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The British public expects the cost of living to soar at more than double the rate of official targets in the coming year, according to the Bank of England’s latest survey of inflation expectations.
Most respondents forecast the average rate of inflation at 4.3 per cent in the next year, more than double the 2 per cent target, according to the Bank’s quarterly attitudes survey.
The perception makes it less likely that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will cut interest rates at its next monthly meeting. The MPC is concerned that an extended period of rising consumer price inflation, caused by higher utility and food prices as well as a weaker pound, could lead to a long-lasting rise in inflation expectations.
These could then fuel higher wage demands and increasing inflation risks.
The results of the survey reflect the growing pressure on the public from surging petrol, food and energy costs at a time when banks, hit by the credit crunch, are raising mortgage rates.
The survey put average estimates of the rate of inflation at 4.9 per cent, compared with its present level of 3 per cent.
Experts at Capital Economics, said: "While the link between the public’s inflation expectations and wider inflationary pressures is uncertain to say the least, these figures will reinforce fears that the next move in interest rates could be up."
Howard Archer, chief UK and European Economist at Global Insight, said: "We still believe that the ultimate next move in interest rates will be down, but the sharp rise in inflation expectations in May reinforces our view that the Bank of England will not be prepared to relax monetary policy for many months to come."
The MPC was also given a cue for a possible rise in rates after more than half of respondents said it would be better to raise borrowing costs than let prices in shops rise more quickly.
Nearly half of respondents expect interest rates to rise over the coming year.
The Bank kept interest rates on hold at 5 per cent last week, despite growing evidence of an economic slowdown as it grapples with price pressures from record oil prices.
The minutes of its May meeting - when borrowing costs were also left unchanged - warned that lower rates “would make it more difficult to keep inflation expectations in line with the target."
Today’s survey, however, offers more evidence that inflation expectations are spiralling, despite the recent programme of cuts by the Bank, which reduced interest rates three times between December and April.
Mr Archer said: “We suspect that November is now likely to be the earliest month for a cut unless the economy really falls off a cliff over the summer.”
Money Central: Inflation buster - the 10 items that have fallen in price most this year
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Gregory of E Sussex, if that's your view it is no wonder we are so behind in design technology. And schools are falling shoprt in Science & Physics. Well I am still waiting for the offer because when they get desperate enough they may respond to my request no less than 50 Million pounds.
Daphne Kenward, Cambridge, UK
Inflation is a worldwide problem. It needs a worldwide response. Oil prices are the basis of this current inflation cycle. Its obviously a United Nations matter. The oil nations need to be sanctioned. The quicker the world breaks its dependance on oil the better.
Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia
For normal people the inflation rate is already at least double that of CPI. if not even RPI. Food, fuel, transport, housing etc has all moved beyond the capacity of the lowest paid and is now being noticed by those on median wages. Perhaps the CPI is a measure of inflation for the rich.
Steve, London, UK
Daphne, it is most likely that they would not pay YOU 1P.
Gregory, St-Leonards-on-Sea, E Sussex
Of course raising interests rates will lower fuel prices. It will strengthen the pound, and imports will cost less. Do it - and do it now - before others do and negate the effect.
j, hassocks, sussex
How much would anyone out there PAY me to come up with a solution to cut fuel consumption by 50% for cars and Lorries. Is any one out there as a Company or Government could pay me 50 Million pounds. I think I have the answer.
Daphne Kenward, Cambridge, UK
To Mary J
By far the largest percentage of immigrants to the UK have come from Poland & other East European countries - I don't think they would like your description of their countries as Third World and culturally incompatible
Graham, Bristol, UK
It is all the game of the free market. We panic. They make dosh. We pay for it. The only answer is don't buy the stuff. The forecourts will soon be in a fix if they don't sell enough. That might teach them all a lesson.
David, Swansea, UK
The economy IS off a cliff; people pretend that it isn't because it hasn't splattered over the rocks beneath - yet! But the drivers are clearly in place. We're in trouble, that we won't escape by easy fixes like interest rates, that will worsen until we admit this and take hard, painful action.
Noel Falconer MEcon, COUIZA, France
Message for Ian Dickson. It is my personal belief that the steep rise in oil prices is a direct result of the Fed lowering US interest rates to 2%. Anybody holding US dollars would efffectively lose money by continuing to hold them hence the switch from dollars to commodities.
Simon, London, UK
The headline of this article is highly misleading. There is nothing in the article to suggest that the cost of living will double over the year, merely that people thing the rate of increase (inflation) will be double the target rate of increase.
Will Powell, Edinburgh, UK
Surely one of the reasons why social mobility is failing in your country is mass immigration of low-skilled people from culturally incompatible Third World nations? If you import poverty, you get poorer as a society. Funny how that works, isn't it?.
MaryJ, San Francisco, Calif.
Our economy is falling like that of America's. Oil prices are high to fund the war in Iraq, just as America's fuel prices soared for the exact same reason as I lived there. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit a depression, it's a repeat like the Vietnam war.
David Redshaw, Newcastle,
Mr Leslie could be correct.But this is the tragedy of the setting of the government interest rate. It is based on inflation criteria that have absolutely no meaning to the ordinary working person or pensioner,who can never afford to buy luxury items.
Their money goes on life's basic necessities.
nic, paphos, cyprus
Unfortunately the rising costs of food, fuel and energy is not going to be reduced with any rise in interest rates. However there will be a sharp fall in the purchase of luxury items, which will come down in price and enable the government interest rate to be reduced.
David Leslie, Perth, Scotland
Is there anyone who has a clue as to why oil prices are rising so fast? We're told that supplies are well in hand, we know about the government's grasping taxes and we hear about speculators making a killing on future dealings - why isn't anyone in authority doing something to curtail this excess?
Ian Dickson, Brighton, UK