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In a split vote mirroring differences among the Bank’s own rate-setters, and the quandary facing them over conflicting risks to the economy, the expert Times panel voted by six to three for borrowing costs to stay on hold this month.
The Bank has insisted that it will not be influenced by political considerations over the election when it announces its verdict on rates today. But as its two-day policy meeting began yesterday, City economists were unanimous in predicting that rates would remain at 4.75 per cent.
The division of opinion among The Times’s economic and financial experts, who shadow the Bank’s rates decisions, reflects the dilemma facing the Bank’s own committee. As for the Bank’s MPC, April marks the second month in succession in which The Times’s panel has been split. The Times MPC voted five to four in March to recommend a quarter-point rate increase.
Sticking with their call for higher rates this month were Diane Coyle, of Enlightenment Economics, Sir Steve Robson, former Second Permanent Secretary at the Treasury, and Martin Weale, director of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research.
All three cited a growing lack of spare capacity in an economy that is still expanding at a robust pace, close to its long-run trend rate, rising cost pressures, including from record oil prices, and a tight jobs market.
Ms Coyle argued that the time was right “to nip cost pressures in the bud”. Sir Steve said that strong growth and no spare capacity in the economy meant that earnings were rising quickly. Mr Weale said that the surge in oil prices was an additional concern.
Among members of The Times MPC, Rupert Pennant-Rea, former Deputy Governor of the Bank, said that rates would probably have to rise but the timing had to be right and should come after new and compelling evidence.
However, Sir Alan Budd, a founding member of the Bank’s MPC, and Geoffrey Dicks, of RBS Financial Markets, were more concerned about weak consumer spending.
They were joined in backing unchanged rates by Martin Taylor, former Barclays chief executive, Paul Myners, the fund manager and interim chairman of Marks & Spencer, and Anatole Kaletsky of The Times.
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