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Yes, if you think the test for membership of the group of leading industrialised countries should be economic influence. Russia has shown itself in the past week to be a fragile power, unworthy of the G8 badge. Oil, gas and nuclear weapons; that’s about the sum of its assets.
But no, there are no grounds for expulsion if the complaint is simply that Russia has been "bullying" Ukraine. In these gas wars, Russia has been weak, inept, obnoxious — and in the right.
It was stupid of President Putin to turn off the gas to Ukraine — but you can see why the drama proved irresistible. The threat of turning off the lights of another capital must have seemed a uniquely visible demonstration of power.
He was wrong to do it, though, because it advertised Russia’s weakness, not its strength. One glance at those maps of pipelines spreading over Europe should have told him why. Russia needs Ukraine and several others to help to deliver its gas. And it needs them all as customers.
It calls itself an "energy superpower", but that is a contradiction in terms; look at Saudi Arabia. If the ability to turn gas taps on and off is one of its strongest cards then it holds very few.
True, the oil price surge has brought Russia unexpected wealth and lifted the threat of crippling deficits.
But in the years since the end of the Soviet Union it has failed to use the flood of foreign investment to diversify its industry beyond energy. When fashion fades and the wilfully optimistic circulars from brokers finally acknowledge the implications of Putin’s authoritarian unpredictability for investors, Russia’s ability to attract foreign capital will wither. This week’s brutal action has only brought that day closer. Putin’s plan to make "energy security " the theme of Russia’s year-long presidency of the G8 now looks comic.
He may well have done so (Russia assumed the rotating presidency on Sunday), but others will have heard only one lesson: that supplies from Russia are not secure. Putin has given nuclear power in Europe a boost beyond its dreams. He may not quite get Germany to go nuclear, but he has got the Italian Cabinet talking hard, as Claudio Scajola, its Industry Minister, said this week.
Russia never qualified for the G8 because of the undeveloped state of its economy. By rights it should never have been let in. But the decision to admit it nonetheless was an expression of romantic hope, back in those brief days when Russia seemed to be embracing democracy. If arbitrary clubs like the G8 are good for anything, it might as well be for such quixotic gestures, which may act as encouragement to those who desperately want to be members.
As it has turned out, the incentive failed. But that does not mean that Russia should now be thrown out for overbearing and undemocratic behaviour.
True, many of Putin’s actions in the past two years come under that heading. He has tightened his grip on the media, on supposedly democratic institutions and elections. Europe and the US cannot regard that with comfort. But almost all comment this week has portrayed Russia as the villain, the giant punishing brave Ukraine for the insult of wanting democracy.
No question, Russia’s behaviour has been obnoxious. It is designed, presumably, to threaten Ukrainians into voting in March for a Russia-loving parliament.
It is, too, almost impossible to overstate the insult that Russia perceived in Ukraine’s 2004 "Orange Revolution". For many Russians, Ukraine is the key to Russia becoming great again. If it is "lost", that dream becomes impossible. But to label Russia the bully and Ukraine the victim is a caricature. It ignores the role of Ukraine, down many years, in skimming off gas profits.
It ignores the many levers that Ukraine has over Russia, through the huge web of other trade that links them. And it ignores Russia’s right to charge the market price for its gas. It had given some notice, through price rises to other countries, that it was thinking of this, even if the abruptness of the demand was a surprise.
No one much doubts that, in the end, Ukraine will pay the price for gas that Russia is asking, and that Russia has a right to ask it. Of all the unpleasant things that Putin has done, this is not the worst.
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