WHILE the overall Irish market has been going gangbusters for the past four months, soaring 20% to record highs above 8,500, Elan has gained only 6% to reach €12.35. It appears the roll-out of Tysabri, its multiple-sclerosis drug, following its re-launch in June, has not be going as well as some brokers had expected.

With the pharma group set to unveil its third-quarter results on Wednesday, analysts at Davy and Goodbody have pulled back their near-term sales forecasts for the treatment. Both, however, continue to believe that it has blockbuster potential.

For the reporting quarter, Davy expects the group to post a 16% increase in sales to $142.9m (€113.3m), helped by the first-time contribution of Tysabri and soaring sales for its antibiotic Maxipime. For the moment at least, the group’s manufacturing revenue and royalties continue to be the main source of sales.

The market will be looking for an update on clinical trials for Elan’s most advanced Alzheimer’s drug Bapineuzumab, a joint venture with Wyeth. The hope is that it will reach the final stage of tests early next year. This, and any soothing noises the group can offer on Tysabri, could inject a bit more life into the stock.

Provident slides

It hardly inspires confidence. For the second time in eight months Provident Financial, the British doorstep lender, has suffered a setback overseas.

The timing is pretty poor given its plans to demerge the international division next year in an attempt to unlock value.

Last week, Provident admitted that it will be forced to stop writing business in Hungary for a month after a run-in with the regulator.

The Hungarian watchdog is demanding that Provident overhauls computer systems and makes its self-employed agents full-time staff.

More seriously, the clash comes after the Polish business was hit by poor credit controls and regulators capping the amount of interest charged on loans.

The latest problems follow a tough 12 months for Provident. Last year the company closed Yes Car Credit — which sold cars on credit to people unable to borrow from mainstream lenders — at a thumping cost of £141m (£210.4m) having paid £77m for it in 2002.

To be fair, Provident has made a success of the international business which last year accounted for a quarter of profits. Still, last week’s warning shows investors should tread carefully.