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The message is clear, though. “We haven’t even begun to fully exploit the opportunities we have opened up in international markets,” said Leahy.
He believes that in five to ten years the group’s fast-expanding international operations — which currently account for about a quarter of profits — could overtake its domestic business.
“Of course, if we buy businesses it could happen sooner,” he said. “In the past ten years we have gone from a home market of 60m people to 2 billion people worldwide and in those countries we have either market-leading positions or fastest-growing businesses, so actually the future for Tesco is very promising in terms of its ability to access growth.”
China, India and America are the big three for Leahy. “If you are looking at the 21st century, these are the places to put your chips. Clearly, China and India are the growing markets, but actually you have to remember that the United States still accounts for a third of the world’s GDP. Everyone knows about China and India, but you also have to remember the United States.”
Tesco is currently the third-biggest grocery retailer by sales — only Wal-Mart and Carrefour are bigger. Leahy points out that in terms of market value Tesco could be regarded as the second biggest.
So will Tesco in ten years be as big as, or even bigger than, Wal-Mart? “No is the answer,” said Leahy with a grin. But then he pondered light-heartedly: “Do you mean as big as they are now? “Any company that is successful in the world of international retailing will end up being a very big company.
“How big [will Tesco become]? Who knows? The instructive thing is to look back at the growth of Tesco and then look forward and see if there the same opportunity to grow — well, not in the UK, but as a group. ()
Is there the opportunity to grow in the same way? Absolutely. So Tesco can carry on growing at the same kinds of rates it has been growing at.”
Next year Tesco will launch its convenience-store business on the west coast of America. Leahy said the US has the attractive combination of a growing population and high disposable incomes. In contrast to Europe, the American market is lightly regulated, so if you build a successful business it can be rolled out rapidly.
Analysts at Shore Capital are already predicting that the US business will be a success and will rapidly expand to other areas, including New York, Chicago and Florida.
“Tesco hasn’t gone to America to open a few convenience stores on the west coast,” said analyst Clive Black. Shore’s working model projects that by 2020 Tesco could have 4,000 stores in America generating sales of £21.5 billion and profit of £1.3 billion.
Leahy just smiled when asked if Tesco would seek to conquer the whole of America. “It is a format designed for the American consumer,” he said pointedly. “But we are starting on the west coast and there are a lot of people on the west coast.”
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