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Remember BAE Systems explaining the obvious synergies of manufacturing fighter aircraft and MG Rover cars? Sounded like rubbish then; sounds like rubbish now. Not too many years later, our cynical instincts were confirmed when the company admitted the synergy was, in fact, nil (unless you were Swedish) and promptly offloaded MG Rover onto BMW.
When it comes to American adventures, British firms consistently prove that the “special relationship” is a clash of cultures joined by no more than a common language.
Remember the Midland’s adventures in California with Crocker Bank, forever dubbed in the City of London as Crocker s***? Closer to home and in another life, I was part of the Stagecoach team that walked away from an epic bus crash following the takeover of Coach USA.
And now, six years after embarking on its own West Coast road movie, ScottishPower has sold off its US subsidiary PacifiCorp. To judge how radical this move is, just look at the board: one executive director and no fewer than three non-execs are American, specifically appointed to ease the company into what was going to be its growth market.
The market was shocked but relieved, as it quickly marked up ScottishPower shares, realising that the biggest drag on the price was being removed. If there’s a bid premium, it’s at least a year away as the regulatory mesh is unravelled.
Shareholders, though stunned, are generally happy with the decision, though few understand why the PPM rump in the US is being retained. The basic UK business is in good shape. The problem is management credibility.
Ian Russell was part of the team that sold the West Coast story. It didn’t happen. Amid power cuts and protests from Indian tribes, PacifiCorp quickly turned sour.
Russell’s defenders say he has done well this week, finding a credible buyer at a decent price, and shrinking ScottishPower to a profitable domestic business with a big customer base. His critics point across Scotland to Perth, where Ian Marchant has made boring an art form. Marchant has taken Scottish and Southern Energy down a diametrically opposed route, sticking strictly to a domestic agenda with no international risk and no destruction of shareholder value.
The contrast is stark. SSE’s market cap is well over £8 billion; post cashback, SP’s will be less than £6 billion. SSE is returning a dividend of 42p; SP is paying 22p. SSE is a player; SP is in play. And Marchant earns £610,000 against Russell’s £1.1m.
For Scotland, SSE’s customer record makes the possibility of a well-regulated single Scots power company preferable to a French or German takeover. But this is not yet a takeover story.
Even if ScottishPower survives as an independent company, Russell has many months of humiliating grind ahead of him. His strategic failure will inhibit investor support when he looks for new growth strategies. Russell has been talking to investors for a decade. As an old City hand, he knows the score. He knows that by doing the right thing by shareholders he has damaged his own credibility.
With a strong succession plan in the shape of David Nish, I’d be surprised to see Russell lasting more than a year. The question is — does he do boring?
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