ECONOMIES enjoying robust growth in output, such as the United States and China, have so far managed to shrug off the stultifying effects of high oil import prices. Spain, which has the strongest momentum of any big eurozone economy, expanded output by a further 0.9 per cent in the second quarter of this year, raising year-on-year growth to 3.4 per cent.

Where recovery is fragile, however, pushing oil prices to new records is like hitting a man when he is down. The extra cash sucked out of the pockets of consumers and the profits of industry is already exerting a depressing influence. Taken as a whole, the eurozone is now taking over from Japan as the weakest link in the world economy.

Output in the single currency area expanded by only 0.3 per cent in the second quarter, cutting the annualised rate of growth to 1.1 per cent. Oil is acting like a foreign tax on consumers. Household spending fell in the second quarter for the first time in more than three years. Given that consumer spending was already the missing link for a more sustained economic recovery, that is gloomy news for low-growth countries such as Germany and Italy.

Germany, the biggest and most stolid element in the eurozone, would be delighted to achieve even the modest eurozone average. In the middle of an election campaign, Wolfgang Clement, the Finance Minister, admitted that oil prices threatened the feeble recovery. The German industry federation, which feels under little restraint, cut its growth forecast from 1 per cent to 0.75 per cent.

Energy costs now account for nearly half the annual rate of inflation, which remains just above the European Central Bank’s desired ceiling. As other one-off effects wear out, economists project a further rise to about 2.3 per cent. Inflation is lower in France, thanks to its dependence on nuclear power. Growth prospects there are correspondingly higher, although the Government now seems to expect something nearer 1.5 per cent than 2 per cent this year. Germany now seems to depend even more on speeding up internal reforms to get more people into work and earning money to spend — preferably on local services rather than Chinese goods.