David Wighton, Business Editor's commentary
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Say what you like about the Chinese, they certainly know how to do economic stimulus. The 3.9 per rise in British private car sales in June announced this week was hailed as a great success. It was clear evidence that the Government’s “bangers for cash” car scrappage scheme and other efforts to revive the economy were starting to work.
Big deal. In China, June car sales were up 48 per cent. Now that’s what I call a stimulus.
It just shows what you can do when you own the banks. Yes, I know we own our banks, too, but that’s different. Stephen Hester is not appointed by the Communist Party.
When China decided it needed a stimulus package, it chose to create one by ramping up government spending and opening the lending spigots.
Bank chiefs were told to flood the economy with credit and competed with each other to get the most money out the door. The result was a tidal wave of cash, with bank lending in June twice the level in May.
The authorities are now worried about inflation, a property bubble and future bad debts. But it has kept the economy growing at a decent lick despite the slump in exports. This is good news for many foreign companies, particularly carmakers. Jaguar Land Rover will this year sell many more than the 12,456 vehicles it shifted in China in 2008.
But China’s growth may actually be a net negative for Britain in the short term because of its impact on commodity prices. As Barclays Capital pointed out in a recent report, the effect of Chinese growth on the price of oil and metals seems disproportionate to its share of the world economy.
For the British economy, the near-doubling of the oil price in the past six months is a high price to pay for selling a few more Jags.
Although the oil price has fallen back by more than $10 a barrel in the past two weeks, economists warn that at above $60 it is one more reason to be nervous that flickers of life in the British economy could be snuffed out.
Recent signs have been discouraging, notably the 0.5 per cent fall in factory output in May published this week.
Against this background, yesterday’s decision by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee not to extend its quantitative easing programme was a surprise.
The purchases of bonds using newly created money have had limited impact so far.
Public comments by members of the committee highlighting the continued weakness of lending had led many observers to expect that the Bank would step up its purchases of bonds to the £150 billion maximum authorised by the Chancellor, and possibly seek permission for more.
The committee may merely be waiting until it completes its next set of quarterly forecasts next month before pressing ahead with better targeted purchases. Let’s hope so.
The Chinese are clearly storing up serious potential problems in the future. But the British economy is still in such a fragile state that there remains more risk in doing too little than too much.
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