An organisation that could predict the future would be very successful indeed. Despite the legions of economists and corporate futurologists, how many foresaw that a tightening in the credit markets would lead to a full-scale crisis?

While predicting the future may be impossible, preparation is not: even in turmoil, there are constants. The first is change itself. No one knows how long markets will take to stabi-lise and companies need to be prepared for all weather, says Patrick Dunne, group communications director of 3i, the private equity group. “The right strategy, resources and governance are always important: having a clear vision that works whether times are good or not.”

Perhaps the most important constant is that good management is the key to surviving, and thriving, amid the turbulence. “It is the moment when the star coaches come into their own. One of the hallmarks of sustainable companies is the resilience of their people,” Dunne says. “They have people who are driven by what is best for the organisation and the capability to develop talent within the organisation.”

The growth of Brazil, Russia, India and China will transform the economic landscape and business models significantly, the Chartered Management Institute’s Management Futures report asserts. In the global landscape, diversity is clearly crucial. But separate research undertaken with the Department for Work and Pensions and the Institute for Employment Studies found that at senior management level, barriers still exist. One in three Asian managers and one in five of black managers cite racial discrimination as a barrier to career progression.

Geared up for gloom and doom

Managers are feeling insecure but optimistic that they can steer a path though the current malaise

BACKGROUND

• Don’t panic and stay close to your clients

• Some sources of help and inspiration

• Be master of your own fate

• Communication is key

BACKGROUND

• Look to the constants in a bumpy future

• Managing is easy when times are good

• Are you ready for the future?

• When it comes to the crunch

Diversifying as an organisation is equally important, Dunne says. “Internationally we are more diverse than we have ever been. Our Asian and European businesses are in quite different periods of development.”

Glimpse the future and one thing is clear: technology. Libraries have existed for thousands of years, but Dame Lynne Brindley, chief executive of the British Library, says the digital age is a huge challenge. “The reality of a great library is being completely rocked by the revolution in technology.” As early as 2020 the British Library’s content may be primarily digital. It faces decisions such as whether to record electronic documents such as blogs and how to cater for the Google generation – people who have never experienced life before the internet.

The library’s answer is nurturing talent. “Because we are a unique institution, opportunities for recruitment are limited,” Dame Lynne explains. New skills training and lifelong learning are paramount to help it to meet the challenges and retain bright staff. But it must hold on to old skills, she says. Most of the library’s book and paper conservators are reaching retirement. The library anticipated that and is working with the University of the Arts London on a two-year employer-led degree course.

However, Alan Downey, chief operating officer at KPMG and chairman of the Institute of Business Consulting, considers that developing “personal capital” as an individual – “having skills that are valuable and transferable” – is more important than being part of a big organisation that will nurture you.

Third-party support is also an established way to future proof, Downey says. “Consultants can provide firms with access to skills that they simply do not have in-house.” A trend towards payment by results enables organisations to spread the risk.

Ultimately, the most valuable defence against the threats of the future is talent, he concludes. “For almost all organisations the question is: do you have the key people with the right qualities and attributes to take you through the difficult times?”

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