man operation at the beginning of the last recession in 1990,” he says. “One of the first things I did was to go into a computer room in India and draw up a five-year plan on an old Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet.”

Geared up for gloom and doom

Managers are feeling insecure but optimistic that they can steer a path though the current malaise

BACKGROUND

• Don’t panic and stay close to your clients

• Some sources of help and inspiration

• Be master of your own fate

• Communication is key

BACKGROUND

• Look to the constants in a bumpy future

• Managing is easy when times are good

• Are you ready for the future?

• When it comes to the crunch

The prescience shown in that plan – initially brewing beer in India for sale in UK Indian restaurants – has seen Cobra profit not only from growth in the UK restaurant trade but also a huge expansion in the Indian economy.

India could, with its fast-growing economy, offer a lifeline to British companies seeking to trade their way through the recession. “It always disappoints me when I speak with business leaders how few do any business in India,” Bilimoria says. “India presents a huge opportunity both as a market and as a place to get things done. Using workers in India is not outsourcing, it’s right sourcing.”

Lord Bilimoria emphasises the importance of diversification and flexibility for companies facing a difficult future. Cobra, for instance, has expanded its range to include wine, nonalcoholic beer, fruit beer and even an alcoholic ginger beer. “We sell to bars, clubs and supermarkets as well as Indian restaurants and we operate in 50 countries. That allows us to hedge whenever there are difficulties.”

The organisations best placed to face challenging times will be those that stay abreast of technological innovation, according to Ian Ruddy, head of human resources at 02 , the communications company. “Times of austerity can inspire great innovation,” he says. “Technology will continue to evolve so we need to look at how we can use that to help our business.” New media, internet technology and web-based networking are areas of particular promise, he adds.

One certainty is that we will all grow older. This will create some interesting changes in the managerial workforce. As the baby boomers retire they will be replaced by Generation Y. But do Gen Y managers – stereotyped as self-absorbed, personally ambitious but with little company loyalty – have what it takes to steer a business through troubled times?

Emma Reynolds, co-founder of the research company Ask Gen Y, thinks they do. “We aren’t phased by changing technology,” she says. “We already have a global outlook and we have moved on from work/life balance to work/life integration. It’s true that Gen Y has only known the good times but we have the creativity and the ability to collaborate, which will be essential when things get tougher.”

Let us hope so. Our future may be in their hands.

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