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It will soon be make-your-mind-up time for Ian Livingston, who has been BT’s chief executive for just three months. His telecoms group has had a tough time, with the shares falling 43% in a year, underperforming the FTSE All-Share index by 32%.
The dividend, raised to two-thirds of earnings during the Bland-Verwaayen regime, is yielding a chunky 9% as the stock trades on a bargain-basement seven times this year’s earnings.
Investors fear the payout is not sustainable beyond this year. Capital spending is rising and margins are under pressure, not least at the Global Services division, where they remain low.
Telecoms stocks are meant to be defensive, but that does not ring true in all cases. BT will have to make a huge outlay as it tries to keep up with new technologies.
With the vision of optic-fibre networks providing high-speed internet access for all, the government and regulator Ofcom are expectant. The trouble is they have yet to lay out what is in it for BT, other than a great swell of national pride.
BT scrapped a share buyback at the same time as announcing £1.5 billion for new network spending, suggesting that money is tight. Citigroup points out that the company is already pouring 16% of its revenues into capital expenditure, against the European fixed-line average of 10%.
Now is the time to hustle. BT’s effort to roll back its universal service obligation — a lot of which dates back to privatisation in 1984 — is being overshadowed by Michael Grade’s campaign to cut ITV’s own regulatory burden. It needs to secure a deal that lets it make a decent return on investment.
Livingston also has big decisions to take on whether the BT created over six years by Ben Verwaayen should keep its shape. With net debt of £10.6 billion and uncertainty over its pension deficit, it is questionable whether the company can fight on all fronts.
There is great debate around BT Vision, the company’s TV offering that pairs video-on-demand with Freeview, a work in progress. It has enlisted only 282,000 subscribers so far, despite having the largest UK broadband base of 4.5m.
No wonder, then, that BT is weighing up a bid for the Premiership football rights to make Vision a must-have. It already relies partly on Setanta’s football coverage to entice customers. When Sir Christopher Bland was chairman, it flirted heavily with broadcasting and considered joining the ITV Digital consortium.
Should BT place an even bigger bet now? Telecoms companies making a move into media have a chequered history. Telefonica floundered with Big Brother producer Endemol. AOL-Time Warner failed to deliver. Neil Berkett, chief executive of Virgin Media, which once had a tilt at ITV, wouldn’t dream of such a move. He wants to pull back from owning television channels rather than buying more of them.
Yet a combination of BT and ITV looks intriguing — both were once monopolies but are now battling to adapt to rampant competition and technological threats.
Of course, that assumes that BSkyB, 39% owned by News Corporation, ultimate owner of The Sunday Times, doesn’t park its 17.9% stake in ITV out of reach.
It is fashionable to say ITV shows nothing anyone wants to watch any more. Try telling that to the 10m Coronation Street viewers, many of whom would pay 50p a time to watch tomorrow’s episode tonight or for behind-the-scenes footage.
Just because Grade has turned his back on pay-TV, it doesn’t mean a future owner of ITV has to. Investors will want to hear something special from Livingston alongside half-year results on November 13. How brave is he prepared to be?
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