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The British government report on the economics of climate change by the former World Bank chief economist Sir Nicholas Stern, for example, indicates that the market for low-carbon technologies could generate $500 billion (€390 billion) by 2050.
But that may be conservative. The energy and transport sectors alone now represent almost 15% of the $43,000 billion global economy. If low-carbon, energy-efficient technologies grow to just 10% of this over the next 45 years, that’s a $645 billion market. And that does not include any environmental innovations in manufacturing, consumer goods or many other industries.
Society seems to be approaching a tipping point in its attitude to the environment and, at times like these, new markets are born. Innovation and productivity are unleashed. That’s why some are thinking the drive towards greater resource and energy efficiency will rival the internet boom.
In America, investment in the emerging “cleantech” sector has grown from less than 2% of all venture-capital investments in 1999 to more than 13% today, making it the third-largest investment category.
In Europe, more than $2.3 billion has been invested in clean technologies in the past three-and-a-half years. Much of this is going into green power technologies, from thin-film solar panels that can be applied direct to windows, to micro-wind turbines that can be mounted just about anywhere, to biofuels that are derived from agricultural waste.
While some green technologies have yet to reach a scale or cost to compete with conventional alternatives, being green is no longer simply about being responsible. In developed economies, the new green is as much about style, performance and comfort as it is efficiency. In developing economies, green technologies are helping to raise the standard of living more quickly, cheaply and cleanly, leapfrogging the old western model of development.
Some sceptics argue that continued growth in the market for low-carbon, energy-efficient technologies will depend on continued high prices for oil and carbon. But, if the early signs of climate change continue to grow, the market will simply demand its own solutions.
Will addressing climate change and energy scarcity cost us? Of course. There will be winners and losers, and economic disruption. But for those who seize the opportunity successfully, green will be the new gold.
Bill Gates became the richest man on earth by helping billions of people to participate in the information age. But I predict that the next Gates will rise through knowledge of green power. Could it be you?
Nicholas Moore Eisenberger, managing principal of Green Order, an environmental business strategy and marketing firm based in New York
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