Interest in the risks of carrying out business in Mexico shot up in April in light of swine flu fears, but even so Thailand's political insurgency ranked it highest on a monitor of political and security risk concern among international companies.

In March, before news broke of a potential swine flu epidemic, risk consultancy Control Risks measured that a sample of companies comprising two thirds of the Fortune 500, expressed more interest in Mexico than any other country. In April this interest grew by 12 per cent as fears of a lethal pandemic spread. However, this was not enough to keep pace with businesses interest in the situation in Thailand, which rose by 306 per cent on the previous month.

Control Risks’ monitor takes into account the degree to which companies have an interest in operating in each country as well as their concern about the political and security environment there. In the case of Thailand, violent street protests, roused by public provocation from Thaksin Shinawatra, the former Prime Minister, combined with an assassination attempt on the current premier, Sondhi Limthongkul, unnerved businessmen and investors.

In addition to enduring concerns about drug-related violence in Mexico and the rising panic in relation to swine flu, President Calderón’s announcement regarding the possibility of his country resorting to an International Monetary Fund loan is also likely to have sparked interest at the beginning of the month.

India and Pakistan maintained prominent positions at third and fourth respectively because of security fears in the former and the general election in the latter.

However, Indonesia rose into the top 10 countries based on interest in the legislative elections taking place in the country. Indonesia went to the polls in early April -- only the third time it has had a democratic vote since the end of President Suharto’s dictatorship ended in 1998. Observers feared an upsurge in violence, given this election was the first under new rules raising the vote threshold for parties, but voting day and the subsequent count went peacefully.

In Papua, angry voters protested at the election commission’s poor management of the poll, but security was maintained. Moreover, despite concerns over voter list irregularities and the commission’s inadequate distribution of ballots in some areas, the election results on May 9 were accepted without incident.

Businesses also focused on South Africa and Brazil in increasing numbers. Again an election was the key factor in South Africa, where investors paid close attention in the wake of a divisive presidential succession race to the ousting of outgoing president Thabo Mbeki in September 2008 and the emergence of a breakaway faction from within ruling-party ranks.

As anticipated, the polls – widely hailed for their free and fair conduct – returned the ANC to power with a still-sizeable majority, but newly inaugurated President Jacob Zuma faces a plethora of challenges if he wishes to steer his nation through a watershed moment of economic downturn, heightened popular expectations and serious institutional constraints.

Key cabinet appointments reflected a desire to appease jittery markets and should dispel fears of radical policy drift. Still, investors will now be keen to see signs that the new governing arrangement constitutes a recipe for progress, rather than plain paralysis.

Two drivers stand out to explain interest in Brazil during April. The first is related to the São Paulo stock exchange's ongoing rally and its bounce during 2009, particularly since mid-March. After a sharp decline in the value of equities during the last quarter of 2008, bullish foreign investors seem to be returning and thus interest in political developments that affect the market has increased.

As in the rest of the world, there are still questions about whether this is a typical "sucker rally" in a bear market, since hard economic data has not shown an equivalent rebound. For the moment, businesses seem to be following developments closely and this trend is likely to persist.

The second factor is linked to the natural resources sector. April is traditionally a peak month for landless activism in Brazil, because of the anniversary of the killing of 19 land activists by the police on April 17 1996 in Eldorado dos Carajás (Pará state).The Landless Workers’ Movement (MST) typically increases demonstrations during this period and, therefore, mining companies and agribusiness conglomerates are usually more cautious to keep stringent security measures.

Thailand: 10,278 page hits
Mexico: 9,596
India: 7,225
Pakistan: 5,084
Nigeria: 3,834
Indonesia: 3,401
China: 3,184
South Africa: 3,022
Brazil: 2,967
Algeria: 2,872

The figres are based on the number of times Control Risks’ clients requested each country page on its Country Risk Forecast online service. Country Risk Forecast provides analysis of the political, operational, security and terrorism developments in 200 countries. The ranking refers to the measure of the interest, among the 600 companies that subscribe to the service, in those countries during a particular month. The data takes into account their interest in that country as a place to do business per se, as well as their concerns about the political and security risks there. As such, this list should be seen not as a list of the highest-risk countries, but rather as an indication of the degree to which a country features on the international business risk radar.